Stocks Reinforce Late-July Peaks; Project New Sell-off!

09/20/23 – Stock Indices remain mixed with weaker indexes breaking below their Aug ’23 lows and ushering in the potential to turn their weekly trends down (a lagging indicator that often reverses while an initial low is being set).  They are showing additional signs of exhaustion on a multi-month basis.

In contrast, the DJIA, S+P 500 and NQ-100 – for the moment – remain above their Aug ’23 lows.  

As a result, the Russell 2000 has now retraced more than 50% (in time) of its May – Aug ’23 rally while setting the lowest daily close since June 1, ’23.  On a price basis, it has retraced more than .618 of its March/May – Aug ’23 rally – showing additional weakness while further validating its late-July/early-Aug ’23 cycle peak.

The S+P Midcap 400 is similar but has only slightly spiked below its Aug ’23 low, still retracing about 50% of its price rally while exceeding the duration of its previous (mid-April – late-May ’23) decline…

The DJTA reached the time where it had retraced 50% (in time) of its late-Apr – late-July ’23 rally (on a weekly basis, that is Sept 12 – 22, ’23) and just tested the exact level (15,058/DJTA, 9/19 low was 15,052) where it has retraced 50% of its late-Apr – late-July ’23 price advance… ushering in a pivotal time

In the case of the S+P 500, a drop below 4412/ESZ would also fulfill its weekly trend pattern, which turned down in mid-Aug ’23.  At the time, that projected an initial low and reactive 1 – 3 week bounce followed by a drop to new lows.  It bounced for ~2 weeks and is now on track to retest its Aug ’23 low.

The weekly trends, in all these indexes, will go a long way in clarifying how long the late-July/early-Aug ’23 cycle highs should hold.

As is often the case near significant turning points, only some remaining bullish stocks were able to rally to new (or secondary) highs into mid-Sept ’23 – as the weaker stocks & indexes were steadily declining – before this week’s selling.

Stocks like GOOGL, AMZN, INTC & ORCL set new highs for 2023 – on Sept 11 – 18 – as stocks like AMZN, TSLA, META, MSFT & MU rallied to secondary highs on Sept 14/15.

On a 1 – 3 month basis, it reinforces the significance of the late-July/early-Aug ’23 cycle high.

On a 3 – 6 month basis, the action of the past ~6 weeks has corroborated the outlook for two key peaks – one in late-July/early-Aug ’23 and the ensuing one in Jan ’24.  In between, continued volatility is likely.”


Multiple indexes are confirming that a multi-month peak was set in late-July/early-Aug ’23 – precisely when cycles and a host of indicators had been projecting it to take hold and usher in a precarious ‘danger period’.  A more significant ‘danger period’ was forecast to begin on/after Sept 15, ‘23.

That should trigger a new multi-week decline, ultimately lasting into future cycle lows in October ‘23 (see latest publications for all specifics), followed by rallies into more significant cycle highs in January ‘24.  That should set the stage for some surprising events expected in 2024.

 

Why Does DJIA Project Significant Peak in mid-Sept ‘23?

How Does S+P 500 (Negative) Weekly Trend Reversal Confirm Multi-month Top?

Why was/is Another Sell-off Very Likely after Sept 15, ‘23??

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.