Stock Market Bottom: July 14 Ushers in Bullish Period for Stocks! Buy Signal Forming.
07/09/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock Indices are slowly confirming signs of a bottom in mid-June (June 13 – 21 was ideal cyclic time for a low – 2/3 of way between ~8-month cycle peak in early-Jan ’22 and next phase of ~8-month cycle) after several indexes spiked to 6 – 12 month downside targets. This could be the start of a multi-month rally into monthly cycle highs in Sept/Oct ’22 – when the next decisive peak is forecast.
Several ‘proxy stocks’ (MSFT, NFLX, AMZN, GOOGL, SBUX), are leading the way – bottoming in May and setting divergent higher lows in June – preparing for stronger rallies in July. Those stocks peaked in Nov ’21 – while fulfilling major upside price & wave targets and – and led the way lower.
So, it is not surprising they are bottoming a little earlier than others and could lead the way higher.
The Nasdaq-100 concurred, fulfilling a 14 – 15 week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a related 28 – 29-week low-low-high-(low) Cycle Sequence with the mid-June low. It also completed successive 11-week declines at the time. Soon after, three key indexes turned their monthly trends down (a lagging indicator that often turns at the culmination of an initial ~6-month decline).
As explained in the July ’22 INSIIDE Track, the last time most stock indexes turned their monthly trend down was in early-2008. The last time they were in monthly downtrends was in April 2009. So, that could have far-reaching implications… most likely after a 2 – 3 month reactive rally ensues.
Stock Indexes are about to enter a potentially bullish 1 – 2 week period when the inversely-correlated daily 21 MARCs will plunge over the course of the next 6 – 7 trading days. While that could apply some negative pressure in the coming (1 – 3) days, it is likely to become a bullish factor before the end of the week…
On a short-term basis, a pair of daily Cycle Progressions could produce an intervening (higher) low on July 13/14 and then spur a larger advance in the second half of July. The ideal scenario would have stocks rally on Monday (at least part of the day but potentially turning their daily and/or intra-month trends up) and then pull back into mid-week before entering a larger-magnitude rally (July 14/15 – late-July) just as the daily 21 MACs are turning up.”
Stock indexes are validating the potential for a mid-June (multi-month) bottom and the onset of a multi-week/multi-month advance. They reached 6 – 12 month downside targets in June – fulfilling the overwhelming majority of downside price potential for the first 9 months of 2022. Focus is steadily shifting to Sept ’22 and what could be the most decisive time of this year.
On a broader basis, stocks powerfully fulfilled projections for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge in the first half of 2022. That is the start of a massive shift projected for 2022 – ultimately leading to market jolts in late-2022 through late-2023. An overall 4 – 5 month decline was/is expected between that Jan ’22 cycle peak and the next (Sept/Oct ’22) cycle peak… ideally bottoming on June 13 – 21!
How Would a Mid-June Bottom Validate the ~8-Month Cycle?
Why is Sept ’22 Such a Key Period in the 2022/2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.