What’s Next for Stock Indexes, the 2-Year Cycle and the Overall Outlook for 4Q 2018?
What’s Next for Stock Indexes, the 2-Year Cycle and the Overall Outlook for 4Q 2018?
Wk Resistance: 2800.0 – 2806.0/ESZ 25,817 – 25,998/DJIA 7210.0 – 7261.0/NQZ
11/06/18 – INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update: Stock Indices have rallied since bottoming on Oct. 26/29 while fulfilling daily cycles and reaching weekly extreme downside targets. All the indexes were expected to then see an initial rally into Nov. 2 – 9…
The DJIA & ESZ have turned their daily trends up, confirming that this rebound is at least one degree/magnitude higher than the mid-Oct. bounce. That is also in sync with the weekly trend pattern that projected a 1 – 3 week reactive bounce from the Oct. 29 low… That would be in line with a few key cycles that are most salient in the DJIA…
The DJIA has closely followed a ~7-week cycle all year. It’s initial drop lasted just over 7 weeks. It then created a 14-week low (Mar. 23) – low (June 25 – 29) – high (Oct. 1 – 5) Cycle Progression – leading into the decisive peak.
That second 14-week (low-high) move broke down into a 7-week low (June 25 – 29) – low (Aug. 13 – 17) – high (Oct. 1 – 5) Cycle Progression. If that follows a normal sequence and produces an ensuing high 7 weeks later (low-high-high Cycle Progression), the DJIA would set its next high on Nov. 19 – 23 – during the early part of the late-Nov./early-Dec. time frame that has been in focus all year.
In between, the DJIA has daily cycles showing that a short-term low could be seen on Nov. 9 or 12. So, a brief pullback could be seen – perhaps a quick reaction once the results of the midterms are distilled and digested.
Ultimately, the key for the 1 – 3 month and 3 – 6 month outlooks will be the weekly trends. The weekly trends turned down on Oct. 26 and would [reserved for subscribers]”
Equities have surged after confirming a late-Oct. ’18 cycle low in fulfillment of a projected 2-Year Cycle plunge (10 – 15%) in October 2018. The price action of Oct. 26 & 29 projected an initial surge into Nov. 5 – 9 with the potential for that rally to extend into Nov. 19 – 23. In between, another quick sell-off is becoming very likely for Nov. 8 – 12. Regardless of what the coming weeks produce, the real intriguing part is what could unfold in late-2018/early-2019.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.