Stocks Reinforce Aug ‘23 ‘Danger Period’! Mid-Sept ’23 Ushers in New Danger Period.

08/12/23 – “Stock indexes reversed lower in early-Aug ‘23, validating weekly cycles and turning daily & intra-month trends down in the process.  That validated the potential to enter a negative period in late-July/early-Aug ’23 – and a vulnerable period that extends into late-Aug ’23

Stock Indices are slowly selling off after peaking and reversing lower in late-July/early-August ‘23, turning daily & intra-month trends down as a significant ‘danger period’ began.  A vulnerable period extends into late-Aug ’23.

The DJIA spiked higher on Aug 1/2 – fulfilling a ~1.5-month low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a series of ~3-month (90-degree) moves from successive highs on Nov 1/2, Feb 1 & May 1, ’23. (A future high would be expected in mid-Sept ’23.)

Coinciding with that peak, the Russell 2000 reached its 3 – 4 month upside targets (stemming from its March ’23 low) at 2000 – 2015/QRU.  Along with other corroborating indicators, that is where the rising monthly 40 High MAC and declining monthly 21 High MAC converged (see Aug ’23 INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and illustrations).

This came after it rallied into late-July ’23 – the convergence and/or fulfillment of multiple timing indicators and cycles.  It also initially fulfilled the monthly LHR indicator.  Since then, the Russell 2000 has neutralized its weekly uptrend AND its intra-year uptrend – both signs that confirm a multi-week top.  This initial decline could drop back to ~1840/QRU – where 1 – 2 month support exists.

For the past ~2.5 years, the Russell 2000 has set a multi-week, often multi-month, low every 21 – 22 weeks.  That has occurred six straight times and could recur if the it sells off and sets a low between mid-Aug and early-Sept.  That would also fulfill an ~11-month high-low-(low) Cycle Progression.  The ideal time (greatest synergy) for that low would be on Aug 18 – 28, ’23… Stock Indices experienced some additional selling with the potential for downside follow-through over the next 1 – 2 weeks.”


Stock indexes are fulfilling ongoing analysis for multi-month peaks to take hold in late-July/early-Aug ’23 and enter a vulnerable ‘danger period’ that could/should spur sharp sell-offs once trigger points are activated.  As it did in Nov ’21, the Russell 2000 could be leading this transition as it fulfilled multi-month upside targets in late-July ’23 while maintaining its intra-year down/neutral trend status – setting the stage for a new multi-month decline.

It also peaked right at is converging monthly 21 & 40 High MACs – the upper ranges for its 3 – 6 month and 6 – 12 month trading ranges… providing many of the ‘ideal’ criteria for a major ‘B’ wave rally to peak and a large scale ‘C’ wave to begin.  An initial decline should take it down to ~1840/QRU into the second half of Aug ’23. A subsequent bounce into mid-Sept ’23 would then usher in a second, more significant ‘danger period’ in equities.

 

Is the Russell 2000 the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’… or an Outlier?

What is the significance of Monthly 21 & 40 High MACs being tested and holding?

Is this a ‘Major ‘B’ Wave Peak’ in at least one key index??

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.