Stocks Project Bounce into Mid-Sept ‘23 Before 2nd (More Significant?) Sell-off.
08/26/23 – “Stock indexes have sold off into daily, weekly & geopolitical cycles (greatest synergy on Aug 22 – 24, ’23) when a low had been anticipated. That was the same time the Aug ’23 INSIIDE Track concluded would be ‘a prime time for Mr. Putin to make a statement’ with his actions. A myriad of news services concluded he did that on Aug 23…
Stock Indices are slowly validating the outlook for a multi-week decline into – and a multi-week low during – the period of Aug 18 – 25, ideally on Aug 18 – 22, ’23. The S+P 500 & 400, NQ-100 & DJTA set their intraday lows on Aug 18 and consolidated since. The DJIA & Russell 2000 retested and barely spiked below their Aug 18 lows, on Aug 25, but immediately rallied.
The NQ-100 neutralized its weekly uptrend for the second time while dropping right to its rising weekly 21 High MAC and closing the week above that ascending support. The S+P 500, after turning its weekly trend down on Aug 18, is beginning the expected multi-week rebound…
At the same time, the Russell 2000 again neutralized its weekly uptrend – but did not turn it down – while repeatedly testing & holding 1 – 2 month support at ~1840/QRU. It did that while fulfilling a 21 – 22-week low-low cycle that has governed its action for ~2.5 years…
The weekly trend structure, when combined with prevailing daily/weekly cycles, is still projecting a rebound into mid-Sept ’23, at which time the DJIA & NQ-100 (and others) should [reserved for subscribers]…
Stock Indices fulfilled intermediate cycle lows and many of the downside objectives for a ‘normal’ decline but need daily closes above 34,800/DJIA, 4485/ESU & 15,420/NQU to signal that a higher-magnitude rally (that should ideally stretch into mid-Sept ’23) is underway.”
Geopolitical events are reinforcing the ‘danger period’ that was entered in late-July/early-Aug ’23… and which was/is a bearish omen for stocks on a multi-month basis. The S+P 500 recently turned its weekly trend down – a lagging & confirming indicator that is usually triggered near the bottom of an initial sell-off and portends a reactive 1 – 3 week bounce (leading into the next bearish period after Sept 15, ’23) followed by a more significant decline after that.
That is reinforced by the DJIA – also projecting a secondary high around Sept 15 (based on a recurring ~45-degree cycle)… followed by a new sell-off.
The Russell 2000 has been leading this reversal after fulfilling multi-month upside targets AND cycles in late-July ’23 while maintaining its intra-year down/neutral trend status (along with the S+P Midcap 400) and corroborating the outlook for a new multi-month decline beginning in early-Aug ‘23.
It peaked right at is converging monthly 21 & 40 High MACs – the upper ranges for its 3 – 6 month and 6 – 12 month trading ranges – providing a myriad of ‘ideal’ criteria for a major ‘B’ wave rally to peak and a large scale ‘C’ wave to begin. It just reached 1 – 2 month support (~1825 – 1840/QRU) and should see a 1 – 3 week rebound into mid-Sept ’23 before a second, more significant ‘danger period’ begins on/after Sept 15, ‘23.
Is the Russell 2000 the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’… or an Outlier?
What is the significance of Monthly 21 & 40 High MACs being tested and holding?
Why is Another Sell-off Very Likely after Sept 15, ‘23??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.