Stocks Reinforce Future ‘Danger Period’ After Mid-Sept ’23; S+P 500 Leads Trend Reversals.
08/30/23 – “For the majority of 2023, at least 3 – 4 markets (Gold, Silver, XAU & HUI) – and often many more (DJIA, DJTA, Russell 2000, Dollar Index, Euro, Bitcoin, Ether, etc.) – have been focused on the period of August 18 – 25, ’23 as the most likely time for the culmination of multi-week or multi-month moves and pivotal reversals that would initiate new, contrasting moves.
Coinciding with that, geopolitical cycles honed their focus to Russia/Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, and Aug 22 – 24, ’23 as the most likely time for ‘Putin to make a statement’ and reinforce this time for a significant shift… in and out of the markets.
(Those geopolitical cycles, as detailed in the Aug ’23 INSIIDE Track, were linked to Russian-related revolts, coups, attacks, and the resulting reactions… and were perfectly fulfilled when the leaders & hierarchy of the Wagner Group – who had staged a short-lived revolt/ coup/attack two months earlier – ‘mysteriously’ dropped out of the sky on Aug 23, 2023. That led multiple news outlets to conclude – in their precise words – that ‘Putin had made a statement’.)…
Most of these markets did exactly that, powerfully validating expectations for the culmination of recent trends and the onset of new ones…
Stock Indices are slowly validating the outlook for a multi-week low during the period of Aug 18 – 25, ideally on Aug 18 – 22, ’23. The S+P 500 & 400, NQ-100 & DJTA set their intraday lows on Aug 18 and have rallied. The DJIA & Russell 2000 retested and barely spiked below their Aug 18 lows, on Aug 25, but immediately reversed higher, reinforcing their validity.
The NQ-100 neutralized its weekly uptrend for the second time while dropping right to its rising weekly 21 High MAC and closing the week above that ascending support. The S+P 500, in line with its weekly trend, is beginning the expected multi-week rebound.
The DJIA did exactly what was described – spiking down to ~34,200 but not giving a weekly close below 34,342/DJIA – the level of the Jan ’23 high (the high of the 2023 opening range that dictates the parameters for the intra-year trend). On Aug 25, after spiking lower, it closed at 34,346/DJIA… holding above that key level.
At the same time, the Russell 2000 twice neutralized its weekly uptrend – but did not turn it down – while repeatedly testing & holding 1 – 2 month support at ~1840/QRU. It did that while fulfilling a ~22-week low-low cycle that has governed its action for ~2.5 years…
Daily closes above 35,025/DJIA, 1913/QRU, 15,962/DJTA & 2655/IDX are needed to turn the remaining daily trends up and confirm multi-week lows. The S+P 500 & NQ-100 have already reversed their daily trends up.
The weekly trend structure, when combined with prevailing daily/weekly cycles, is still projecting a rebound into mid-Sept ’23, at which time the… S+P 500 sets a lower high.”
Geopolitical events are reinforcing the ‘danger period’ that was entered in late-July/early-Aug ’23… and which was/is a bearish omen for stocks on a multi-month basis. The S+P 500 recently turned its weekly trend down – a lagging & confirming indicator that is usually triggered near the bottom of an initial sell-off and portends a reactive 1 – 3 week bounce (leading into the next bearish period after Sept 15, ’23) followed by a more significant decline after that.
That is reinforced by the DJIA – also projecting a secondary high around Sept 15 (based on a recurring ~45-degree cycle)… followed by a new sell-off. The Russell 2000 has been leading this reversal after fulfilling multi-month upside targets AND cycles in late-July ’23 while maintaining its intra-year down/neutral trend status (along with the S+P Midcap 400) and corroborating the outlook for a new multi-month decline beginning in early-Aug ‘23.
It peaked right at is converging monthly 21 & 40 High MACs – the upper ranges for its 3 – 6 month and 6 – 12 month trading ranges – providing a myriad of ‘ideal’ criteria for a major ‘B’ wave rally to peak and a large scale ‘C’ wave to begin. It just reached 1 – 2 month support (~1825 – 1840/QRU) and should see a 1 – 3 week rebound into mid-Sept ’23 before a second, more significant ‘danger period’ begins on/after Sept 15, ‘23.
Is the Russell 2000 the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’… or an Outlier?
Does S+P 500 (Negative) Weekly Trend Reversal Confirm Peak?
Why is Another Sell-off Very Likely after Sept 15, ‘23??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.