Stocks Validating Mid-September Cycle Peaks; New Sell-off Unfolding!

09/23/23 – “Stock indexes extended their declines with several more indexes turning their weekly trends down (a lagging/confirming indicator that often reverses near the culmination of multi-week or multi-month declines).  This reinforced the late-July ’23 cycle highs and validated mid-Sept ’23 cycle highs and reinforced future cycles…

Stock Indices added more levels of confirmation to ongoing analysis for:

  • Multi-month top in late-July/early-Aug ‘23
  • ‘Danger Period’ to begin in early-Aug ‘23
  • Initial Decline into Aug 18 – 25, ‘23
  • Subsequent bounce that would lead to ‘a more significant peak’ and downturn after Sept 15, ‘23

One of the key factors that reinforced the recent bounce was the S+P 500 turning its weekly trend down in late-Aug ’23 – at the culmination of that initial sell-off.  As stated on Aug 19, ’23:

8-19-23 – “The S+P 500 turned its weekly trend down, another signal that often ushers in an initial multi-week low and subsequent reactive bounce.  The big difference is that this index would be expected to rebound to a lower high…”


That coincided with ongoing projections the DJIA would set multi-week highs on Aug 1/2 & Sept 14/15 with an intervening low on Aug 18 – 25, ’23:

8-23-23 – Stock Indices sold off to initial downside targets last week, ushering in a decisive time when a multi-week low has been projected.  Intermediate cycles, weekly trend patterns and wave structure reinforce that conclusion and argued for (at least) a 1 – 2 week low… the DJIA still has an intermediate cycle arguing for a multi-week peak in mid-Sept ’23.”


The DJIA peaked on Aug 1, bottomed on Aug 24/25, and then rebounded and fulfilled the ~45-day high-high cycle by setting its highest daily close (since Aug 15) on Sept 14, ’23 as many proxy stocks were also setting secondary or primary peaks.  That occurred right after the S+P 500 fulfilled its outlook for a ‘reactive 1 – 3 week bounce (followed by a drop to new lows)’.

Many remaining indexes reversed their weekly trends down on Sept 22 – providing a similar lagging indicator as the S+P 500 did on Aug 18 (& the DJTA soon after).  That could/should lead to another multi-week low – ideally in the coming week – and reactive subsequent bounce.  The DJIA & S+P 500 closed below their weekly HLS levels…”


Multiple indexes are confirming that a multi-month peak was set in late-July/early-Aug ’23 – precisely when cycles and a host of indicators had been projecting it to take hold and usher in a precarious ‘danger period’.  A more significant ‘danger period’ was forecast to begin on/after Sept 15, ‘23.

The ~45-day cycle in the DJIA could stretch this overall decline into late-October ’23 before a multi-month bottom is set.  That should be followed by rallies into more significant cycle highs in January ‘24… and set the stage for some surprising events expected in 2024.

 

Why Does DJIA Project Second Multi-Week Decline After mid-Sept ‘23?

How Does S+P 500 (Negative) Weekly Trend Reversal Confirm Multi-month Top?

Is Another October – January Advance Likely to Follow?

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.