Stocks Reinforce ‘Ideal Scenarios’; Late-July Russell 2000 Peak Near 2015.
07/15/23 – “Stock indexes rallied into mid-month with the S+P 500 and NQ-100 remaining strong while the DJIA is mired in a 7 – 8 month trading range and the Russell 2000 projects some additional upside into late-July…
Stock Indices remain positive with the DJIA fulfilling its ‘ideal’ scenario – spiking lower on July 10 and then entering a new rally into July 14. It retested its recent high, and the high set in late-Nov/early-Dec ’22, and is very likely to spike above that resistance before reversing lower…
The DJTA, which has often led reversals over the past ~25 years, is arguing for a more significant peak in July/Aug ’23… based on its monthly & weekly trend patterns (see July 13, ’23 INSIIDE Track Intra-month Update) and the fulfillment of a 20-month low (Mar ’20) – high (Nov ’21) – (high; July ’23) Cycle Progression.
Its July 12 spike high ushered in a 1 – 2 week period when a multi-month peak is more likely. Like the S+P 500, a high in the coming ~week would fulfill a ~24-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and complete subsequent rallies of equal duration (~4 months each).
Since its late-June pullback low, the Russell 2000 has also been arguing a new rally up to ~2,000+/RT where its declining monthly 21 High MAC intersects the Feb ’23 & Aug ’22 highs and recent weekly LHRs. The coming week’s HHR corroborates with resistance surrounding 2015.0/QRU.
It could stretch its rally into July 24 – 28 ’23, the fulfillment of a ~6-week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression, successive 18-week advances, and a 25-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
Stock Indices produced the anticipated rallies into July 14 and are likely to see a little follow-through buying into July 17/18 – the fulfillment of intra-month uptrends and the convergence of multiple daily (shorter-term) cycles in the DJIA. The Russell 2000 is still capable of stretching a final high into July 24 – 28 and could reinforce that with a brief spike low (on July 17) to begin the week.”
Stock indexes remain in bullish but divergent 3 – 6 month cycles & trends and recently signaled multi-week highs but have not elevated the magnitudes of those peaks. As it did in Nov ’21, the Russell 2000 is beginning to show signs of an impending multi-month peak but should rally back to ~2,015/RT and into late-July ’23 – where/when a decisive peak is most likely.
Is The Russell 2000 the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’… or Just an Outlier?
What is Significance of Monthly 21 & 40 High MACs?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.