Bitcoin & Ether Initially Fulfill Upside Targets; Dollar Projects Final Sell-off.
12/09/23 – “The Dollar Index has rebounded after reaching multi-week downside targets & support (~102.40/ DXZ), setting a multi-week low. That also fulfilled a 26 – 29-day high-high-high-(low; Nov 27 – 30) Cycle Progression and ushered in a new rally. The new daily & intra-month trends quickly validated that, reversing up and projecting a rally into mid-month.
It tested & held its weekly LHR (103.82/DXH), a sign of an imminent high. That could be followed by a sell-off into the next phase of that ~4-week cycle in late-Dec ’23… a type of Intra-month Inverted V. That is also when a ~24-week low-low-low-(low; Dec 26 – 29, ’23) Cycle Progression would mature.
That could also be a decisive time with regard to the Dollar’s monthly 21 MAC. If it closes below that average on Dec 29th (102.40/DXH), it would be the first time to do that since July/Aug ’21. December ’23 begins a sharp surge in the monthly 21 MARC, which is inversely correlated to the monthly 21 MAC. As a result, that 21 MAC will have a much easier time turning down in the coming months.
The Euro turned its daily & intra-month trends down as it dropped to its weekly 21 Low MAC while retracing 50% of its October/November rally. If it fails to close below 1.0800/ECH, the Euro should see a new rally into late-Dec ‘23.
The Yen rallied from decisive support (.6610 – .6654/JYZ) and fulfilled projections for a surge to ~.7130/JYH in the near term. That fulfills a critical element of what is needed to confirm a major, multi-month bottom. Consolidation is now likely…
Bitcoin has reached its multi-month upside target – at ~45,000/BT (see Oct., Nov. & Dec. ’23 INSIIDE Tracks) – and could spike up to 47 – 48,000/BTC while Ether is attacking related targets 2,350 – 2,450/ETH…
The Dollar Index rebounded after reaching 102.40/DX and fulfilling a 26 – 29-day low-low-low-high-high-high Cycle Progression. It tested its weekly LHR and declining daily 21 High MAC, which could spur a new reversal down.
The Euro retraced to intermediate support and should see a new rally if it does not close below 1.0800/ECH. The Yen fulfilled projections for a quick, sharp rally to ~7130/JYH and could see a few days of volatile congestion below its recent high.
Gold & Silver sold off sharply after precisely fulfilling upside projections, spiking to new highs on Dec 4th – with Gold perfectly fulfilling its upside wave target at 2152/GCG (intraday high was 2152.6/GCG) – and setting what would likely be multi-week highs. Gold also attacked and held its Intra-month PLLR (2149/GCG), reinforcing the likelihood for a peak near/at 2152/GCG.
In doing so, Gold spiked to a new all-time high – a likely time for some profit-taking (selling) to be triggered. By extending that rally into Dec 4, ‘23, Gold fulfilled a ~31-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression from its 2022 low & completed equal-duration rallies from the early-Oct ’23 cycle low.
It also fulfilled analysis for the latest 1 – 2 week peak to take hold around Dec 4, ’23, in sync with normal intra-month action and various cycles as well as a ~30-day related cycle that has created 1 – 2 week (or longer) peaks – within 3 – 4 trading days of the start of each month – in 6 of the past 9 months.
This spike high also fit perfectly with Silver’s weekly & monthly LHR indicators after Silver fulfilled November expectations for a rally to ~25.70/SIH by/on Nov 30, ’23 – strengthening the case for a culminating spike high in early-Dec ’23.
The surge into that peak – another prime example of the 90/10 Rule of Cycles in Gold & Silver – accelerated in the weeks surrounding Nov 20 – 24, ’23 – the ideal time for the weekly 21 MACs to turn up (due partially to the declining 21 MARCs). Both turned their weekly 21 MACs up on Nov 20 – 24th, fulfilling that pattern and reinforcing the outlook for a surge into Dec 4, 2023.
During the ensuing sell-off, Gold dropped right to its weekly HLS and held… also testing and holding above its rising weekly 21 High MAC. In the inverse to what the Nov 27 – Dec 1 signaled (a final spike high), this recent action portends a spike low and multi-week bottom in the coming week(s)…
Gold & Silver fulfilled the ideal intra-month scenario for a multi-week peak as Gold was peaking right at its 2152/GCG upside target. That spurred some profit-taking and a sharp pullback with Gold testing & holding its weekly HLS (extreme downside target for this past week) at 2014/GCG.
Based on multiple indicators, Gold could see a new 3 – 5 day rally take hold early in the coming week.
Silver could see the same but is in a weaker technical structure right now.
The XAU & HUI are fulfilling projections for a 4Q ‘23 rally to 130 – 133/XAU & 251 – 254/HUI. Monthly resistance levels corroborate those objectives. In the interim, both indexes turned their weekly trends up and then entered a normal reactive sell-off…
They both pulled back to previous highs (resistance turned into support and range-trading support) while testing their rising daily 21 High MACs and flattening weekly 21 High MACs (and now rising weekly 40 Low MACs).
It would take daily closes above 120.50/XAU & 236.0/HUI to signal the onset of new rallies.
Platinum & Palladium are rebounding with Platinum poised to spur a quick surge to 1060/PLJ or higher as it emerges from a ~5-month bottoming process and prepares for a new advance into May/June 2024. Palladium dropped to new lows, delaying any intermediate rally.
Platinum is setting the stage for a more sustained – and potentially accelerated advance – as it trades in the middle of its flattening weekly 21 MAC. Its inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC will begin a 5-week decline (in the coming week), increasing the odds the 21 MAC will turn positive.
Platinum twice neutralized its daily uptrend, while pulling back to its flattening daily 21 Low MAC. As long as it does not give a daily close below 898.0/PLJ, Platinum would remain positive and on track for an imminent new surge.
1 – 4 week & 1 – 3 month traders can enter long positions in April ’24 Platinum futures at current levels and average into these down to 897.0/PLJ. Place initial sell stops at [reserved for subscribers; TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]”
Bitcoin & Ether are fulfilling projections for their Nov ’22 lows to evolve into multi-year lows that would spur large advances into late-2023/early-2024. Bitcoin’s September buy signals projected a 1 – 2 month surge to ~35,000 (already fulfilled) and a larger 3 – 6 month advance to ~45,000+/BT (initially fulfilled now). Ether has also initially fulfilled projections for a 3 – 6 month advance to 2,350 – 2,450/ETH.
Since July, cryptos have been expected to work higher into (at least) December ’23 and potentially into 1Q 2024 as the Dollar declines. That could culminate in late-December when Dollar cycles bottom. Gold analysis corroborates with Gold just surging to its multi-month upside target (~2152/GCG) while the Dollar is projecting a final drop into year-end, before a more significant bottom is forecast to take hold.
Platinum is now the latest market to prepare for a substantial surge, triggering a pair of buy signals on December 7th/8th.
Has Dollar Completed its Multi-Year (~14-year) Uptrend?
Are Anti-Dollar ‘Currencies’ (Cryptos & Metals) Poised for New Bull Markets in 2024?
Will Bitcoin Set a Multi-Month Peak Near 45,000/BT… and How Low Could it Correct??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.