Bitcoin Blow-off Top (~48,000/BT)? Time to Lighten Longs??
01/11/24 – “The Battle Rages On! The Dollar remains under pressure and Gold has been consolidating, leaving room for Bitcoin to shoot up to its 3 – 6 month extreme target near 48,000/BT.
As detailed since early-December:
— 12-06-23 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Bitcoin has nearly reached its multi-month upside target – at ~45,000/BT (see Oct., Nov. & Dec. ’23 INSIIDE Tracks) – and could spike up to 47 – 48,000/BTC before a peak is seen.” —
On January 8th, Bitcoin spiked up to ~48,000/BT – fulfilling this extreme upside objective – and set its highest daily close at 47,985/BTH (47,108/BTC). That fulfilled multi-month buy signals from mid-Sept ’23 & mid-October ’23 while reaching extreme upside targets for this phase of the crypto rally… the ideal setup for liquidating some longs.
Now that it has reached that precipice, it is probably time for [reserved for subscribers]… There are two other factors that support the potential for an intermediate top in Bitcoin this week…
BTE, STR
The recent rise in Bitcoin has been closely linked to expectations for SEC approval of Bitcoin ETFs.
Much of this surge has been speculators ‘buying the rumor’ or ‘buying the expectation’. This expectation has been met with the launch of several Bitcoin ETFs, which begs the question: ‘Who is left to buy?”
In many cases, this is the time when savvy investors take some profits by liquidating some of their holdings since the frothy upside move has likely been overdone… at least when placed in the perspective of current valuation.
In that case, it is when they ‘sell the fact’ or ‘sell the realization’ (of that expectation… bte, str).
5 of III
The other factor involves price action and wave structure. The chart on this page was originally published in June 2023 – explaining how Bitcoin had retraced to multi-month support and was preparing for an accelerated advance – the third (III) wave of an overall bull market that began with the late-2022 low in Bitcoin (and June 2022 low in Ether).
Wave I lasted 18 – 20 weeks and stretched from November ‘22 into April ‘23 (the same duration as the ~20-week rally from June into November 2021).
The ensuing ‘flat’ ‘a-b-c’ correction lasted ~20 weeks from April ‘23 into late-August/early-Sept 2023 when multiple buy signals were generated.
The subsequent advance has now lasted 18 – 20 weeks (when timed from lowest weekly close and/or intra-week low spike) and has now traced out 5 waves within that overall wave III advance.
From a price and timing perspective, that also identifies the current time and price as the ideal level for an intermediate peak and the onset of a multi-week correction.
Based on monthly cycles, this could spur a multi-week pullback [reserved for subscribers]…
That is all part of the larger cycles, including the 4-Year Cycle that helped pinpoint the November ‘21 peak and which next comes into play in late-2025. Related charts and diagrams follow.”
Bitcoin & Ether have fulfilled analysis for major advances from their Nov ’22 lows (projected multi-year lows) into late-2023/early-2024. Bitcoin’s September buy signals projected an overall surge, capable of spiking as high as ~48,000/BT before a multi-month peak would become most likely. That has been reached as multiple upside objectives have also been attained.
This sets the stage for a sharp correction in Bitcoin, capable of reaching ???? (see latest publications for specific targets and details).
Did Dollar Set Decisive Low in Late-December ‘23?
Are Bitcoin & Ether Poised for Sharp Sell-off?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.