Stocks Reinforcing ~8-Month & ~4-Month Cycle; Early-Jan. ’22 Peak Remains Focus.
09/30/21 INSIIDE Track – “Stock indexes (except for S+P 500 & NQ-100, being supported by a few key stocks) have been in a corrective period since May/June ‘21 – the latest phase of an uncanny ~16-month cycle that has governed the majority of equities for several years. That cycle previously helped pinpoint the Sept/Oct ‘18 and Jan/Feb ‘20 highs as well as the sharp declines that followed each.
Most of the indexes fulfilled that cycle peak – topping in May/June ‘21 and triggering 15 – 30% corrections in a diverse array of sectors and stocks. Those stocks and indexes – with the DJTA in the lead – were projected to initially bottom during the week of July 19 – 23, with July 19 forecast to create a blow-off low in a majority of stocks.
That was followed by a similar spike low on Aug 19 and a related spike low – projected for the DJTA and weaker indexes – on Sept 20.
The S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 waited until Sept. ’21 – 4 months from the May ’21 cycle high and 4 months before a related cycle high in Jan ’22 – to set a higher peak while most stocks and indexes set lower peaks. In doing so, they fulfilled their weekly LHR indicators that portended peaks in the first half of Sept. (see Sept ’21 INSIIDE Track for details)…
Looking out beyond Sept. ‘21, another multi-month high is still expected in Jan./Feb. ‘22 – 8 months from the May/June ‘21 cycle high in most stocks – reinforcing the overall 16-Month Cycle as well as the uncanny 2-Year Cycle.
The 3.25-Year Cycle
Another corroborating cycle is a 3.25-Year Cycle was powerfully validated with the Dec. ’18 low in stocks and projected an overall advance into 1Q ’22 – when the next phase should invert and time a 1 – 2 year (or longer) peak. That would fulfill a 3.25-year low (1Q ‘09) – low (2Q ‘12) – low (3Q ‘15) – low (4Q ‘18) – high (1Q 2022) Cycle Progression. So, there is quite a bit of synergy coming into play in 2022; particularly in 1Q ’22…”
Stocks continue to trace out a lengthy topping process that began with weaker equities and indexes peaking in May/June ’21 – the time for (at least) a 3 – 6 month peak. Other (stronger) stocks and indexes – like the S+P 500 and Nasdaq 100 – were/are projected to set a sequence of intermediate highs in May/June, early-Sept and then early-Jan ’22. If fulfilled, that would project a larger, more inclusive sell-off in early-2022.
What indexes could still see higher highs in early-Jan ’22… before a broader sell-off?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.