Bitcoin & Ether Peaking as Dollar & Interest Rates Bottom (in Late-December).
12/20/23 – “The Dollar Index remains capable of extending the latest decline into the next phase of its ~4-week cycle in late-Dec ’23. That is also when a ~24-week low-low-low-(low; Dec 26 – 29, ’23) Cycle Progression would mature. Corroborating that, the Dollar Index tested and held its weekly HLS (102.18/DXH) last week, portending a 1 – 2 month low in the ensuing 1 – 2 weeks.
That should also be a decisive time with regard to the Dollar’s monthly 21 MAC. If it closes below that average on Dec 29th (102.40/DXH), it would be the first time to do that since July/Aug ’21…
December ’23 begins a sharp surge in the monthly 21 MARC, which is inversely correlated to the monthly 21 MAC. As a result, that 21 MAC will have a much easier time turning down in the coming months.
It would not be surprising if the next multi-month sell-off in the Dollar Index coincides with another (future) move higher in Bonds – signaling a drop in interest rates that detracts from the Dollar’s appeal. Watch 1Q 2024.
The Euro surged back toward its recent high leading into mid-month, testing and holding its weekly LHR in the process. That projects a peak in the subsequent week(s), though additional upside could be seen first. If it sets new rebound highs in the coming day(s), the Euro will have rallied for as long as it sold off.
On an intermediate basis, the Euro is moving through a weekly 21 MAC transition that could corroborate its positive weekly trend action…
The Euro entered the weekly 21 MAC in mid-November, rallied and briefly closed above it, and then retraced back to the descending weekly 21 Low MAC – closing 1 tick above it on Dec 8th.
That spurred a new rally last week with the Euro closing above its contrasting weekly 21 High MAC.
If it can turn the direction of that average up, in the coming weeks, the Euro would complete that bullish sequence and further confirm the October low. It would take an intra-week rally above 1.1268/ECH (this week) or above 1.1159/ECH in either of the two ensuing weeks to turn that average up…
One other pivotal level could come into play at month end. It is the most recent weekly close at 1.0942/ECH.
In any given period, that level is ‘unchanged’ for the ensuing week and is ‘2nd Close Support or Resistance’ for the second week. In the current case, that 2nd week ends on December 29, 2023.
Why is that noteworthy?
It is significant because the Euro closed at 1.0942/ ECH on December 31, 2022.
So, that is where the March ’24 Euro is considered up or down for the year in 2023.
If the Euro closes higher this week (on Dec 22nd), 1.0942/ECH would identify multiple levels of support leading into year-end… so keep an eye on it.
The Yen surged again, after retracing 50% of its initial advance, and fulfilled cycle expectations for a mid-December peak. Some consolidation should follow. On balance, it is expected to rally into [reserved for subscribers].
Bitcoin & Ether remain in multi-month uptrends but fulfilled projections for rallies into Dec 8 – 15, ’23, the perpetuation of 36 – 38-week high-high-high-(high) & ~13-week low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progressions.
Bitcoin attacked its multi-month upside target – at ~45,000/BT (see Oct., Nov. & Dec. ’23 INSIIDE Tracks) while Ether fulfilled related targets at 2,350 – 2,450/ETH. A top is likely forming and could spur a pullback to [reserved for subscribers]…
Gold & Silver are closely adhering to their 4Q 2023 outlook. They sold off sharply after precisely fulfilling upside projections, spiking to new highs on Dec 4th – with Gold perfectly fulfilling its upside wave target at 2152/GCG (high was 2152.3/GCG) – and setting what would likely be multi-week highs.
During the ensuing sell-off, Gold dropped right to its weekly HLS and held, setting the stage for a low last week – surrounding mid-month. That low came as Gold was spiking below and reversing higher from its ascending weekly 21 High MAC. It triggered an outside-day/2 Close Reversal buy signal at 1997.3/GCG and surged on Fed news about future interest rate cuts.
In the short-term, Gold & Silver could extend their rallies into December xx…
Platinum is confirming lows and poised for a quick surge to 1060/PLJ or higher as it emerges from a ~5-month bottoming process and prepares for a new advance into May/June 2024.
It triggered a new multi-week buy signal on December 7/8th and then closed last week above its weekly 21 High MAC for the first time since May ’23. Today’s close was its highest since August 31st. Daily cycles next peak on December 26 – 28th.
1 – 4 week & 1 – 3 month traders could have entered long positions in April ’24 Platinum futures at 921 – 928.0/PLJ and can move trailing sell stops to . [reserved for subscribers; TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]…
The XAU & HUI remain on track for a 4Q ‘23 rally to 130 – 133/XAU & 251 – 254/HUI… The XAU & HUI perpetuated a ~5-week high-low-low-(low; Dec 11 – 15, 23) Cycle Progression and reversed higher, reinforcing the outlook for a continued advance into December 18 – 20… and potentially longer.”
Bitcoin & Ether are fulfilling analysis for major advances from their Nov ’22 lows (projected multi-year lows) into late-2023/early-2024. Bitcoin’s September buy signals projected a 1 – 2 month surge to ~35,000 (already fulfilled) and a larger 3 – 6 month advance to ~45,000+/BT (recently fulfilled). Ether has also fulfilled projections for a 3 – 6 month advance to 2,350 – 2,450/ETH… ushering in what will likely be a multi-week topping process as Dollar cycles bottom (December 27/28th).
Since July, cryptos have been expected to work higher into (at least) December ’23 as the Dollar declines. That could culminate in late-December when Dollar cycles (and near-term interest rate cycles) bottom. Gold analysis corroborates with Gold surging to its multi-month upside target (~2152/GCG) and peaking during December 4th cycle peak. The Dollar is projecting a final spike down into year-end, before a more significant bottom is likely to take hold.
Platinum is the latest market to prepare for a substantial surge, triggering a pair of buy signals on December 7th/8th and beginning to validate them in preparation for an accelerated advance.
Will Dollar Set Decisive Low in Late-December ‘23?
Are Bitcoin & Ether Beginning a Pivotal Topping Process?
How Low Could Cryptos Correct… and the Dollar Rally… in January ‘24??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.