Stocks Increase Likelihood for Drop into Mid-December; Dec. 12 – 18 = Key.
Stocks Increase Likelihood for Drop into Mid-December; Dec. 12 – 18 = Key.
11/24/18 Weekly Re-Lay: Stock Indices remain in 1 – 2 month (as well as 2 – 4 week and 1 – 2 week) downtrends, after spiking higher to begin the past week and then quickly reversing lower. That reinforces the NQ-100 cyclic outlook, which was forecast to peak on Nov. 5 – 9 – in line with 5-week & 10-week high-high Cycle Progressions – and which could extend this decline (on balance) into Dec. 10 – 14…
Stock Indices remain weak with the Nasdaq 100 still leading the way. It peaked along with weekly Cycle Progressions on Nov. 5 – 9 and just fulfilled its daily & weekly trend patterns by spiking to new correction lows.
As long as the Nov. 8 high holds in the Nasdaq 100, the next intermediate low could be seen on Dec. 10 – 14 (the next phase of that 5-week high-high-high-high-(low) Cycle Progression). That would also complete a 50% retracement in time for the NQ-100 – 30 weeks up and 15 weeks down…
The expected Dec. 10 – 14 low could be [reserved for subscribers]…
There is another important technical that needs to be kept in context – the wave structure (which is filtered by daily & weekly trends).
As stated last week, the DJIA had greatly reduced the potential to retest or exceed its Nov. 8 high – when it turned its daily trend back down – but the DJ Transports and even the Russell 2000 maintained the potential to rally above their Nov. 8 highs (before they drop below their Oct. 26/29 lows).
That wave structure is not linked to cycles or timing indicators, so it provides another diverse piece of the puzzle. However, other indicators do help filter it. The DJTA has reinforced that potential – to exceed its Nov. 8 peak in the near future – while the Russell 2000 is sitting on the fence.
Then there are short-term price indicators like the daily trend pattern and the daily LHR/HLS. When the indexes turned their daily trends back down on Nov. 14, they projected a 1 – 3 day (trading days) reactive bounce. They rebounded (50%) into the third day (Nov. 19), without even neutralizing their daily downtrends, and quickly turned lower.
[On a 1 – 2 week basis, several tech stocks (AMZN, MSFT, AAPL & GOOGL) were unable to turn the daily trends up during their rebounds into Nov. 8. Since then, they had projected drops below their late-Oct. lows – in the near term – which was just fulfilled this past week.]
They plunged to daily HLS levels (daily extreme downside targets) – signaling that another minor low could take hold in the ensuing 1 – 3 days (Nov. 20 – 23). At the same time, key tech stocks fulfilled their daily trend patterns with their Nov. 20 lows.
The Nov. 20 low also created a corroborating low-low-(low) Cycle Progression (of 22 days) in NQZ, projecting the next low for ~Dec. 12.”
Stocks remain on track for an overall decline into mid-Dec. Downside targets are in focus and should be reached by then (watch Dec. 12 – 18) – potentially impacting all of 1Q 2019! Daily cycles in NQ-100 next align on Dec. 12 while DJIA & S+P 500 converge on Dec. 18. Price action should hone that analysis.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.