Stocks on Track for Rally into Dec. 3; Upside Targets in Focus.
Stocks on Track for Rally into Dec. 3; Upside Targets in Focus.
11/28/18 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Daily & Weekly Trend Patterns: There are many timing-related indicators in addition to cycles. These other indicators provide a variety of timing applications – some identifying key periods in the future (similar to how cycles do) while others can only identify timing ‘in the moment’.
One example of the former is often discussed with regard to daily & weekly 21 MARC movement. That indicator (Moving Average Replacement Calculator) is inversely correlated to the daily & weekly 21 MAC (Moving Average Channel), so it can predict in advance when a sharp move – in both the 21 MAC and also in then-current price action – is most likely.
From Nov. 20 until Nov. 28, the daily 21 MARCs in Stock Indexes were going to drop sharply (the Oct. 29 low is 21 trading days before today and is the culmination of that sharp drop). As a result, the inversely correlated daily 21 MAC was poised to flatten and turn up during that period – if price fulfilled cycle analysis for a low on Nov. 20 or 21 and a sharp bounce into Nov. 30 or Dec. 3.
An example of the latter (form of timing indicator) is the trend indicator – daily, weekly, monthly, etc. There are multiple ways in which this indicator also provides a level of timing – in the moment. First, there is the timing of the culmination of a move – when a daily uptrend has turned neutral twice but failed to turn down.
That pattern occurred in the DJTA – and some related indexes – on Nov. 20, projecting a pullback low and a subsequent rally to new rebound highs. That has been discussed the past two weeks. The Transports turned back up on Nov. 21 and have just attained new rebound highs today.
Then, there is the opposite of that – when a market is nearing the end of a larger-magnitude trend but needs one more spike high or low to complete. It goes through a similar sequence – turning the daily trend neutral but not reversing it – and then returns to the recent extreme for a final test. That is what was described in multiple tech stocks that needed to retest their lows last week…
Among them, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL & GOOGL were unable to turn their daily trends up during their rebounds into Nov. 8. They then projected drops back to their late-Oct. lows to fulfill that pattern.
They all fulfilled that on Nov. 20, with all but AAPL spiking below their late-Oct. lows but closing well above that support – helping to identify a (double) bottom. At the same time, the Nasdaq 100 was fulfilling its weekly trend pattern – projecting a drop to new lows – and fulfilling daily cycle lows (Nov. 20/21).
Another timing indicator that is more ‘in the moment’ is the daily (and weekly) LHR/HLS. That, too, was discussed as equities were setting the stage for a Nov. 20 – 23 bottom (Nov. 20 in NQ; Nov. 20 – 23 in DJIA & S+P 500).
After a 3-day reactive bounce from their daily trend signals (on Nov. 14), the indexes turned back down on Nov. 19 and plunged to their respective daily HLS levels (daily extreme downside targets) on Nov. 19. That projected another 1 – 2 week low to take hold in the ensuing 1 – 3 days (Nov. 20 – 23).
At the same time, the potential for a Nov. 20 NQ-100 low was discussed, since it would also create a daily low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. A related high-high-(high) Cycle Progression (22 calendar days/16 trading days) projected the ensuing peak for Nov. 30/Dec. 3.
It was the synergy of all these timing indicators that lent greater credence to the potential for another low on or around Nov. 20 and an ensuing rebound. And that is when price action and price indicators took on a greater role. As for the coming days…
Stock Indices have confirmed the potential for a Nov. 20 low and are on track for a rally into Nov. 30/Dec. 3.
And as that is unfolding, the daily trend patterns are again poised to provide corroborating timing signals. Their current structure points to the same two days – Nov. 30 or Dec. 3 – as the most likely for a rebound peak.
Now corroborating that, the DJIA, ESZ & NQZ just surged to their daily LHR levels (extreme upside targets) with the ESZ & NQZ closing precisely at those levels. That portends a 1 – 2 week high in the ensuing 1 – 3 trading days (Nov. 29 – Dec. 3).
So, multiple ‘in the moment’ timing indicators are again reinforcing what daily cycles had already identified – the likelihood for the next 1 – 2 week high to take hold on Nov. 30/Dec.3.
On a slightly larger basis, the DJTA is projecting a peak on Nov. 30 – Dec. 7, the latest phase of an 11 – 12 week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
All the while, it would be at least one index fulfilling the potential for a rebound into late-Nov./early-Dec. from its late-Oct. low. And, as already noted, it is fulfilling projections for a rally to new rebound highs – the ‘c’ leg of an upward ‘a-b-c’ corrective rally.
It could spike as high as 10,925 – 10,987/DJTA – where pivotal weekly & monthly resistance (some are support turned into resistance) levels converge.
As for the other indexes, the ideal upside targets for this week are at 25,934 – 25,997/DJIA, 2818 – 2825/ESZ & 7103 – 7156/NQZ – the weekly LHR levels combined with other short-term targets and resistance levels.
It is even possible the indexes could spike above these levels but the Nov. 30 (weekly) close would be the most telling factor for the 1 – 2 week outlook.”
Stocks are fulfilling the likelihood for a rally into Dec. 3 after validating expectations for an important low on Nov. 20/21. Oct./Nov. ’18 stock market action honing outlook for coming months. Dec 3 ushers in next pivotal phase.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.