Stocks Reinforce Focus on Future Dec ‘25/Jan ’26 Cycle Peak; ~2-Year Cycle Returns in Jan ’26.
09-03-25 – “In recent months, two key markets have provided examples of intra- (within) and inter- (between) market Cycle Progression synergy. Those two markets were equities and Bitcoin/cryptocurrency.
One of the key facets of that analysis was for both of them to rally from early-April into late-July and reach new all-time highs (DJIA, S+P 500, NQ-100 & Bitcoin)…
Bitcoin peaked in lockstep with that analysis and has been going through a topping-and-reversing phase ever since.
Stock indexes also surged into late-July/early-August and have diverged a little since then… In both cases, there was equal focus on future/ subsequent cycles that peak in late-2025… with a couple related cycles allowing for that to stretch into January ‘26, if intervening price action corroborates…
Before getting into the immediate outlook, it is good to step back and take a broader look at equities. That allows for a review of some of the over-arching analysis & related Cycle Progressions – in order to refresh the broader, overall perspective…
First, there is the 17-Year Cycle that was projected to spur a 20 – 30% (possibly 35 – 50%) plunge in most stocks in 2025 and potentially 2026. That outlook was powerfully fulfilled when stocks plummeted into early-April ’25 – with many of them suffering 30 – 50% losses as they headed into those cycle lows.
As stated in early-2025, the one consolation with these dramatic stock plunges is that each recovery has occurred quicker than the preceding one (although a second bout of serious selling is possible in 2026). That led into the subsequent analysis…
Second, there was/is the outlook for a subsequent rally – to new all-time highs in the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 – in line with monthly trends, monthly 21 MACs and over-arching monthly cycles in early-April ‘25. That has also been fulfilled.
Third, there is the pair of pivotal cycles in the second half of 2025 – both of which were/are likely to time the culmination of significant rallies and usher in critical tops.
The first of those was in late-July/early-August. Many stocks & indexes extended beyond that time period – reinforcing the old cycle adage ‘uptrends shift to the right’ (denoting that a final high can occur ‘to the right’ – on a chart – of where cycles peak).
The NQ-100 peaked in late-July and then spiked above – but did not give a weekly close above – the late-July ’25 peak, initially validating that cycle. Some key stocks (AMZN, ORCL, AMD. MU, NVDA, META) acted similarly and are showing signs of an intermediate top and reversal lower.
More on that in a minute.
The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression.
Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle.
The ~2-Year Cycle was examined frequently in late-2021/early-2022 – when a 6 – 12-month peak was forecast for Jan 2022. At the time, it was fulfilling a ~2-Year low (Jan/Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’20) – (high; Jan 2022) Cycle Progression and projected to spur a 6 – 9 month drop.
Two phases later is ~January 2026 and closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak.
That is also the next phase of the over-arching ~4-Year low (Jan ’14) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; January 2026) Cycle Progression…
It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time… but there are multiple factors to monitor – in the coming weeks & months – before that would become the projected outcome for Dec ‘25/Jan ’26…
The NQ-100 rallied into mid-month, attacking & holding monthly resistance (23,996 – 24,118/NQU) – fulfilling its intra-month uptrends while simultaneously fulfilling its weekly LHR indicator. That was the ideal scenario for a top in mid-August – arriving within 2 weeks of the weekly LHR(s) test.
It then fulfilled analysis for a quick sharp drop into August 20/21st – when a multi-week low was projected… The NQ-100 dropped into Aug 21st – closing below its flattening daily 21 Low MAC while turning its direction down (a pair of negative 21 MAC signals and part of an overall sequence).
Similar to the month of August, when stocks also sold off sharply on the first trading day of the month, it would take a daily close below the early-Sept lows – in all the indexes – to signal that a 1 – 2 month peak is taking hold. Until then, the trends remain up.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes remain in overall uptrends, though in the midst of some congestion. They fulfilled late-July/early-August ’25 (intermediate) cycle highs and are now turning focus to Dec ‘25/Jan ‘26 – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression.
Monthly trend indicators are being reinforced by intra-year trends turning up in multiple indexes… providing another bullish factor into late-2025.
Will August Cycle Lows Spur New Multi-Month Rallies in Stocks?
What Did Early-’25 Plunge ‘4-Shadow’ for 2026?
How Does That Tie Into Multi-Month Stock Cycle Highs in late-‘25?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.