17-Year Cycle of US Recessions Recurs in 2025/2026.
03/28/24 – “The 17-Year Cycle times a multitude of natural, market, and geopolitical phenomenon on a consistently recurring basis. As time goes on, more evidence is emerging that this is a cycle at the core of the universe… or at least our little corner of the universe (Sun & Earth).
17-Year Cycle Concerns
The greatest impact of this cycle, as is the case with most cycles, is during its transition phase… from one phase to the next. Just as the 40-Year Cycle has 5 – 7 year periods before & after its shift – that usually time the ‘seismic shifts’ of that cycle, the 17-Year Cycle has critical 2 – 3 year periods leading into and beyond its shifts.
Another of those has to do with economic recessions (and depressions) in the US. As detailed on page 2, 2025 – 2026 is the latest phase of a 17-Year Cycle that has timed 13 (of a possible 14) recessions since the founding of this country. The odds appear to favor a 14th one occurring in the coming years. Other factors concur.
17-Year Cycle of US Recessions
2025/2026 – ?? Next Significant Recession in US??
2008/09 – Great Recession – Dec 2007 – June 2009
1991/92 – Post Persian Gulf War Recession (often credited/blamed for George H.W. Bush re-election defeat) – July 1990 – March 1991
1974/75 – 1973 – 1975 (stagflation) recession; oil crisis (4xs price increase), stocks drop 50%
1957/58 – Recession of 1958
1940/41 – No real recession; Instead, entry into WW II
1923/24 – 1923/24 recession (mild); followed depression of 1920/21
1906/07 – Panic (Crash) of 1907; severe monetary contraction… ultimately led to founding of Federal Reserve System
1889/90 – 1890/91 recession linked to Panic of 1890 in UK
1872/73 – Panic of 1873 began ‘long depression’; failure of largest US bank (Jay Cooke); Coinage Act of 1873 depressed silver; led to resumption of gold standard in 1879
1855/56 – Panic of 1857 (railroad bubble burst; recession often credited as main cause of Civil War)
1838/39 – 1836 – 1838 recession (bank failures, lack of confidence in paper currency) followed by one of longest/deepest depressions of 1800’s – beginning in 1839
1821/22 – Panic of 1819 led to depression into 1821; followed by recession of 1822-1823
1804/05 – Recession of 1802 – 1804 (followed by depression of 1807 – 1810)
1787/88 – 1785 – 1788 recession following Panic of 1785… led to demand for stronger federal gov’t.
Since the founding of the United States of America, the 17-Year Cycle has powerfully and precisely timed the ebb and flow of economic expansion and contraction… often tied to currency battles and struggles.
The only time this 17-Year Cycle did not time a notable recession was in 1941 – when the US was entering World War II. The other 13 times, it identified recessions and/or depressions, most recently in 2008 – 2009.
If this 17-Year Cycle remains accurate, another recession is likely in 2025 – 2026!”
Stock Indexes are poised for an initial decline from late-March ’24 – the start of a new Natural Year – into the Date of Aggression on April 19th… the culmination of a pivotal transition period. If this unfolds as expected, it would provide another key omen to future economic (and equity) challenges in late-2024 – late-2025.
The action leading into April 19th is expected to ‘cast shadows ahead’ – on both a 1 – 2 year basis AND a 1 – 2 month basis (to future time frame when the culmination of a second sell-off is projected). The 17-Year Cycles – of Middle East Wars, Real Estate & Interest Rate Extremes, Stock Market Declines, AND US Recessions – are in the midst of decisive transition points and portend a tenuous time over the next 1 – 2 years (and potentially beyond).
What Would Trigger a Stock Market Sell-off into ~April 19th?
How Does This Align with 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.