Stocks Reinforce Potential for Higher Highs into Dec ‘25; Late-’25 Cycle Shift Likely.
09-11-25 – “Stock Indices remain positive but have fulfilled multi-month upside objectives in time & price. While that does not automatically signal a top, it does show that the overwhelming majority of upside potential – on a corresponding basis – is fulfilled.
In this case, that means 3 – 6 months’ worth of upside targets – stemming from the early-April ’25 lows & signals – have been met (and/or exceeded). That particular uptrend – since early-April – is now living on borrowed time.
While projected tops are a good place to lighten up on longs (and projected bottoms are a good place to cover some short positions), they are not a place to immediately initiate short positions. First, a top must be signaled – usually with the daily or intra-month trend turning down – and then subsequent phases of a reversal pattern should play out.
Stock indices fulfilled the first of two cycles (late-July/early-August) in the second half of 2025, by surging into that time frame and reaching new all-time highs in many indices (though not in as many stocks, proportionately speaking)…
There are several key factors, in the over-arching analysis & related Cycle Progressions – that are important to review in order to keep current moves in proper context…
First, there is the 17-Year Cycle that was projected to spur a 20 – 30% (possibly 35 – 50%) plunge in most stocks in 2025 and potentially 2026. That outlook was powerfully fulfilled when stocks plummeted into early-April ’25 – with many of them suffering 30 – 50% losses as they headed into those cycle lows.
As stated in early-2025, the one consolation with these dramatic stock plunges is that each recovery has occurred quicker than the preceding one (although a second bout of serious selling is possible in 2026). That led into the subsequent analysis for a new surge…
Second, there was/is the outlook for a subsequent rally – to new all-time highs in the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 – in line with monthly trends, monthly 21 MACs and over-arching monthly cycles in early-April ‘25. That has also been fulfilled… but does not signal a top (just an upside target being met).
Third, there is the pair of pivotal cycles in the second half of 2025 – both of which were/are likely to time the culmination of significant rallies and usher in critical tops.
The first of those was in late-July/early-August. The NQ-100 and related stocks are still battling that cycle.
The second (of two cycle peaks) arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression.
Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle.
The ~2-Year Cycle was examined frequently in late-2021/early-2022 – when a 6 – 12-month peak was forecast for Jan 2022. At the time, it was fulfilling a ~2-Year low (Jan/Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’20) – (high; Jan 2022) Cycle Progression and projected to spur a 6 – 9 month drop.
Two phases later is ~January 2026 and closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak.
That is also the next phase of the over-arching ~4-Year low (Jan ’14) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; January 2026) Cycle Progression.
Intervening price action will need to clarify if new highs are likely, leading into those cycles, or if the markets could see a broadening divergence with only a few key indexes – or maybe just a few key stocks – setting new highs while others set lower highs.
By themselves, those cycles do not distinguish that detail. They just provide the backdrop. Other indicators need to clarify and/or corroborate.
The ideal cycle scenario would be if new highs were seen at that time… but there are multiple factors to monitor – in the coming weeks & months – before that would become the projected outcome for Dec ‘25/Jan ’26.
The action between mid-Sept and early-Oct ’25 could be the most revealing period in the coming months… that could set the stage for a subsequent rally to new highs leading into late-2025/early-2026.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes remain in overall uptrends, though in the midst of some congestion. They fulfilled late-July/early-August ’25 (intermediate) cycle highs and are now turning focus to Dec ‘25/Jan ‘26 – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression.
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “…there is the pair of pivotal cycles in the second half of 2025 – both of which were/are likely to time the culmination of significant rallies and usher in critical tops. The first of those was in late-July/early-August…
The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression.
Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle.
The ~2-Year Cycle was examined frequently in late-2021/early-2022 – when a 6 – 12-month peak was forecast for Jan 2022. At the time, it was fulfilling a ~2-Year low (Jan/Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’20) – (high; Jan 2022) Cycle Progression and projected to spur a 6 – 9 month drop.
Two phases later is ~January 2026 and closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak.
That is also the next phase of the over-arching ~4-Year low (Jan ’14) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; January 2026) Cycle Progression…It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Will Stocks Ultimately Rally into Late-2025?
What Did Early-’25 Plunge ‘4-Shadow’ for 2026?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.