Stock Market Impending Peak; Synergy of Indicators Portends Mid-Sept ’23 Top.
09/06/23 – “The first 3 – 4 trading days of each month are often the most revealing. That is why the first 3 trading days are viewed as the ‘opening range’ and the parameters for the intra-month trend.
In order to trigger a new intra-month trend (up or down) a market needs to close beyond that 3-day trading range – on any subsequent day – to trigger a related signal (daily close above 3-day trading range = intra-month uptrend; daily close below 3-day trading range = intra-month downtrend).
That is also why those initial days are often prone to false moves – when a market drops sharply for 2 – 3 days but then reverses and heads higher the rest of the month (or vice-versa). That is described in the Tech Tip on Intra-Period Reversals, an excerpt of which is reprinted on page 2.
In the case of Stock Indexes, Bonds & Notes, Currencies, Metals, Nat Gas, etc., they cannot turn their new intra-month trends down until Sept 7, at the very earliest. In order to do that, they would need to give a daily close below the lowest point of the Sept 1 – 6 trading range. The inverse is the case for the Dollar Index, Grains, Crude, etc.
That is why markets often trigger ‘Delayed Intra-Month X-X Reversals’ (see page 2). One of the tell-tale signs this is developing is if/when those markets drop to their monthly support (or rally to monthly resistance) in those first ~3 trading days… and reverse higher without ever triggering an intra-month downtrend signal.
Stock Indices are one example of an initial decline, having sold off for the first three trading days of the new month. However, they would need to give daily closes below 34,291/DJIA, 4495/ESZ & 15,506/NQZ to trigger new intra-month downtrends and negate the outlook for another rally into mid-Sept ’23. That is also what it would take to turn the daily trend down in the S+P 500.
As long as that does NOT occur, they remain on track for another brief advance.
The weekly trend structure, when combined with prevailing daily/weekly cycles, is still projecting a rally into mid-Sept ’23, at which time another multi-week (possibly multi-month) high is likely. This could be the first of 2 or 3 successive highs – in Sept, Nov ’23 & Jan ’24 – that set up a more significant peak in line with the 2-Year & 17-Year Cycle.
The DJIA attacked its weekly LHR last week, increasing the potential for a 1 – 2 month high to take hold in the first half of Sept ‘23.”
The Russell 2000 is again leading a multi-month reversal lower, peaking right at is converging monthly 21 & 40 High MACs – the upper ranges for its 3 – 6 month and 6 – 12 month trading ranges – providing a myriad of ‘ideal’ criteria for a major ‘B’ wave rally to peak and a large scale ‘C’ wave to begin. It also attacked and held CRITICAL intra-year trend resistance (as did the S+P Midcap 400) and reversed lower. A second, more significant ‘danger period’ begins on/after Sept 15, ‘23.
The S+P 500 confirmed a multi-month peak was set in late-July/early-Aug ’23 – the precise time stocks had been projected to enter a precarious ‘danger period’. It turned its weekly trend down during the initial drop into late-Aug ‘23 – a lagging & confirming indicator that is usually triggered near the bottom of an initial sell-off and portends a reactive 1 – 3 week bounce… into the next bearish period after Sept 15, ’23, when a more significant decline has been forecast.
The DJIA concurs with its weekly LHR also portending a multi-week (or longer) peak around mid-Sept ’23.
Why Does DJIA Project Significant Peak in mid-Sept ‘23?
How Does S+P 500 (Negative) Weekly Trend Reversal Confirm Multi-month Top?
Why is Another Sell-off Very Likely after Sept 15, ‘23??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.