Stocks Setting Divergent Peaks; NQ-100 Weekly Trend Projects Retest of Recent Low!
12/15/22 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update – “Stock Indices have sold off into mid-month, in line with the weekly trend patterns and the intra-month (down) trend signals triggered in early-Dec. This came after the DJIA fulfilled ongoing projections (since late-Sept ’22) for an overall advance into late-Nov/early-Dec and to 34,200 – 34,600 – a 4th quarter gain of ~20% that fulfills the 12-Year & 24-Year Mid-Term Election Cycles. It peaked at 34,595/DJIA on Nov 30.
It also occurred after several indexes rallied back to, and remained just below, their mid-Aug ’22 peaks – the ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ upside targets for these rallies (that has been described since late-Sept ’22). Since then, stocks have whipped back and forth – also fulfilling expectations for increased volatility before, during, and after the Nov CPI report and Dec Fed meeting.
Some indexes spiked to new intraday highs (on the heels of the CPI Report) while others set lower highs, fulfilling the potential for divergent peaks before a new sell-off. Tomorrow’s action could be very influential in what to expect between now and year-end…
While some indexes (S+P 400 & 500, Russell 2000, DJTA) have turned their daily trends down, others (DJIA, NQ-100) have only neutralized their daily uptrends. Combined with the intra-month downtrends, this setup could create another short-term low on Dec xx followed by a quick rally. That could be corroborated by stock indexes testing and holding their monthly support levels (see above) – the downside price targets for those intra-month downtrends.
Not only would that fulfill these daily trend patterns and the downside target for the intra-month downtrends (in price AND time), it would also fulfill a 10 – 11 trading day high-high-high-high-(low; Dec 16) Cycle Progression in several of those indexes and a 10 – 11 week cycle in the DJTA. That could even project a rally to new highs in some indexes and lower highs in others… for the 2nd or 3rd time in the past ~month.
A low on Dec xx would also perpetuate a ~2-month/~60-degree low-high-low-low Cycle Sequence…
1 – 2 month INSIIDE Track Update traders could have held long positions in the DJIA (futures or related stocks) from Oct 20/21 at ~30,210 – 30,350/DJIA (YMZ) until Dec 5/6 when trailing stops signaled to exit w/avg. gains of about ~$17,000/contract.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock indexes fulfilled projections for the largest advances in 2022 – led by the Dow, which was forecast to reach 34,200 – 34,600/DJIA in late-Nov/early-Dec ’22, on the heels of its Oct 20/21 buy signal. (See Oct & Nov ’22 INSIIDE Tracks & Weekly Re-Lays for details.) They reached that objective, with most indexes retesting their mid-Aug ’22 highs, ushering in a 1 – 2 month topping phase. These 4Q ‘22 rallies have generated new 4-Shadow Signals that auger new rallies in 1Q ’23.
Most indexes fulfilled 9 – 12 month downside wave and price targets in Sept/Oct ‘22, projecting a subsequent higher-magnitude rally in 4Q ’22 – back to/toward their mid-Aug ’22 highs. That has reached fruition with initial long positions triggering an exit signal near the highs and ushering in the time for a 1 – 2 month consolidation period.
What Does 4Q ’22 4-Shadow Signal Portend for 1Q ‘23?
What Would Dec ’22 Sell-off Signify… and Set Up?
How Would That Reinforce March ’23 Cycles?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.