Bitcoin & Ether Confirm Multi-Year Lows; Project Major Advances (~45,000/BT Target).
09/29/23 – “Over the last 8 – 10 years, while America has been preoccupied (for or against) with the topic of building walls to keep ‘outsiders’ out, China has been steadily building walls to hem in America’s (and the West’s) global influence and ‘corral’ her into a more confined role in geopolitics.
In many cases, America has done a lot of the ‘heavy lifting’ for China – often clumsily and impulsively reacting to global events with a tunnel vision that applies to the geopolitical structure of decades earlier.
When a globally-polarized response is generated – as it often is – China is presented with another unifying opportunity on which to capitalize.
And so they have.
Just Another BRIC(S) in the Wall…
Currently, China has not yet reached the point of critical mass but continues to line their proverbial ‘ducks in a row’ – waiting for the right time and events to enlarge their influence and global reach.
In many respects, this unfolding evolution has progressed on 7-year intervals… a textbook ‘week of time’.
The next 7-Year Cycle (2024) coincides with the culmination of a related 7th 7-Year Cycle for US Dollar hegemony in the world. ‘7’s often time or signify completion. This time is no different…
The Petroyuan…
2017 saw the introduction of a new vehicle – the petroyuan. It was created as a result of a common adversarial mindset: The enemy of my enemy is my friend. That is when the People’s Bank of China cut a deal with Russia to trade oil in yuan… a first.
Before underestimating this significance, remember what the creation of the ‘petrodollar’ in 1975 did for the US. That was when, after nearly bringing America to her knees with the first wielding of the ‘oil weapon’ in 1973, Saudi Arabia and OPEC agreed to price (and trade) their oil in US Dollars.
In essence, customers would need to ’purchase’ US Dollars – thereby supporting it and ultimately the debt that backed it – in order to purchase oil. And with that sudden surplus of US Dollars, Saudi Arabia would purchase American weapons and debt.
As that artificial support of the US Dollar continued, America went on a ’buying frenzy’, accumulating debt at an unprecedented rate. However, as is usually the case…
All good things must come to an end!…
As for the US Dollar, it appears the handwriting is on the wall. The massive debt backing the US Dollar has been ‘numbered, numbered, weighed & divided’ in the inscribed words from the Old Testament book of Daniel (see page 1).
2022 began a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War (after the previous 40-Year Cycle culminated in 2016 – 2021). Apparently, China got the memo!
All of this leads to 2024 – one complete 7-Year Cycle from the debut of the petroyuan.
2024 is also 49 years (‘Sabbath of Sabbaths’ or 7 intervals of the 7-Year Cycle; completion of completion) from 1975 – the debut of the petrodollar…
Bitcoin & Ether spiked lower into Sept 11, perpetuating a ~3-month low (Mar 10 – 14) – low (Jun 10 – 14) – (low; Sept 10 – 14) Cycle Progression while adhering to the wave structure and weekly/monthly trend setup that has been described since the mid-July ‘23 peak.
Following that peak, price action projected a drop below the mid-June ‘23 lows in Ether and a drop to – but not below – the mid-June ‘23 lows in Bitcoin. That is exactly what transpired with Ether dropping to its lowest low since mid-March ‘23 while Bitcoin repeatedly tested and held its mid-June ‘23 low.
From a price and wave perspective, that is a bullish setup which perpetuates the range trading and wave structure that has prevailed in Bitcoin.
On a lower magnitude, Ether mimicked what it did in 2022 with another pair of equal-magnitude and equal-duration declines (‘c = a’ wave structure) from its mid-April ‘23 peak.
Both sell-offs lasted ~9 weeks or about ~2 months and both dropped ~450/ETH (high close – low close) or ~500/ETH (high – low) into the Sept 11, ‘23 low.
As a result, these cryptos may have completed their corrections… Bitcoin needs a weekly close above 27,500/BTC to turn its weekly trend up and validate that. It just generated a weekly 2 Close Reversal Combo buy signal that should help spur new buying.
Bitcoin is adhering to its range trading in ~5,000/BT increments, setting a pair of lows near 25,000/BT (after setting successive highs near 25,000/BT in Aug ‘22 & Feb ‘23).
If it can hold this support and head back to ~30,000/BT, Bitcoin would likely break above that level and surge to ~35,000/BT as part of this next multi-month advance.
That is both a range-trading target and a 6 – 12 month LLH objective – originating from the Nov ‘22 low near 15,000/BT and the June/Sept ‘23 lows near 25,000/BT.
There is a decent chance that 35,000/BT level could be broken and lead to a surge to ~45,000… Ether is showing that it could extend its next multi-month peak into Feb ‘24 – the convergence of ~5-month & ~10-month related cycles.”
Bitcoin & Ether are adding confirmation that their Nov ’22 lows are multi-year lows that will spur a much larger advance in the coming months. Bitcoin is projecting a 1 – 2 month surge to ~35,000 and a larger 3 – 6 month advance to ~45,000/BT.
On balance, cryptos could work higher into (at least) Dec 11 – 15, ’23 – the next phase of the ~3-month/~90-degree cycle that timed consecutive lows and is due for an inversion. Ether is showing that this overall advance could stretch into Feb 2024.
Has Dollar Completed its Multi-Year (~14-year) Uptrend?
Are Anti-Dollar ‘Currencies’ (Cryptos & Metals) Poised for New Surges?
How Does Bitcoin/Ether Action Corroborate 2024/2025 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.