2020 – 2021 Gold Outlook III: US Dollar Poised to Powerfully Impact Precious Metals; Nov. ’19 Dollar Sell Signal Corroborates…
12/02/19 INSIIDE Track: “The Dollar Index remains below its late-Sept./early-Oct. cycle peak and is signaling the onset of a ‘C’ wave decline. It reversed its weekly trend down and projected a subsequent, multi-week reactive bounce. That bounce just peaked in lockstep with multiple indicators.
The Dollar Index reversed lower in perfect sync with its weekly trend pattern. While rebounding, it neutralized its weekly downtrend multiple times but would not turn that up until a weekly close above 98.30/DXZ. (The same was true with the daily trend, needing a daily close above 98.30/DXZ.)
The Dollar was unable to close above 98.30/DXZ – on a daily or weekly basis this past week – reaffirming that it was completing corrective bounces prior to a new multi- week decline. That dovetails with the rally of the inversely-correlated 21 MARC. Overall, that weekly 21 MARC will rally for 12 of the next 14 weeks.
The initial 4 – 5 weeks, from mid-Nov. until late-Dec., are the most noteworthy and dovetail with a myriad of cycles converging in late-Dec…. and most likely to time the low of a substantial sell-off. The first couple weeks were poised to exert a positive influence but then steadily turn to neutral and then negative as the Dollar nears mid-Dec.
The cash Dollar Index provided precise fulfillment, rallying up to its weekly 21 High MAC (MAC = 98.55, DXY high = 98.54) and reversing lower. Ideally, it will now sell off and give a weekly close below the weekly 21 Low MAC as that channel is turning down – and drop into late-Dec.
The Dollar Index has a ~2-year high (June ‘10) – high (July ‘12) – low (May ‘14) – low (May ‘16) – low (Feb. ‘18) Cycle Progression that comes into play in 4Q ‘19/1Q ‘20 – when another (ascending) low is expected. (This cycle has remained close to 24 months, so Jan./Feb. 2020 is the ideal time for a subsequent low.)
That has some corroboration from a larger variation of that cycle – an approximate 6-year cycle that has created a fairly precise ~6-Year high (Jan. ’02 high monthly close) – low (Mar. ’08 low monthly close) – low (April ’14 low monthly close) – low Cycle Progression targeting 1Q/2Q 2020.” See Dec. 2019 INSIIDE Track for additional analysis pertaining to gold & silver.
2020/2021 is the culmination of momentous cycles that have been discussed for two decades – most notably focused on the likely collision of a new Currency War and another military war (both culminating in 2021). Gold & Silver are forecast to see some strong advances… BUT ONLY at specific times and after specific price action. In between, sharp sell-offs are very likely due to seismic shifts unfolding for precious metals – and the continued competition from fiat currency like the US Dollar.
With the advent of cryptocurrency and other alternatives to traditional ‘money’ – both paper and metals – some future events are likely to take investors by surprise in the coming years.
How Will US Dollar Impact Gold’s Currency Role in 2020/2021?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.