Stocks Setting Stage for August 20 – 22nd Low; Providing Clues About Subsequent Rally.
08-09-25 – “Stock indexes have begun to diverge (again) after rallying into late-July and peaking in fulfillment of diverse Cycle Progressions & cycles and monthly trend & timing indicators… A new decline is expected to take hold in the coming week…
Stock Indices are providing a bit of déjà vu when compared to 4Q ’24. At that time, they were forecast to undergo a strong rally from early-Oct into late-Nov ’24 – when the leading (weaker) indexes were projected to set major peaks and enter their 17-Year Cycle declines of ‘at least 20 – 30%, lasting at least 3 – 6 months’.
The S+P 500 waited until Dec 6th to set a multi-week top while the NQ-100 stretched its peak into Dec 16th – exactly 3 weeks after the DJTA, S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 had peaked.
In the following months, those indexes moved progressively lower, as part of projected 20 – 30% declines, while the S+P 500 & NQ-100 diverged and spiked to new highs during the two ensuing cycle highs – near Jan 22/23 & Feb 19/20, ’25.
The focus of the current comparison is to those Nov/Dec ’24 highs. Just as in late-Nov ’24, the DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 had their greatest synergy of cycles – most notably a recurring ~8-month cycle – converging in late-July ’25 and portending a decisive top. And just as in 4Q ’24, those weaker/leading indexes soon confirmed multi-week tops while the stronger ones did not.
There is another (potential) similarity to 4Q ’24.
In the current setup, the S+P Midcap, Russell 2000 & DJTA fulfilled cycle highs surrounding July 25/28th – 8 months from the late-Nov ’24 highs (both occurring on the final Monday of the month). That turned focus to the week of Aug 18 – 22, ’25 as the expected time for an initial low…
The majority of daily cycles surround August 20 – 22, ’25 – the most likely time for that initial bottom to occur. In 4Q ’24, those indexes suffered initial declines into Dec 20, ’24. 8 months from the Dec 20th low is Aug 20, ’25. A similar 25-day decline (Nov 25 – Dec 20) would take the current decline into Aug 22, ’25 (in both cases, the third Friday of the ensuing month).
Will cycles provide that precise of a comparative fulfillment? Key indicators would need to concur.
Stock indices are exhibiting new divergence with the S+P 500 & NQ-100 turning their intra-month trends up and remaining positive as the DJIA, DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 trace out more bearish daily trend & daily 21 MAC patterns without turning their intra-month trends up. New declines could soon take hold…
Gold & Silver initially sold off after rallying into July 21 – 25th cycle highs with Gold setting a secondary (‘B’ wave) high as Silver fulfilled ongoing analysis for a surge to 39.50 – 40.10/SIU (ideally 39.70 – 39.75+/SIU, where range targets converge). Both fulfilled ~5-week low-low-low-high-(high; July 21 – 25, ’25) Cycle Progressions with Silver also fulfilling its weekly LHR indicator…
Gold has remained in a weekly uptrend during its entire consolidation phase (since its late-April cycle peak) and just rallied back above its rising weekly 21 High MAC, so new highs cannot be discounted… That remains in the overall context of longer-term analysis for successive highs in late-April & then in late-Oct/early-Nov ’25…
Platinum & Palladium have sold off after fulfilling projections for decisive peaks on July 18 – 25th, taking hold immediately after Platinum reached its primary (but minimum) 6 – 12 month upside price target at ~1500/PL.
A correction into (at least) August 4 – 8th was projected with Platinum expected to drop to ~1200/PLV while Palladium is likely to drop back to ~1100/PAU. Those price objectives have not yet been met, so more downside is still likely.
In addition, Platinum just traced out a negative daily 21 MAC sequence, bouncing to its now-declining daily 21 Low MAC after closing below that support and turning its direction down. That reinforces the likelihood for another wave down – likely to reach 1200/PLV and potentially spiking as low as 1130 – 1150/PLV.
Copper plummeted after fulfilling multiple upside targets & extreme targets while peaking in sync with weekly cycles in late-July ‘25 and completing a 3-year uptrend. On July 19, ’25, that was projected to usher in a peak, which arrived a few days later – in sync with Cycle Progressions topping on July 21 – 25.
That led to Copper’s sharpest sell-off in history, on the heels of massive tariffs, while ushering in a likely multi-month volatile period of congestion.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are in a corrective phase that should bottom in the second half of August ‘25. While the DJTA is showing greater (relative) weakness than any other index, all the indexes are focused on August 15 – 22nd, now honed to August 20 – 22nd, as the time when intermediate cycles could/should turn back up and spur a new rally.
That could trigger a new ~4-month advance (into late-2025/early-2026??) IF specific criteria are met in late-August & early-September. (Another 16 – 18-week rally – if it begins in late-August – would mature in late-2025 when more significant cycles peak.) Monthly trend indicators are being reinforced by intra-year trends turning up in multiple indexes… providing another bullish factor into late-2025.
Gold cycles bottom just before that – on August 11 – 15, 2025. Watch for 3Q/4Q ’25 rally into late-Oct/early-Nov ’25. Platinum & Palladium should bottom in August ’25.
Why Should Stocks Bottom On/Around August 20 – 22nd?
Are New Multi-Month Rallies Likely to Begin in Late-August?
Do August ‘25 Gold, Platinum & Palladium Cycle Lows Corroborate?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.