Bonds & Notes Confirming July ’20 (4-Year) Cycle Peak; Inflation on Horizon
10-30-20 – “Bonds & Notes have validated analysis for a final spike high to occur in June/July ‘20 and usher in a sizeable correction. That peak fulfilled a ~4-year low-low-low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression dating back to the 1990’s and more recently timing peaks in mid-2012 and mid-2016.
Bonds & Notes set their highest weekly closes on July 31 and triggered signals for long-term traders and investors to liquidate long positions and look for a reversal lower then (see Aug. ’20 INSIIDE Track). That set the stage for a 3 – 6 month (or longer) top and reversal lower – part of which was/is expected to be influenced by developing commodity inflation.
During the initial sell-off, Bonds turned their weekly trend down. They were recently joined by Notes, confirming a multi-month peak. That also ushers in a 1 – 2 week period when an initial low is likely.
Bonds & Notes could remain in their upper regions for a few months as euphoric bullishness begins to fade. Initial selling is rarely the immediate start of a new trend but rather a topping process that must unfold in order to shift sentiment over time.
Another resurgence of price inflation – in early-2021 – could also help change perspectives on interest rates…
Longer-term investors and hedgers can be liquidating long positions in Bonds & Notes and could have increased selling in early-Sept. A 2 – 3 week rebound could provide another selling opportunity.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Bonds & Notes have entered a projected 2 – 3 year downtrend after fulfilling analysis for a multi-year peak in ~July ’20 – while fulfilling analysis for a final, wave 5 of V advance into that peak. A multitude of factors are projecting an initial surge in inflation between now and mid-2021 (the first of multiple phases).
Stocks & Silver (representing paper & commodity inflation) triggered 6 – 12 month buy signals as multi-year cycles bottomed on March 20 – 27 – with stocks projecting a new 12 – 18 month advance into May ‘21. Lumber & Natural Gas did the same. Bonds could/should begin to fall when the masses recognize that we have entered a multi-year inflationary period.
2020/2021 represent final, culminating years of 40-Year & 80-Year Cycles – timing everything from War (watch late-2021 into late-2025), Climate (Drought Cycles peak in 2021/22 and shift to Deluge Cycles in 2022/23), Agriculture (80-Year Cycle shift), Currency Wars… and ultimately Interest Rates. The final year(s) of a 40-Year Cycle of Drought (into 2021/2022) could help magnify commodity inflation in the coming years.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.