Tech Stocks Corroborating Cycle Highs; 2-Year Cycle Portends Dangerous 4Q ‘18.
Tech Stocks Corroborating Cycle Highs; 2-Year Cycle Portends Dangerous 4Q ‘18.
09/22/18 Weekly Re-Lay: Stock Indices remain mixed with the DJIA reaching new highs and finally fulfilling its weekly trend pattern. At the same time, the Nasdaq 100 has struggled to rally the past two weeks and is poised to enter a ‘c’ wave decline in the coming week(s). Leading stocks (some of which have supported this index all year) are showing similar signs of vulnerability – poised for a quick sell-off…
Stock Indices are mixed with the DJIA spiking to new highs and fulfilling its weekly trend pattern (as well as 6-week & 12-week Cycle Progressions) as the NQZ increases the likelihood for a ‘c’ wave decline in the coming week – at the same time its daily 21 MARC is surging (a negative influence).
That is corroborated by stocks like GOOGL, which has corrected for ~8 weeks since its July ’18 peak. It neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times as it repeatedly (for 3 weeks) closed below its weekly 21 High MACand the level of its late-Jan. peak.
This past week’s outside-week/2 Close Reversal lower amplifies this action but it would not turn its weekly trend down until a weekly close below 1163. And all of that is setting up as GOOGL enters the 13th week (90 degrees) from its late-June low and 26th week (180 degrees) from its late-March low.
A (sharp?) drop to new lows in the coming week (late-July – late-Sept.) would also match the duration of its previous late-Jan. – late-Mar. decline – a textbook example of wave equivalence.
On a daily basis, AAPL also ended the week with a sequence of negative signals that could spur a drop to and spike below 200. That mirrored GOOGL, which rebounded to its descending daily 21 Low MAC and immediately reversed lower. A close below 1159 should trigger a drop below 1110.
Perhaps the most precarious is NFLX, which rebounded long enough to twice neutralize its weekly downtrend while repeatedly riding its ascending weekly 21 High MAC (but not closing above that channel). After failing to turn its weekly trend up the past three weeks, NFLX now enters a 7-week period when its inversely-correlated weekly 21 MAC will surge. That could apply a new weight of negative pressure and spur a move toward 4thwave support (and a ‘c’ = ‘a’ target) around 270.”
Stocks are confirming analysis for a topping process in 3Q 2018. The Indexes are completing initial multi-week sell-offs and could see larger corrections in line with an uncanny 2-Year Cycle – projecting a sharp (10 – 15%) sell-off in October. A subsequent rally would then set the stage for a more dramatic decline to follow, most acutely after a late-Nov./early-Dec. secondary peak.
The NQ-100 and key tech stocks are validating this with several bellwhether stocks confirming multi-month peaks and projecting multi-month declines. DJIA is poised to retest Jan. ’18 high but remains on track for late-year drop to 22,100/DJIA – its primary downside target for 2018. The NYSE remains weak and could see sharpest drop in 4Q 2018.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.