S+P 500 Reinforces Roadmap: Bounce into Mid-Sept ‘23 Should Trigger 2nd Sell-off.
08/23/23 – “Stock Indices sold off to initial downside targets last week, ushering in a decisive time when a multi-week low has been projected. Intermediate cycles, weekly trend patterns and wave structure reinforce that conclusion and argued for (at least) a 1 – 2 week low – ideally on Aug 18 – 22, ’23.
The DJIA (and many other indexes) dropped right to its rising weekly 21 High MAC and closed the week above that ascending support on Aug 18, signaling that a low could have taken place. If the DJIA is merely completing a multi-week correction – as remains the primary expectation – it completed a textbook pullback…
As previously discussed, it also dropped right to its Jan ’23 high – the opening range that dictates the parameters for the intra-year trend – and closed the week above that trend support. In doing so, it neutralized its weekly uptrend for the second time. That also identified Aug 18 – 25 as the most likely time for a 1 – 2 month low. Other indexes & indicators concur…
The Russell 2000 twice neutralized its weekly uptrend while dropping precisely to 1 – 2 month support at ~1840/QRU. (It would not turn the weekly trend down until a weekly close below 1837/QRU.)
It did that while fulfilling a 21 – 22-week low-low cycle that has governed its action for ~2.5 years…
At the same time, the DJTA dropped right to its weekly HLS (extreme weekly downside target) on Aug 18, while attacking its monthly 21 High MAC, monthly support (projected low) & 2nd Close Support and a downside wave target where the latest decline equaled the magnitude of the previous (April ’23) decline. It was the ideal setup for (at least) a multi-week bottom.
It did that while fulfilling a ~47-week/~11-month high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression, reinforcing the potential for at least a multi-week low on Aug 18/21…
The S+P 500 turned its weekly trend down, another signal that often ushers in an initial multi-week low and subsequent reactive bounce. The big difference is that this index would be expected to rebound to a lower high… That could be showing (if no additional downside is seen in August) that a Sept ’23 peak will be in close proximity to the July/Aug peaks… a ~double top.
Looking out over the next ~month, the DJIA still has an intermediate cycle arguing for a multi-week peak in mid-Sept ’23.”
The S+P 500 has confirmed the multi-month peaks projected to take hold in late-July/early-Aug ’23 and usher in a 3Q ’23 ‘danger period’ that could/should spur multiple sell-offs. It turned its weekly trend down – a lagging & confirming indicator that is usually triggered near the bottom of an initial sell-off and portends a reactive 1 – 3 week bounce (into the next cycle high on Sept 11 – 15, ’23??) followed by a more significant decline after that. That is reinforced by the DJIA – also projecting a secondary high around Sept 15… followed by a new sell-off.
The Russell 2000 has been leading this reversal after fulfilling multi-month upside targets AND cycles in late-July ’23 while maintaining its intra-year down/neutral trend status (along with the S+P Midcap 400) – setting the stage for a new multi-month decline beginning in early-Aug ‘23.
It peaked right at is converging monthly 21 & 40 High MACs – the upper ranges for its 3 – 6 month and 6 – 12 month trading ranges – providing a myriad of ‘ideal’ criteria for a major ‘B’ wave rally to peak and a large scale ‘C’ wave to begin. It has reached 1 – 2 month support (~1825 – 1840/QRU) and should see a 1 – 3 week rebound into mid-Sept ’23 before a second, more significant ‘danger period’ begins.
Is the Russell 2000 the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’?
What is the significance of Monthly 21 & 40 High MACs being tested and holding?
Does S+P 500 (Negative) Weekly Trend Reversal Confirm Peak??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.