Stocks Triggering Negative Signals; NQ-100 Weekly Trend Projects Retest of Recent Low!
12/14/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Over the past 25+ years, the Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track have most frequently discussed three very closely related multi-year cycles:
— ~11.2-Year Sunspot/Solar Cycle
— ~17-Year Geo-Solar Cycle (related to ‘to and away’ magnetivity between Earth and the Sun and repeatedly linked to global conflict and stock market crashes)
— ~40-Year Cycle (‘Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun’ as well as myriad other cycles and events)
One unique aspect is when there is synergy. The correlation between 3 of the ~11.2-Year Cycles and 2 of the ~17-Year Cycles (converging & creating a 34-Year Cycle) has often been discussed as well. A perfect example was all the analysis published in 2007 that projected a multi-year, 35 – 50% crash in stocks – linked to 1973/74, 1939-’42, 1906/07 & 1872…
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/ uploads/2018/07/17-year-cycle-iii.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/ uploads/2018/07/17-year-cycle-v.pdf
https://40yearcycle.com/uncategorized/stock-market-crash-cycles-in-2007-2008/
2007/08 perfectly fulfilled that analysis with stock indexes declining from 2007 into 2009 and losing ~50% of their value (some more). That 17-Year Cycle returns in 2024/2025 – the same time that a related 17/34-Year Cycle of Middle East Conflicts & Restructuring returns (linked to Iraq/Kuwait/Persian Gulf War of 1990, Suez War of 1956, Palestine Mandate, etc of 1922/23, etc.).
All of those topics are for separate discussions. The reason for revisiting this topic now is the recent validation the scientific community has given to this ongoing INSIIDE Track analysis that the 17-Year Cycle IS a powerful Solar/Geo cycle that powerfully impacts our world and should not be under-estimated.
To begin the week, there was a revealing article at spaceweather.com – titled ‘The Extended Solar Cycle’. It powerfully corroborates the last ~25 years of related IT analysis and conjecture. Here is a small excerpt:
“…there is more to solar activity than the well-known 11-year sunspot cycle. Data from Stanford University’s Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) reveal two solar cycles happening at the same time, and neither is 11 years long.
“…there is more to solar activity than the well-known 11-year sunspot cycle. Data from Stanford University’s Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) reveal two solar cycles happening at the same time, and neither is 11 years long.
“We call it ‘the Extended Solar Cycle,'” says lead author Scott McIntosh of NCAR. “There are two overlapping patterns of activity on the sun, each lasting about 17 years.”
Solar physicists have long suspected this might be true…11 years vs. 17 years. 1 cycle vs. 2 cycles. What difference does it make?
“The Extended Solar Cycle may be telling us something crucial about what’s happening deep inside the sun where sunspot magnetic fields are generated,” says McIntosh. “It poses significant challenges to prevalent dynamo theories of the solar cycle.” spaceweather.com
Well… what a shocker! The 17-Year Cycle is a valid cycle that is closely related to the ~11-Year Sunspot Cycle!! Who would have guessed?!?!?
Stock Indices remain in 1 – 2 month uptrends with the DJIA fulfilling ongoing projections for an overall advance to (at least) 34,200 – 34,600 – a 4th quarter gain of ~20% that fulfills the 12-Year & 24-Year Mid-Term Election Cycles. They fulfilled analysis for new surges into early-Dec and then pulled back in line with the weekly trend patterns and the intra-month (down) trend signals triggered last week.
That came shortly after the DJIA fulfilled ongoing projections (since late-Sept ’22) for an overall advance into late-Nov/early-Dec and to 34,200 – 34,600 – a 4th quarter gain of ~20% that fulfills the 12-Year & 24-Year Mid-Term Election Cycles.
It also occurred as several indexes rallied back to, and remained just below, their mid-Aug ’22 peaks – the ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ upside targets for these rallies. A few of these indexes also rallied right to their declining weekly 21 High MACs and held.
Daily & weekly cycles would still allow for a subsequent peak in Dec ’22 – with the potential for divergent highs (higher highs in some stocks/indexes and lower highs in others). That could arrive in the coming days (if it didn’t yesterday)… The Russell 2K and S+P Midcap 400 have a shorter-term, 10 – 11 trading day cycle that peaks on Dec 15/16.
Those two indexes are generating negative daily 21 MAC signals, so the intraday peaks could be in place… That is corroborated by the weekly trend pattern in the Nasdaq-100, which remains negative. The NQ-100 needs a weekly close above 12,236/NQH to turn its weekly trend up and to elevate this rebound to the next higher magnitude. If that fails to occur on Dec 16, the NQ-100 could see a drop to new lows into January ’23…
Another key is the S+P 500 and its related range-trading support – the highs of late-Oct/early-Nov near 3950/ESH. That is also where it found support in early-Sept ’22 and then resistance on Sept 19 – 21, after closing below that level. In late-Oct/early-Nov ’22, 3950/ ESH also pinpointed a 50% rebound of the Aug – Oct ’22 decline. As a result, it remains pivotal.
That was proven on Nov 17, after the S+P had finally closed above 3950/ESH. It fell right back to that level and then subsequently rallied to new highs. It again retraced to that level last week and again rallied to new highs (though it was not able to close above previous highs… showing some waning strength). It would take daily & weekly closes below 3950/ESH to signal a top.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock indexes fulfilled projections for the largest advances in 2022 – led by the Dow, which was forecast to reach 34,200 – 34,600/DJIA in late-Nov/early-Dec ’22, on the heels of its Oct 20/21 buy signal. (See Oct & Nov ’22 INSIIDE Tracks & Weekly Re-Lays for details.) They reached that objective, ushering in a topping phase that could hold for 2 – 3 months. These rallies have generated new 4-Shadow Signals that auger new rallies in 1Q ’23.
Most indexes fulfilled 9 – 12 month downside wave and price targets in Sept/Oct ‘22, projecting a subsequent higher-magnitude rally in 4Q ’22 – back to/toward their mid-Aug ’22 highs. That has reached fruition with initial long positions triggering an exit signal near the highs and ushering in the time for a 1 – 2 month consolidation period.
What Does 4Q ’22 4-Shadow Signal Portend for 1Q ‘23?
What Would Dec ’22 Sell-off Signify… and Set Up?
How Would That Reinforce March ’23 Cycles?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.