Stock Market Sell-off Phase III; New Sell-off Unfolding; Nearing Late-Feb Bottom.
02/19/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices have sold off after rebounding into early-Feb – when daily cycles and daily/weekly trend indicators projected a secondary high and reversal lower. The NQ-100, as well as several corresponding ‘proxy’ stocks remain on track for drops to new lows (below the Jan 24 lows) before a second multi-week low becomes more likely. The Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 are showing that (divergent) low could occur on Feb 22…
Stock Indices remain in congestion after fulfilling the primary expectation linked to the 2-Year Cycle (and corroborating 16-Month, 8-Month, 4-Month & 2-Month cycles – all that projected a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 and sharp sell-off to follow) – dropping into Jan 24 – 28.
That quickly led to the projected bounce into Feb 2/3, when a secondary high and reversal lower was forecast. It arrived precisely on schedule with some indexes (NQ-100) and key ‘proxy’ stocks (FB, INTC, NFLX, TSLA, etc.) portending a subsequent drop to new lows, based on the fact their daily trends could not turn up. That is still the case and is consistent with range targets in the Nasdaq…
The NQ-100 has formed a new set of range-trading parameters – peaking near 16,600/NQH in Nov. & Dec. ’21 and dropping to ~15,200/NQH before rebounding 50%. It then declined again, breaking below 15,200 and plunging right to ~13,800/NQH – an equal-distant range of ~1,400/NQH points – before bottoming.
That spurred a second 50% rebound, right back to 15,200/NQH (support turned into resistance) – where it topped on Feb 2 in sync with daily cycles. It has sold off since then, steadily declining back toward range-trading support near 13,800/NQH. That makes the coming week a critical one, when a retest of/spike below 13,800/NQH is likely.
There is a pivotal change that took place on the Feb 18 close – the DJIA turned its weekly trend down, joining the majority of other indexes that had turned their weekly trends down in late-Jan ’22 (reinforcing the likelihood for an initial low and brief bounce into early-Feb before another decline)…
On a near-term basis, the structure of the daily 21 MARCs was poised to keep downward pressure into mid-Feb and then have the potential to become a supporting factor shortly after. That remains the case but it has not yet become a positive influence.
In order to turn the daily 21 High MACs up, the indexes would need to [reserved for subscribers]…
Stocks remain below their early-Feb highs and have entered the time when key indicators (daily 21 MAC/MARC, trend & cycles) have set the stage for a low. A low on Feb 22 would fulfill a 24-day high-low-low Cycle Progression in the Russell 2000 and S+P Midcap 400, even as their daily trends, 21 MACs and 21 MARCs are set for a secondary low.”
Stocks are fulfilling the outlook for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a 2 – 3 month plunge into Feb/Mar ’22 before a multi-month low becomes more likely.
That is unfolding at the same time Gold had been forecast to see an accelerated advance into late-Feb/early-March – portending intensifying trouble during the month of Feb ‘22. Geopolitical tensions are validating what has been projected since Oct/Nov ’21.
The NQ-100, Russell 2000 & DJTA reached multi-month upside targets in Nov ’21 and signaled a wave ‘5’ peak on various levels – signaling that those highs could hold for many months (or longer) and trigger the largest declines since March ‘20. That warned of trouble at the same time metals were projecting strong 3 – 6 month surges after bottoming in late-Sept ’21. These markets are now nearing the time for the culmination (often in accelerated fashion) of these 4Q ‘21/1Q ’22 trends.
How Does This Impact 10, 20 & 40-Year Stock Cycles Colliding in 2022?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.