Stock Market Top? Russell 2000 Signals Multi-Month Peak; DJIA Targets Aug 1/2!
07/29/23 – “Stock Indices remain positive, having rallied into intermediate cycle highs in late-July after initially peaking in mid-June ’23 and then consolidating for 4 – 5 weeks… without generating any multi-month sell signals. That corroborated May ‘23 monthly trend reversals in indexes like the NQ-100… timing an initial peak but portending a future rally after a reactive pullback.
This has also allowed the Russell 2000 to attack its 3 – 4 month upside targets (stemming from its March ’23 low) at 2000 – 2015/QRU. As described over the past month, the Russell had been targeting a new rally into July 24 – 28, ’23 – the fulfillment of a ~6-week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression, successive 18-week advances, and a 25-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
The Russell 2000 attacked its monthly LHR in June ’23, reinforcing the likelihood for a subsequent peak in July or Aug ’23. If that high is set now (in July ’23), it would fulfill a 20-month low-high-(high; July ’23) Cycle Progression in the Russell, DJTA, S+P Midcap 400, and many, many stocks.
In the DJIA, [it’s] entire advance from mid-March (and the ~3-month decline that led into mid-March) has been divided into ~3-month/~90-degree & ~1.5-month/ ~45-degree movements in time. It set successive highs at ~1.5-month intervals (mid-Sept, early-Nov & mid-Dec ’22, with a subsequent high in early-Feb ’23) and then declined for ~1.5 months (mid-Mar).
From there, the DJIA rallied for ~1.5 months (May 1) and then again peaked ~1.5 months later (June 15/16). Another peak on Aug 1/2 would fulfill a ~1.5-month low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a series of ~3-month (90-degree) moves from successive highs on Nov 1/2, Feb 1 & May 1, ’23.”
Stock indexes remain in bullish but divergent 3 – 6 month cycles & trends and on track for multi-month peaks in the second half of July ‘23. As it did in Nov ’21, the Russell 2000 is increasing signs of an impending multi-month peak but is still expected to extend its rally into late-July ’23 – when a decisive peak is most likely.
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Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.