Stocks Projecting Early-Nov Spike Highs; Sell-off into early-Dec Likely.
10/29/21 INSIIDE Track – “The S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 waited until Sept. ’21 – 4 months from the May ’21 cycle high and 4 months before a related cycle high in Jan ’22 – to set a higher peak while most stocks and indexes set lower peaks. In doing so, they fulfilled their weekly LHR indicators that portended 1 – 2 month peaks in the first half of Sept. (see Sept ’21 INSIIDE Track for details).
That led to the largest sell-off in the S+P 500 since Oct. ‘20 and the largest in the NQ-100 since Feb. ‘21. As they spiked to new lows on Oct. 1/4 – in sync with daily cycles and weekly trend patterns – it became apparent that a multi-week rally could follow. That was reinforced by the DJTA exhibiting more bullish signs as it turned multiple trends up in early-Oct.:
10-09-21 Weekly Re-Lay: “Stock Indices are rebounding with the S+P 500 & NQ-100 bouncing from new multi-month lows set on Oct 1/4 while most other stocks and indexes are continuing their overall rallies from the Sept 20 weekly cycle lows.
In those indices, secondary lows (‘b’ wave lows) were set on Oct 1/4 and ushered in the projected ‘c’ wave advances that are now unfolding – with price action showing additional upside is still possible.
The DJTA – which has been leading this rebound since bottoming in perfect sync with weekly cycles on Sept 20… remain capable of extending gains…”
However, it was the S+P 500 that gave the most reliable signal by correcting far enough and long enough to twice neutralize its weekly uptrend… but not far enough to turn that weekly trend down. That showed some lingering resilience and altered expectations related to the extent of an October rally.
It bottomed on Oct 1 while fulfilling its initial 2 – 4 week downside target at 4264 – 4274/ESZ (setting a low at 4260/ESZ) and testing/holding its rising weekly 21 Low MAC. The weekly trend signal projected a rally back to (at least) the highs before another multi-week peak would become more likely.
10-16-21 Weekly Re-Lay: “That is corroborated by the weekly trend action in the S+P 500. That index could not turn its weekly trend down – while dropping right to its weekly & monthly HLS levels (4264 – 4274/ESZ was the downside target for its Sept. ’21 sell-off) AND its rising weekly 21 Low MAC on two consecutive weeks – before resuming its advance.
That pattern projects a retest of its high (4539/ESZ) and triggered the latest rally at the same time the DJIA & NQ-100 weekly trends…”
As that rally was unfolding, the DJTA turned its weekly trend back up – signaling that the Sept 20th low was the bottom of its 4+-month correction – its largest correction since 1Q ‘20 and its longest correction since 4Q ‘18 (all linked by the 16-Month Cycle). On Oct 15, the DJTA closed back above its weekly 21 High MAC for the first time since late-June – also hinting the Sept 20 low was a significant bottom.
In all of these indexes, there is likely to be more whipsawing – back and forth – between now and the next multi-month cycle high (likely in 1Q ‘22). The NQ-100, Russell 2000 and other indexes have the potential for another intermediate low in early-Dec. ‘21.”
Stocks continue to trace out a lengthy topping process that began with weaker equities and indexes peaking in May/June ’21 – the time for (at least) a 3 – 6 month peak. Other (stronger) stocks and indexes – like the S+P 500 and Nasdaq 100 – were/are projected to set a sequence of intermediate highs in May/June, early-Sept and now early-Nov ’21. If fulfilled, that would project another sharp sell-off into early-Dec – when a multi-week low is most likely.
That would be even more likely if indexes like the DJTA and Russell 2000 – which are projecting new highs in the coming weeks (the 5th of 5th wave culmination; an overall wave structure stemming from the March ’20 lows) – are able to reach upside price targets and fulfill the criteria for wave ‘5’ peaks. Continued divergence is expected, so individual stocks and indexes need to be examined independently – both during the time for this next early-Nov – early-Dec correction AND for the subsequent time frame from early-Dec ’21 into 1Q ’22.
Where are the various indexes most likely to peak – in early-Nov and/or in 1Q ‘22?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.