Stocks Projecting Final Spike Highs in Key Indexes; Early-Nov – early-Dec Sell-off Likely.
10/29/21 INSIIDE Track – “Stock Indexes, on a 3 – 6 month basis, continue to trace out more of a sideways pattern since peaking during the latest phase of the ~16-Month Cycle in May/June ‘21. As stressed throughout this period, that does not include every stock or every index. Tops and bottoms rarely occur in tandem. Even the early-2020 peak stretched out over a 4 – 5 week period… before a 4 – 5 week plunge.
16 months before Jan/Feb. ‘20, in Sept/Oct. ‘18, equities did the same thing with some peaking in early-Sept, others in late-Sept, and the strongest ones in early-Oct. – before all of them entered a 2 – 3 month sell-off. And much of what is unfolding now, and whatever unfolds in the next 1 – 2 months, should have a strong bearing on what to expect in Sept/Oct. ‘22 – the next phase of that 16-Month Cycle.
In the interim, focus has also been on the midpoint of that 16-Month Cycle – coming into play in Jan/Feb ’22 and expected to time a multi-month peak. As corroboration to that, an intervening multi-week peak was forecast for early-Sept ‘21 – 4 months from the early-May ‘21 peaks in indexes like the DJTA.
A multi-week peak in early-Sept ‘21 would increase the likelihood for a multi-month peak in Jan/Feb ‘22 that would increase the likelihood for a subsequent peak in Sept/Oct ‘22 – the next phase of the 16-Month Cycle. A 3 – 6 month peak in May/June ‘21 was expected to do the same thing.
Most of the indexes fulfilled the May/June ‘21 cycle peak, triggering 15 – 30% corrections in a diverse array of sectors and stocks. Those stocks and indexes – with the DJTA in the lead – were projected to initially bottom during the week of July 19 – 23, with July 19 forecast to create a blow-off low in a majority of stocks.
That was followed by a similar spike low on Aug 19 and a related spike low – projected for the DJTA and weaker indexes – on Sept 20.
The Russell 2000 peaked in March ‘21 and has been in a sideways correction since then – remaining within a relatively narrow trading range between ~2360 at the high and ~2100 at the low. During each sell-off, the Russell 2K has been unable to turn its weekly trend down – indicating that new highs (above the Mar ’21 peak) are likely to be seen before a more substantial sell-off becomes possible.
That (potential) new high would also be confirmation of a wave ‘5’ rally of which the overall 5-wave advance began in March ‘20…”
Stocks continue to trace out a lengthy topping process that began with weaker equities and indexes peaking in May/June ’21 – the time for (at least) a 3 – 6 month peak. Other (stronger) stocks and indexes – like the S+P 500 and Nasdaq 100 – were/are projected to set a sequence of intermediate highs in May/June, early-Sept and now early-Nov ’21. If fulfilled, that would project another sharp sell-off into early-Dec – when a multi-week low is most likely.
That would be even more likely if indexes like the DJTA and Russell 2000 – which are projecting new highs in the coming weeks (the 5th of 5th wave culmination; an overall wave structure stemming from the March ’20 lows) – are able to reach upside price targets and fulfill the criteria for wave ‘5’ peaks. Continued divergence is expected, so individual stocks and indexes need to be examined independently – both during the time for this next early-Nov – early-Dec correction AND for the subsequent time frame from early-Dec ’21 into 1Q ’22.
Where are the various indexes most likely to peak – in early-Nov and/or in 1Q ‘22?
Those specifics are already taking shape with some uncanny indicators poised to come back into play. Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.