Stocks Signaling Intermediate Top. More Upside Likely in January ‘24.
12/26/23 – “Stock indexes have hesitated since rallying into ~mid-Dec ’23 and fulfilling the latest phase of their 4Q 2023 ‘roadmap’. That set the stage for a 1 – 2 week top, which could still extend into year-end.
Weekly LHRs, .618 rebounds and a 20 – 21-week high (Dec ’21) – low (May ’22) – low (Oct ’22) – low (Mar ’23) – high (July ’23) – (high; Dec 11 – 22, ’23) Cycle Progression in the S+P 500 argued for a weekly high on December 18 – 22. As long as last week’s closing levels remain intact (and stock indexes set lower weekly closes on Dec 29th), that would reinforce those factors.
Corroborating that, the NQ-100 is still attacking monthly resistance at 16,961 – 17,094/NQH – even though that indicator loses potency as month-end nears.
On a 2 – 3 month basis, equity markets have been forecast to rally from late-October ’23 into January ’24 – when a more significant top is still expected.
A high in January ’24 would fulfill their late-October buy signals, a myriad of daily & weekly cycles, and the latest phase of an uncanny ~24-Month/~2-Year Cycle.
In 2017/18, stocks rallied strongly from Oct ’17 into Jan ’18.
In 2019/20, stocks rallied strongly from Oct ’19 into Jan ’20.
In 2021/22, stocks rallied strongly from Oct ’21 into Jan ’22.
And in 2023/24, stocks began a strong rally in October ’23… and could advance into Jan ‘24.
If so, that would perpetuate a ~24-month low (Jan/ Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan/Feb ’20) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; January 2024) Cycle Progression…
On a larger-magnitude price basis, the DJIA remains on track to ultimately reach its multi-year LLH (39,107/ DJIA) – ideally in January ’24 – and fulfill a major upside objective created by its 2020 & 2022 lows.
On a 6 – 12 month basis, the DJIA’s rally – from its March ’23 low – has just matched the magnitude of its preceding 4Q 2022 advance.”
Stock Indexes remain positive since generating multi-week buy signals after fulfilling downside price & timing objectives on Oct 27/30, 2023. That ushered in the projected 4Q 2023 advance, expected to last into January 2024 and fulfill the latest phase of the uncanny 2-Year Cycle. Another pullback is likely and would reinforce expectations for some volatile consolidation.
How High Could Projected Surge into January ‘24 Reach?
Why Would That Set the Stage for 1Q/2Q 2024?
What is in Store for 2024/2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.