Stocks Setting Stage for August 20 – 22nd Low & New Rally; Gold is Similar.
08-12-25 – “Stock indexes have begun to diverge (again) after rallying into late-July and initially peaking in fulfillment of diverse Cycle Progressions & cycles and monthly trend & timing indicators – most notably in the DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400.
As discussed in the Weekly Re-Lay, equities are providing a bit of déjà vu when compared to 4Q ’24. At that time, they were forecast to undergo a strong rally from early-Oct into late-Nov ’24 – when the leading (weaker) indexes were projected to set major peaks (in late-Nov ’24) and enter their 17-Year Cycle declines of ‘at least 20 – 30%, lasting at least 3 – 6 months’.
That is exactly what took hold in the DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 – with each one setting multi-month peaks on Nov 25/28, ‘24.
The S+P 500 waited until Dec 6th to set a multi-week top while the NQ-100 stretched its peak into Dec 16th – exactly 3 weeks after the DJTA, S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 had peaked.
A similar pattern appears to be taking hold after several indexes failed to turn their daily trends down (while dropping into August 1st) and subsequently turned their intra-month trends up – portending rallies to monthly resistance levels and into mid-month.
The stronger S+P 500 & NQ-100 are on track to spike up to weekly & monthly resistance levels (6494 – 6521/ESU & 23,996 – 24,186/NQU) before an intermediate peak becomes more likely.
There is another (potential) similarity to 4Q ’24. Back then, the three weaker indexes experienced an initial sell-off into Dec 20, ’24 – a ~25-day decline… The majority of daily cycles surround August 20 – 22, ’25 – the most likely time for that initial bottom to occur…
If a multi-week low is set around August 20 – 22nd, it would reinforce future cycle lows in [reserved for subscribers]… The weekly trends and related indicators should mold expectations for that time frame.
The Weekly Re-Lay will address shorter-term signals leading into this pivotal mid-month period…
Gold & Silver initially sold off after rallying into July 21 – 25th cycle highs with Gold setting a secondary (‘B’ wave) high as Silver fulfilled ongoing analysis for a surge to 39.50 – 40.10/SIU (ideally 39.70 – 39.75+/SIU, where range targets converge). Both fulfilled ~5-week low-low-low-high-(high; July 21 – 25, ’25) Cycle Progressions with Silver also fulfilling its weekly LHR indicator…
Gold has remained in a weekly uptrend during its entire consolidation phase (since its late-April cycle peak) and just rallied back above its rising weekly 21 High MAC, so new highs cannot be discounted… That remains in the overall context of longer-term analysis for successive highs in late-April & then in late-Oct/early-Nov ’25.
A couple of multi-month Cycle Progressions are worth reiterating in Gold as it enters a pivotal time…
First, there is a geometric ~9-month high-high-high-low (Feb 12 – 16, ’24) – low (Nov 11 – 15, ’24) – (low; Aug 11 – 15, ’25) Cycle Progression that was forecast to provide ‘the ideal time for a pullback low IF another significant sell-off unfolds’. That remains the case and could time a low soon.
Then there is a geometric ~2-month/~60-degree cycle that has timed turning points in the week following mid-month – on the 16th – 24th of the month since late-2024… August 18 – 22nd is also the culmination of a ~7-week low-low-(low/high?) Cycle Progression… although that could just as easily time a low – depending on price action of the next 1 – 2 days. Again, price action is the key!” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are focused on August 20 – 22nd as the ideal time for the next intermediate low. That could trigger a new ~4-month advance (into late-2025/early-2026??) IF specific criteria are met in late-August & early-September. (Another 16 – 18-week rally – if it begins in late-August – would mature in late-2025 when more significant cycles peak.)
Monthly trend indicators are being reinforced by intra-year trends turning up in multiple indexes… providing another bullish factor into late-2025. The DJTA is showing greater (relative) weakness than any other index and could trade differently after the August 20 – 22nd cycle low.
Gold cycles bottom around the same time. Watch for 3Q/4Q ’25 rally into late-Oct/early-Nov ’25. Platinum & Palladium should also bottom in August ’25.
Why Should Stocks Bottom On/Around August 20 – 22nd?
Do August ‘25 Gold, Platinum & Palladium Cycle Lows Corroborate?
Are New Multi-Month Rallies Likely to Begin in Late-August?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.