Drought to Deluge Cycles

October 2022 – “Based on analysis of a consistent 6-Year Cycle, a Sunspot-related 11 – 12-Year Cycle, and a ~40-Year Cycle, I expect California and other parts of the West to see an abrupt turnaround in precipitation during the 2022-23 & 2023-24 rainy seasons (’water years’).

In recent decades, heavy rain years arrived in 2017 (highest total since records began), 2011, 2005, 1998, & 1993. 6, 12, 18, 24 & 30 years from those spikes pinpoint 2022/23 as a prime candidate for increased precipitation – based on a 6-Year Cycle.

Looking back over the past ~80 years, the water years of 1941, 1952, 1963, 1974, 1986, 1998 & 2011 produced surges in precipitation – averaging about 35% above the annual average amount.

2022/23 & 2023/24 are the next phase in this ~11/12-Year Cycle.

That is also when a 40-Year Cycle comes back into play – linked to increased rainfall in the early1900’s, early-1940’s & early-1980’s, following extreme dry years in each of the preceding decades.

Following the 1976 year of extreme drought, 1982 – 83 saw consecutive water years of extreme precipitation – combining to create the greatest 2-year period of rain since records began in the late1890’s.

Could 2022/23 or 2023/24 repeat this pattern and perpetuate that 40-Year Cycle?

Related El Nino cycles focus on 2023/24 for another chance for increased precipitation… based on cycle analysis…

While most meteorologists are forecasting another intensifying year of drought in the West (for the 2022/23 rainy season), INSIIDE Track is reiterating ongoing analysis for a dramatic shift to Deluge Cycles this winter. Flooding will be the bigger concern!

The water years of 2022/23 & 2023/24 are forecast to bring a substantial increase in precipitation… just as in 1982 & 1983.. just as in 1942 – 1944… just as in 1902 – 1904… and just as in 1862 – 1864… each time following 5 – 10 year periods of major drought. Get your umbrellas ready!…

2022/23 was/is projected to usher in Deluge Cycles with California forecast to see a repeat of 1982/83 (40 years prior) – when it experienced the two rainiest years since record keeping began. It is linked (by the 40-Year Cycle) to years of multiple extreme or record North American/US floods in 1942 – 1944, 1902 – 1904 and even 1862 (- 1864) – the year of ‘The Great Flood of 1862’.

That was the largest flood to hit CA/NV/OR in recorded history.

The outlook for the next two ‘water years’ or ‘rainy years’ in 2022/23 & 2023/24 remains that the Western US should see copious amounts of precipitation… despite the dire drought predictions from all the ‘experts’…

Just as INSIIDE Track was accurately forecasting inflation for 2020 – 2022 – in contrast to what the Fed and economists were fearing in 2020 (deflation) – flooding (not drought) and topsoil erosion is likely to become a bigger concern in 2023 – 2024.

That is the same time Solar Cycles and Volcano Swarm Cycles collide – portending natural based upheaval in our world. Also linked to these Natural and Solar-based cycles, a major solar storm is also projected for 2023 (and potentially 2024). It’s All Connected!”

INSIIDE Track, 40-Year Cycle – Drought to Deluge in 2022/23

08-29-15 – “40 years ago, California suffered severe drought in 1976–1977, exacerbating an already-challenging period of food production in America.  2016–2017 completes a 40-Year Cycle from then and could possess some parallels.  Before delving into that, however, let’s go back 200+ years and trace the progression of this 40-Year Cycle through the past two centuries.  (As I will discuss next month, it goes back much farther than 200 years.)

1770’s

The 1770’s – when discussing food crises – are best known for the Bengal Famine of the early-1770’s.  That Indian-based famine – that lasted several years – took over 10 million lives and is described as worse (in various respects) than the Black Plague that devastated Europe.

That famine is considered 1 of the 5 worst famines in history (right alongside the Soviet Famine of the 1930’s – also part of this 40-Year Cycle – that similarly claimed ~10 million lives).  India suffered another devastating famine – killing ~11 million – in 1783, just a few years after the 1770’s.  So, that ~decade claimed over 20 million lives with famine.

About the same time (1770’s), severe drought hit Colonial Mexico and drove the price of maize to astronomical levels.  In Europe, the (Czech) Great Famine – killing hundreds of thousands – began a series of famines that also hit Germany & Sweden.

1810’s

Diverse records show the appearance of drought in the 1810’s, 40 years later, ranging from S. Africa to China** and to America.  Multiple sources describe a 6-year drought in the Midwest in the 1810’s (as well as in the Indian Southwest).  Other sources also document famine in the early-1810’s in Europe… due to cold.

[**In another corroborating ‘factoid’, China experienced a 40-Year Cycle of famine, beginning in 1810 & 1811 & culminating in 1846 & 1849.  A minimum of 45 million people are believed to have died as a result of this 40-Year Cycle of famine.]

However, none of this compared to the impact of Tambora’s eruption in 1815 and the ensuing ‘Year Without a Summer’ in 1816 (reinforcing that a Food Crises can be triggered by diverse climate & meteorological extremes – from drought to flood and from excessive heat to cold).

In many areas (Canada being one of them), the worst drought in hundreds of years followed.  Famine is reported in 1816 & 1817, in many regions around the globe… particularly in the middle (and more densely populated) latitudes.

While Tambora receives most of the blame for this climatologically-challenging time, it was actually the synergy of multiple eruptions in 1812–1815 that contributed to the cooling climate.  They include:

1812: Initial eruptions of Tambora as well as eruptions of La Soufriere (Caribbean) & Awu (also in Indonesia).  These coincided with another seismic event – the New Madrid quakes in America, 4 devastating earthquakes (7.0–8.1) in an 8-week period.

1813: Suwanosejima (Japan).

1814: Mayon (Philippines).

1815: Tambora main event.

All of these exacerbated an already-tenuous time on earth, particularly with regard to agriculture & food production.  There is even thought to have been an 1809 eruption – perhaps in Latin America – that ushered in that period & began the cooling.

1850’s

40 years later, the Civil War Drought of 1856–1865 hit N. America; According to ‘Drought Research’ (http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/nineteenth.shtml), there were three severe droughts in the 40-year period between the mid-1850’s and mid-1890’s (the second one being spaced at the midpoint in the mid-1870’s) with the Civil War Drought hitting Texas & the West particularly bad (‘worse than Dust Bowl’, 80 years later):

“From the mid 1850s to the mid 1860s the West and Plains were struck by a severe drought. Years ago, David Stahle of the University of Arkansas had used tree ring analyses to suggest that, in Texas, this was the worst drought to strike in the last 300 years, worse than the Dust Bowl drought.”

In textbook cycle evolution, the 1850’s drought presaged certain things about the 1890’s drought… that were an unrecognized precursor to the Dust Bowl drought of the mid-1930’s (40, 40, 40).  They are all connected!  1850’s, 1890’s & 1930’s… a precise 40-Year Cycle.  According to the same source:

“The dust storms of the 1930s were unprecedented, during the historical record, in their severity. Before the expansion of agriculture in the Plains, the natural prairie grass bound the surface together even during droughts. It was the removal of these grasses, and replacement with wheat that could not survive, that exposed the soil to wind erosion in the 1930s…during the 1890s, it was clear that trouble was brewing. Dust storms did afflict the Plains during that drought…probably as a result of overgrazing of natural grasses by imported cattle.”

In another intriguing parallel, the combined effect of that trio of droughts (1850’s, 1870’s & 1890’s)  triggered government action:

“The 1890s drought was a wake up call that in the future, if further catastrophes were to be prevented, the Federal government would have to take the lead role in development of water resources, irrigation and power. The 1890s drought is partly responsible for the beginning of Federally-driven irrigated agriculture with the Reclamation Act of 1902.”

1890’s

The 1890’s – as just noted – were another decade with global famine, including the Ethiopian Great Famine (1888–1892) that killed 1/3 of the population, a Russian famine that killed about 1/2 million people, China (leading to the Boxer Rebellion) and in India (again; killing ~6 million over 6-7 years).

There was also the Australian ‘Federation Drought’ beginning in 1895 (lasted into 1903), initially triggered by an El Nino year in 1896.  A heat wave hit in late 1897 and set records (that still stand) in 1898.  A combination of 3 El Nino events, beginning in 1895–1898 (then 1899–1900 & 1901–1903), devastated parts of Australia.

The interesting thing is that this Australian drought piggy-backed crop failures (wheat) in Argentina in 1893 – that largely contributed to the U.S. Panic of 1893.  (Illustrating the dynamic link between farming & financial markets in the 1800’s, a bubble-and-crash was seen in Wheat AND a financial market ’panic’ or ’crash’ was experienced during each phase of the 40-Year Cycle – in the 1810’s, 1850’s & 1890’s.

The 1930’s & 1970’s were not much different – except for the fact the former was a deflationary extreme and the latter, inflationary…

This drives home the point that it is NOT critical to identify the cause and effect since the sequence of events often alters.  It IS important, however, to recognize that all of these challenges (SYNERGY) have recurred on a VERY consistent, 40-year basis.

As Goes California…

Returning to an earlier topic, California’s current drought has been compared to another devastating drought …in 1895.  The current drought is thought to be the worst since 1895.  So, California has at least two (40-Year Cycle) links…  Will the coming years complete a third?”

INSIIDE Track, September 2015

09-29-15 – “Throughout history, there has always been a vacillating cycle between times of shortage & times of plenty.  An oft-quoted example comes from the book of Genesis, when Joseph had been sold into slavery and ends up as second-in-command over all of Egypt – the political powerhouse of the day.

Based on Pharoah’s two corroborating dreams, Joseph determines that a devastating 7-Year Cycle of famine is on the horizon.  However, the good news is that a prosperous 7-Year Cycle of plenty will precede it.  With the proper leadership & disciplined approach, Egypt has the potential to make it through that tumultuous 7-Year Cycle (the second one) and remain a powerful nation.  Similar to the 40-Year Cycle, this 7-Year Cycle also was a time of preparation.

…But let’s get back to this 7-Year Cycle and link it to our over-arching discussion on the 40-Year Cycle…

40-Year Cycle Phases

Funny enough, this examination of the 40-Year Cycle deals primarily with a ~7-year period, every 40 years, that is almost as momentous (as Egypt’s).

In the case of the present day, key 40-Year Cycle events were expected – and materialized – in 2011–2014 (peak in Gold, moves to supplant US Dollar as global kingpin, culmination of Stock-flation, etc.) – as the latest 40-Year Cycles were transitioning – but the ‘stuff’ is expected to really ‘hit the fan’ in 2015–2021… a 7-Year period…

Swarms & Synergy

When examining these periods, one principle is vitally important – Synergy.

It is inadequate to look for one major event – repeating through history – and try to measure its cyclicality.  That is where most skeptics naively dismiss cycles and look no farther.   Instead, it is the groupings of events that are key.  I often refer to these groupings as ‘swarms’.

But, this synergistic principle (swarms) also applies to food & crop crises and to droughts & famines.  As demonstrated last month, the 1770’s, 1810’s, 1850’s & 1890’s each experienced ‘swarms’ of food crises, climate-altering events and all-out famines… at consistent, 40-year intervals.

Before continuing the discussion on that progressing pattern (from the 1890’s to the present), I want to touch on the overlapping 80-Year Cycle and what it timed before the 1770’s (part of the 1690’s–1770’s–1850’s–1930’s–2010’s cycle)…

1690’s

The 1690’s was another devastating decade that witnessed a famine in Scotland (killing ~10% of the population), a famine in France (killing 2 million), a famine in Estonia (150–175,000 deaths) and a famine in Finland (killing ~1/3 of the total population) – in addition to several other food crises.

The sum total effect was a devastating blow to Europe during this narrow window of time…

Rejoining that 40-Year Cycle discussion where we left off last month (1890’s), the next phase – and one of the most notorious and oft-cited – occurred during the depths of the Great Depression…

1930’s

The 1930’s are best known for the Dust Bowl that decimated the nation’s heartland in America & Canada.  It coincided with the 1936 N. American Heat Wave – considered to be the worst heat wave in the modern history of this continent.

However, that Food Crisis paled by comparison – at least when counting lives lost – with 1 of the 5 worst famines in history – the Soviet Famine of the 1930’s.  The interesting thing about both of these Food Crises is that they had a strong ‘human-induced’factor exacerbating them.

In the case of the Soviet Famine, it was primarily human-caused – the result of another wonderful social experiment in collectivist farming.  Regardless of its underlying cause, it resulted in a widespread famine that claimed as many as 9 million lives.

In contrast, the Dust Bowl was a synergistic combination of poor farming techniques (for decades prior), leaving little topsoil when trying times struck the landscape, excessive heat, drought & the economic challenges of the Great Depression.  It struck primarily in 1934, 1936 & 1939–1940.

And, at the same time (1936), China was hit with its second famine of the 1930’s – that claimed over 5 million lives (the preceding one – caused by drought – accounted for 3 million deaths).  That’s ~17 million deaths in 3 famines – in USSR & China!

[China has its own cycle governing the most devastating famines – with the two deadliest of the past 150 years arriving 80 years apart… in the late-1870’s & late 1950’s… accounting for about 10–12 million & 20–40 million deaths, respectively.]

1970’s

40 years later, the inflationary 1970’s arrived.  And with that, so did another Food Crisis – created by a combination of natural and man-made events.

From a climate perspective, there had been a progressive, steady cooling since the 1930’s – creating alarm.  At the time, a notorious ecologist – Kenneth Watt – explained in great detail how the dramatic cooling of the preceding decades was a certain harbinger of an impending Ice Age.

He explained how by the 1990’s, global temps would drop about 4 more degrees and by 2000, it would be 10–11 degrees colder.  Can anyone spell hyperbole?…

Other scientists & climatologists jumped on the bandwagon – as did Time & Newsweek, featuring articles in 1974 & 1975, titled: ‘Another Ice Age?’ and ‘The Cooling World’.  According to Newsweek, the  evidence supporting catastrophic global cooling had “…begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it.”

That 1975 article also warned that global cooling could usher in a ’drastic decline in food production’.  So, naturally, when 1976 & 1977 ushered in one of California’s worst droughts, the obvious cause was front & center on everyone’s mind.

While this topic evokes heated debate, there is little denying that the media was hyping global cooling throughout the 1970’s.  So, it was a case of perception governing rash reactions and/or public policy – the proverbial tail wagging the dog – without considering their future consequences.

While researching the specifics of that discussion, I found a website – populartechnology.net – that contained over 110 links to articles from 1970–1979 – building on these dire assumptions.  These articles included a CIA paper as well as articles in the NY Times & Washington Post… and many regional papers.  It was NOT just an isolated incident.

Most of them blamed air pollution for the global cooling and many of them warned of the coming food crisis that would inevitably result from that undeniable science.  Hmmm.

Believe it or not, I am not attempting to stoke that debate.  Instead, I am attempting to provide a snapshot of the overriding events and reactions of that period… since they have future ramifications.  One of the reasons for doing so is my suspicion that decisions of the 1970’s laid the groundwork for impending challenges in the 2010’s.

In a cyclic twist, the same governor presided over California when it was plunged into that previous drought AND its current, devastating drought – 1–2 years after he took office (Jerry Brown).  The more things change, the more they stay the same. The difference is that the 1976–’77 drought was much shorter-lived than the current one… and CA agriculture was not as massive…” 

INSIIDE Track, October 2015

10-29-15 – “100-Year Cycle Synergy

Let’s return to a related topic… The eruption of Mt. Tambora (1815) and the ensuing ‘Year Without a Summer’ is one of the most globally-notorious phases of that 40-Year Cycle.  It impacted crops, harvests (or lack thereof) and famine around the globe… as has already been detailed.  (It also impacted war; just ask Napoleon.)

Another reason that 40-Year Cycle phase is so intriguing – and projects focus to 2016–2019 – is the recurrence of a 100-Year Cycle that has triggered similar events.  Perhaps one of the best known examples – prior to 1816–1819 – was the devastating ‘Great Famine’ of 1315–1317 (-1322).

The ‘Great Famine’ impacted most of Europe, ranging from Great Britain in the west to Russia in the north & Italy in the south.  Recurring crop failures stretched from early-1315 through the summer of 1317 and were responsible for millions of deaths.

That Food Crisis coincided with the stark shift from the Medieval Warm Period (culminating in mid-1200’s) to the Little Ice Age (early-1300’s until ~1850).  In the midst of this, the 1710’s marked the culmination of the lowest level of solar activity in (at least) the past 400 years… and one of the coldest.  That drop began 100 years earlier – in the 1610’s.

1310’s, 1610’s, 1710’s & 1810’s… To reiterate, it is the transition period – between various types of cycles – that is often the most volatile.  We could be moving through a similar transition period in the second half of the 2010’s – when 40-Year, 100-Year & 120-Year Cycles converge.

40-Year Cycle & Climate Change

That provides a nice segue back to a topic revisited last issue – that of climate shifts (closely linked to solar cycles – the ebb & flow of high & low sunspot activity).  Temperatures have vacillated – often from one extreme to the other – along with this 40-Year Cycle of Food Crises.

Most recently, that can be seen in the swing from the Dust Bowl (excessive heat) – peaking in the 1930’s – to the cooling temperatures reaching a crescendo in the 1970’s (when many ’experts’ warned of an impending new Ice Age).  In many cases, this cycle might not time the precise peak of the warmest temps – or nadir of coldest temps – but it does represent the extreme, synergistic impact of related phenomenon (including drought, frosts, etc.)…

If this climate vacillation continues, I would expect the late-2010’s to see the extreme of warming and the transition into a cooling phase of recurring ‘climate change’…”

INSIIDE Track, November 2015

11-28-15 – “Dust Bowl Redux?

There is always a complex challenge when analyzing cycles of this nature.  The first is to identify those cycles and their likely ramifications (in general terms).  The more complicated part is beginning to speculate on possible specifics.  Due to its broader approach, the former has a much better chance at success than the latter.

With that in mind, it is important to discuss a few possibilities that could fulfill the potential… into 2021… there is another evolving problem that is like so many others – manageable for years & years, perhaps decades & decades… until it reaches a tipping point.  This one is the foundation of all farming (except hydroponic):  DIRT.

More specifically, it is topsoil.  While most observers would doubt that anything like the Dust Bowl (most damaging in 1936–1941 – 80 years ago) could occur again, it is important to remember that history resembles itself (NOT repeats).

During the droughts & crop shortages of the 1850’s & 1890’s, it was observed that the erosion of topsoil in the Midwest/Upper Plains (US) was a developing problem.  It reached its ‘tipping point’ in the late-1930’s – re-affirming the 40-Year Cycle.  Let’s look at a broader progression of US agriculture:

                — ~80-Year Cycle from 1770’s to 1850’s – when crop raising evolved to the Midwest US.

                — ~80-Year Cycle from 1850’s to 1930’s – when heartland of US became breadbasket of US.

                — ~80-Year Cycle from 1930’s to 2010’s – when Dust Bowl prompted mass migration to California and resulted in California becoming the country’s – and sometimes the globe’s – leader in food production.  (For example, 94% of America’s broccoli, 84% of our peaches, 94% of plums and majority of lettuce, carrots & celery come from California.)

                — 40-Year Cycle from 1976/1977 to 2016/2017 – linking California’s worst drought to its worsening drought… ushering in a vulnerable 3–5 year period…

Would that resemble the 80-year sequence witnessed in the Plains – from the 1850’s to the 1930’s?!

Could the late-2010’s spur a new cycle in which US agriculture is forced to de-centralize? 

As thinkprogress.org puts it, California produces 2/3 of America’s produce (as well as 80% of the world’s almonds & 94% of canning tomatoes) but much of that – like lettuce, celery, carrots & tomatoes – could be grown in many other locations.  And, until the middle half of the US became a giant monoculture, hundreds of small farms used to do just that.

But, the US Farm Bill has created bigger problems by prohibiting most of the massive corn & soybean farmers from growing other crops… or forfeit their subsidies AND have add’l penalties added on.

After all, it is critical that massive amounts of corn are grown – fencerow to fencerow – so it can be converted into fuel & burned in vehicles while trumpeted ’to feed the world’. But, we haven’t (YET) reached the tipping point, so… ‘no worries, mate’.

As with Stock Index cycles, it usually takes multiple challenges (synergy) to finally trigger a crisis…

We already have years of California drought & disappearing aquifers, morphing super-pests & super-bugs in the heartland & the disappearance of diversity in our food-production system.  But, what could push it over the edge?”

INSIIDE Track, December 2015

“W.C.C. II – When Cycles Collide in Climate, Sunspots, Volcanoes & Commodities

11, 17, 22, 40, 100 & 200 -Year Cycles Colliding in late-2010’s

11-27-15: I receive many inquiries regarding my outlook for climate change (usually directing me to analysis predicting an imminent Ice Age or the burning up of the planet) as well as corresponding analysis on solar cycles, earthquake & volcano cycles and commodity (food crisis) cycles…

As I have stressed repeatedly over the past couple decades, I view myself – and try to convey my analysis accordingly – as an ‘Aware-ist’… NOT an ALARMIST(!!!).  So, while I am convinced that several cycles are entering a period of increasing intensity, I try not to convey apocalyptic intonations…

Many events – if you read about them in advance – would sound apocalyptic… and probably seem that way to those directly involved.  But, from a global perspective, they are just big challenges… not a collapse.

A prime example was when earth disturbance cycles projected Major earthquakes for Chile in 2010, Japan in 2011 & North America for 2012 (see Earth In Transition: 3+3 Reports at http://www.insiidetrack.com/pdf/INSIIDETrackSR200912ET3+3IIem.pdf).

At the time, the discussion frequently cited the potential for a nuclear ‘incident’, similar to – but worse than – what had recently been seen in Japan.  One quote – from 1/29/10 – explained these massive earthquake cycles and stated: “2010 could/should see some major activity but 2011 is expected to foreshadow whatever occurs in 2010.”

That was written as the world was reeling from the Jan. 2010 Haiti earthquake and in the context of expecting a worse earthquake in Chile soon after… and then in Japan between late-2010 and early-2012 (later narrowed down to early-2011).

The potential ramifications – if those cycles were accurate – were startling!

In many respects, that could sound apocalyptic… but on a regional basis (not to diminish the tragedy of them).  Chile was rocked by one of the five strongest earthquakes in recorded history – in Feb. 2010 – and Japan was devastated by a massive quake and nuclear incident in March 2011.

However, that didn’t drive civilization into caves and off the grid.  While it may seem like I am belaboring this point – which I am – it is for good reason… to place these expectations (in this case, for an impending food crisis) in the proper perspective.  For example…

Throughout the last few years, I detailed expectations for livestock to see a bubble-and-crash scenario – its own form of ‘food crisis’ – leading into and out of late-2014.

Diverse factors (including an ongoing drought in CA) culled the herds & drove Cattle & Hogs to unprecedented levels into late-2014, from which they have since crashed.  In the past 15–16 months, Hogs have lost over 60% of their peak value while retracing over 70% of a 15-year advance.

That is a SERIOUS crash!

But, it does not signal the end of pork production, as we know it.

In fact, other than the exorbitant price of steak in recent years, one might not have even recognized the extremes to which livestock prices had risen into 2014… or the extent to which they have fallen since then.  It has been a crisis, not a collapse.  Please forgive my belaboring this point, but I need to lay an accurate foundation if this analysis is to be understood and perceived in the appropriate context.

To get the ball rolling, let me give a brief overview of what I expect in the coming years.  This outlook touches on each of the topics cited in the title on page 4 and is a very general description of what I could see unfolding…

— First, with respect to climate, I anticipate a similar scenario (of contrasts)… Simply put, I could see global temperatures – or at least some measure of them – extending their warming trend a bit more as we move toward 2019/2020.  There are multiple reasons for that (most will be elaborated later).

Among those are long-term cycles of warming & cooling – cycles that range from 22–25 years (partially linked to sunspot cycles) up to 100–200 years, as well as ~500 & ~1,000-year cycles of climate vacillation.

If there is one thing that is constant through all those cycles – it is change.

In fact, change is the only constant in the ongoing oscillation of global temperatures.  What else would have been expected – after a couple hundred years of warming surrounding 1000 AD and 400–500 years of dramatic cooling in the middle of the last millennium (Little Ice Age from ~1300–1850, with coldest period centered around 1600’s) – other than 100–200 years of warming, beginning around 1850?!  And that is exactly what has occurred.

In addition, on a smaller-based cycle, I would not be surprised to see another ‘post-El Nino’ warming spike begin in 2016 – a bit like what was seen in the late-1990’s and the early-1980’s (a 17-Year Cycle).  That could help spur a final ‘rally’ in global warming – into the late-2010’s – after 1–2 decades of stagnating temps since the late-1990’s.

That would also be in synch with the 40-Year Cycle & 80-Year Cycles of the past few centuries (including warm-ups in 1850’s – coming out of Little Ice Age – and in the 1890’s, 1930’s & 1970’s, following a 40-Year period of generally cooling temps from the peaks of the late-1930’s) – both of which portend either a culminating warm-up in the second half of the 2010’s and/or a multi-decade warming peak near 2019/2020.

Prior to the late-1850’s were the late-1810’s and the end of the Dalton Minimum (1820) – a low-point in global temps – and the late-1770’s, another cooling phase w/anecdotal evidence like New York Harbor freezing in 1780 – allowing people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island.

The 1850’s was the transition point when a 40-Year Cycle Progression shifted from low-low-low to the subsequent high (late-1890’s)–high (late-1930’s)–high (late-1970’s)–high (late-2010’s)… a textbook, 40-Year low-low-low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – targeted for ~2019/2020.  After that, however, I expect a phase of cooling (1-2 decades??) that could surprise the ‘warmers’.

2019 is also a convergence of sunspot & solar storm cycles (including 30 years from the 1989 storm and 160 years – 4 of the 40-Year Cycles – from the 1859 Carrington Event).  And, 2019 is the next phase of a 68-Year Cycle (4 – 17-Year Cycles, 3 – ~22.5 Year Solar Polar Cycles & 6 – ~11.2 Year Sunspot Cycles)…

From a market perspective, diverse indicators & cycles argue for commodities (& metals) to see an initial surge in 2016 with another surge into 2019–2021.  That ties into analysis for 2016 to be The Golden Year – the first phase of a bull market in Gold & Silver.  And, 2016/2017 should usher in Dollar troubles.”

INSIIDE Track, December 2015

07-28-16 – “With oppressive heat waves & ‘heat domes’ plaguing the U.S. and other nations (not to mention the rapidly recurring locust swarms around the globe), it is a good time to re-visit the topic of Food Crisis Cycles – another example of the 40-Year Cycle that is expected to trigger a renewed crisis in 2016/2017 through… potentially 2021.

While that actually applies to many crops, the focus of this discussion is on the grain markets (Soybeans, Corn & Wheat) and what has been – and still is – expected for 2016/2017… the early stages of a 3–5 year period when crop stresses are increasingly likely, based on cyclical AND fundamental factors…

As is almost always the case, however, it is NOT just one event or surprise that triggers this type of (anticipated) crisis – but rather the compound effect of multiple events…

40-Year Climate Cycle

One of the most noteworthy is the 40-Year Cycle of Climate Extremes that most recently timed the 1976/1977 California Drought & skyrocketing food prices into 1978–1980.

40 years prior, in 1936 (–1939/1940), it was America’s Dust Bowl & the N. American Heat Wave – as well as the Chinese Famine that killed ~5 million.

Exactly 40 years before that, the 1896–1898 Australian Heat Wave (& related Federation Drought… that dragged on into 1903) wreaked havoc.  Ironically, that heat wave came on the heels of the 1896 El Nino year – not unlike the 2015/2016 El Nino event.

Precisely 40 years prior, it was the onset of the 1856–1865 Civil War Drought that created a food crisis in America.  That was the first of 3 severe droughts – in the West & Plains – in a 40-year period (into the mid-1890’s).  At least where Texas was concerned, the 1850’s drought was the worst in the last ~300 years (worse than Dust Bowl).

And one uncanny 40-Year Cycle before that 1856 trigger, the 1816 Year Without a Summer impacted much of the world and triggered famine in 1816–1819.  So, you decide:  Is there some validity & consistency to the 40-Year Cycle of Food Crises?

Soybeans turned their monthly trend up on June 30, 2016, fulfilling the primary upside objective for 2016.  Coinciding with that, Soybeans attacked their yearly LHR (intra-year extreme upside price target) while completing a powerful 4-Shadow Signal… all signs of initial culmination.

All those indicators reinforced expectations for a much larger advance in the future… while also identifying the likely time for an initial peak now – the ‘1’ wave high of what is expected to be an overall ‘1-2-3-4-5’ wave advance…

Soybeans, Corn & Wheat declined in tandem, with Soybeans reversing their weekly trend down and removing the potential for a retest of their highs before a multi-month/multi-quarter peak took hold.  Soybeans had already attacked their extreme upside objective for all of 2016… so price targets had been met… after surging over 40% and producing the largest rally since 2012 – a 4-Shadow signal that portends a much larger advance after the next low…

From a cycle perspective, Soybeans were expected to surge into mid-2016 – at which point a 6–12 month peak was most likely… perpetuating a ~4-year low-low-high-high-high Cycle Progression – overlapping a ~360-degree high-high cycle that projected a 3–6 month (or greater) peak in May–July 2016.

The May–July period is when highs have been seen in each of the past 4 years… and is also when the multi-year highs of 2000, 2004, 2008 & 2012 were seen.  So, it was the ideal time for another multi-month/multi-quarter peak.

From a price perspective, the ideal upside target was/is the yearly LHR (intra-year extreme upside objective for 2016) at 1216.5/S.  Soybeans peaked at 1208.5/S in mid-June 2016…

From a multi-year basis, Wheat is showing that it could be poised for a multi-quarter (and potentially a multi-year) bottom in 3Q 2016… when it would complete a ~4.25 year high-high-(low) Cycle Progression.  A low in the second half of 2016 (ideally around Sept. 2016) would also be a complete 7-Year Cycle from its Sept. 2009 bottom – the lowest low of the past 8+ years.

Wheat is in the process of retesting that low as it completes a symmetrical ~8.25–8.5 year rally (late-1999–early-2008) followed by an ~8.25–8.5 year decline (early-2008–3Q/4Q 2016) – completing an overall ~17-Year Cycle from the 1999 Major bottom.

Ultimately, that could lead to a multi-year advance taking hold in 2017… a precise 40-Year Cycle from Wheat’s 3-year/150% surge of 1977–1980 (an inflationary period in most markets).

Meanwhile, Corn has been weaker than expected – breaking below its 6–12 month lows and nearing Major support at its Sept. 2014 low (and the lowest level since 2009) at ~318.0/C.  Between now and late-2016, Corn could drop as low as 290–300.0/C – its 2009 & 2010 lows, the lowest level since 2006 and its multi-year ‘4^th wave of lesser degree’ – the low from which its 5^th (V) wave advance (2008–2012) emerged.”

INSIIDE Track, August 2016

10-30-16 – “Action/Reaction

2013–2017, as emphasized dozens of times, was/is expected to time a generational shift – economically, monetarily & geopolitically…  Part of that discussion has focused on my expectations that the US Dollar would be going through a fundamental transition EVEN as it gained in value (see March 2013 discussion on Dollar Drawback, reprinted in Oct. 2016 INSIIDE Track).

That price rally – which could easily last into 2Q 2017 – was expected to disguise an under-current of steady Dollar ’attacks’ that would ultimately undercut the Dollar.  Although that analysis has been described in various ways, the simplest way of looking at it is through the lens of ’action/reaction’…

Action/Over-Reaction

According to Isaac Newton, for every action there is an equal & opposite reaction.  Note the key adjective there: ‘equal’.  That is the natural state of things.  Then there is the unnatural, a good description of what often occurs in the markets…

From an emotional perspective (which is what governs the markets), a little bit different principle often governs.  Let’s call it ’Hadik’s Principle of Action/Over-Reaction’.  (This principle often influences political discourse and conflict – on an individual basis as well as a national/international basis.)

“For many actions, there is an opposite & inflated (irrational) reaction… before cooler heads prevail and an equilibrium point is sought.”

That is what could unfold in the final years of this decade, a little like the final years of the 1970’s – one 40-Year Cycle ago.  It also has its parallels to what occurred during the final years of the 1930’s – another 40-Year Cycle ago – particularly in Europe.  And, it has its parallels to what occurred during the final years of the 1890’s – another 40-Year Cycle ago.

Of course, who can forget the final years of the 1850’s – another 40-Year Cycle before that…

That (1857–1861) is when the US government messed with Silver coinage (devaluing it by reducing the silver content of coins) – leading to the suspension of Silver, and then Gold, as currency.  That laid the foundation for the turmoil of the late-1850’s.

Internationally, the 1850’s saw a pivotal conflict between Russia & Crimea in 1853–1856 – in which Russia invaded Crimea.  In a déjà vu moment, Russia recently ’annexed’ Crimea in 2014.  Hmmmm.

At home, in America, regional/social/racial strife was escalating in 1855 as the nation became polarized (Bloody Kansas, etc.).  If I didn’t know any better, I would think there is a modern parallel unfolding in 2015-16.  Could the 40-Year Cycle (and its over-arching 80-Year Cycle) really be that accurate?!

2017 – The Transition Year

As described since 2013, I expected one phase of activity in 2013–2017 and another – the result (or the reaction/over-reaction) to that phase – in 2017–2021.  2017 is the pivotal transition year in that analysis.  It represents the culmination of one phase of cycles… and the onset of another.

As such, it is likely to be a very volatile year.  Consequently, this is an excellent time – and a very necessary one – to step back and view the forest as well as the trees… and review what is expected in the coming years.  The best place to start is with some of the longer-term cycles – the 17-Year Cycle & the 40-Year Cycle.  Let’s begin with the 17-Year Cycle…

Wheat initially fulfilled the outlook for a multi-quarter (and potentially a multi-year) bottom in 3Q 2016 – the completion of a ~4.25 year high-high-(low) Cycle Progression.  A low in the second half of 2016 would also be a complete 7-Year Cycle from its  2009 bottom – the lowest low of the past 8+ years.

Wheat initially fulfilled that while completing a symmetrical ~8.25–8.5 year rally (late-1999–early-2008) followed by an ~8.25–8.5 year decline (early-2008–3Q/4Q 2016) – fulfilling an overall ~17-Year Cycle from the 1999 Major bottom.  However, it has not yet confirmed a low.

That could ultimately lead to a multi-year advance taking hold in 2017… a precise 40-Year Cycle from Wheat’s 3-year/150% surge of 1977–1980  (an inflationary period in most markets).”

INSIIDE Track, November 2016

03-30-17 – “Deluge & Drainage

The Natural Year

The onset of the Natural Year (Vernal Equinox) has its roots in agrarian society and the emergence from Winter.  And just as every year has its  rotation of climate cycles – and every four seasonal cycles comprise each year – climate vacillates on a larger-degree cycle as well.  All are forms of ‘climate change’ on different time horizons.

I have previously illustrated the uncanny 40-Year Cycle that projects a crescendo of rising temperatures in the late-2010’s/early-2020’s (40 years from the peak in the late-1970’s/early-1980’s that was 40 years from the peak in the late-1930’s/early-1940’s).  But, that is just one factor…

As illustrated on page 2, the 2010’s are also the culmination of rising temperatures on a 100-Year Cycle.

The unique aspect of this Cycle Progression is that the 2010’s represent the inversion – during which the cycle that had previously governed sequential lows (nadir of cold temperatures) is now expected to time highs (peaks in warming).

Here is a quick look at the time frames included in that uncanny Cycle Progression:

1610’s – One of China’s coldest decades in recorded history.  It triggered massive famine and, not surprisingly, ushered in a ~40-Year Cycle of declining yields & harvests due to cold in 1610’s, 1630’s & 1650’s (China: An Environmental History by Robert B. Marks).

In additional regions, the 1610’s ushered in a 40-Year period of plummeting temperatures (over 2 degrees F in 40 years) that ultimately ushered in the coldest part of the Little Ice Age (~1645–1715).  The first River Thames frost fair took place in 1607 & was quickly followed by the freezing of the Golden Horn and part of Bosphorus in 1622.

1710’s – Culmination of coldest period of Little Ice Age and lowest period of solar activity (1645–1710) in at least the last 400 years.

1810’s – Multiple volcanic eruptions amplifying cooling temps, leading to eruption of Mt. Tambora & ensuing Year Without a Summer.  Agricultural ramifications were felt for years & decades to follow.

1910’s – Final dip & low in temperatures as Earth emerged from the Little Ice Age (~1300–1850 AD) and began to thaw.  Just as on a price chart, this ascending low – after three previous lows – projected an accelerated (warming) ~100-year period to follow, leading into a high during the next phase of that 100-Year Cycle Progression (in the late-2010’s).  So far, temps have cooperated!

There are even larger cycles that incorporate both the 40-Year Cycle & the 100-Year Cycle AND that powerfully corroborate this focus on the late-2010’s for a culmination of warming.  They are the 200-Year & 400-Year Cycles.

The 400-Year Cycle times the swings from the extreme lows of the early-800’s to the initial lows of the early-1200’s to the lows of the early-1600’s to the highs of the early-2000’s.  It is all very cyclical.

[The early 800’s & early-1200’s were also cold periods with the early-800’s timing the freezing of the Black Sea & Nile River (physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7x.html).   The early-1200’s were not nearly as extreme, instead representing an initial low coming off the warm temperatures of the Medieval Warm Period.  They were a harbinger of what was to follow, in the ensuing 400 years.]

That 400-Year Cycle of Climate dates back to at least 1,200 BC, the onset of civilization-altering cooling & drought (that lasted hundreds of years by some accounts) and has timed the larger-degree climate shifts on a recurring, 400-year basis.  It is all very cyclical.

Connecting most of these cycles, including the 40-Year Cycle, is also an over-arching 80-Year Cycle of Climate & Food Crises that dates back at least 800 years & also includes times of severe famine (not yet discussed) in the 1530’s, 1690’s, 1770’s… leading to the late-1850’s (Civil War Drought that lasted almost a decade) & late-1930’s (Dust Bowl) and ultimately to the late-2010’s (possibly carrying over into early-2020s).”

INSIIDE Track, April 2017

02-27-19 – “INSIIDE Track: “Outlook 2019 – The ~11-Year Cycle

The Sun has at least three intriguing cycles that repeatedly emerge in the markets, in geopolitics, in military conflict, and in most aspects of life.  The biggest (of these three, although there are also longer-term cycles as well) is the ~40-Year Cycle of the Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun.

To summarize it, this is the plasma flow that circumvents the Sun, moving from its equator out toward one of the poles and then – after sinking lower – back toward its equator.  It takes approximately 40 years for that to transpire… and then it occurs toward the opposite pole and back.

So, a total circuit would take roughly 80 years (perfectly coinciding with the 80-Year Cycle of War that comes back into play in 2021, linked to the US entry into WWII in 1941, into the Civil War in 1861 and out of the Revolutionary War in 1781.  In the colonies, England and Europe, that has been documented for a few hundred years before 1781.).

If I understand the process correctly, the initial phase – flowing from equator to pole – goes along the surface of the Sun and ‘sweeps’ up decaying sunspots and their related magnetivity and then drops them off at the poles.

As a result, it greatly impacts the magnetic force of the Sun… which impacts subsequent sunspots and the magnetic barrages periodically flung at Earth (CMEs)… which could have an exponentially greater impact as Earth converts to a digital world.

As a result, it would stand to reason that the fluctuations of the Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun dramatically influence the other two primary cycles in this discussion.

To and Away

The second solar-related cycle is the 17-Year Cycle that impacts some form of magnetic interplay between the Sun and Earth (the ‘to and away’ interaction as described by David Juckett at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1005075703810).  This has also been repeatedly discussed over the past two decades.  It has its strongest impact at the 34-year point (two full cycles), when it coincides with three of the following solar-related cycles…

Cause and Effect

Perhaps the best-known solar cycle is the one that governs the ebb and flow of sunspots or solar storms.  It is an ~11-Year Cycle (averages out to 11.2 years) that has an uncanny knack for also linking monetary and military events of cause and effect.  Perhaps a better way of describing that would be the Cycle of Unintended Consequence.

Events during one phase of this cycle often have a distinct and irrefutable link to events during the next phase.  In many cases, those phases also link similar players or similar events. (I have often documented an overlapping 11- Year Cycle that… recurs in 2021/2022.)

As time has unfolded, it has become clear that the Western financial and economic collapse of 2008/ 2009 drove countries like China & Russia into closer cooperation with one another, as an alternative to the US & Europe (see previous discussions on multiple unions spearheaded by China & Russia).  This cycle comes back into play in 2019 – 2020 and is likely to perpetuate/foster that alignment…”

INSIIDE Track, March 2019

“Outlook 2019/2020: The ~11-Year Cycle – Part II

09-30-19 – Late-Aug./early-Sept. ’19 ushered in a transition phase on so many levels, its significance should not be underestimated…

Grain markets sold off into early-Sept., setting secondary lows while completing ‘b’ or ‘2’ wave pullbacks.  That was/is expected to spur a new multi-month rally, with Soybeans projecting rallies that could easily reach new year-long highs.  (Soybeans & Corn generated intermediate buy signals in mid-to-late-Sept., validating this analysis and projecting new surges into Oct. ‘19; see Weekly Re-Lay.)…

There is another overriding cycle that could also be playing a role, even though it is considered more general and abstract.  It does, however, govern the explosive nature of the Sun which does have a measurable impact on Earth…

11-Year Cycle

The Sun goes through an approximate 11-Year Cycle (11.2 years is the most recent average) that envelopes its activity peaks to troughs and back to peaks again.  So, the lowest levels of solar activity (solar storms/sunspots and the resulting electromagnetic storms that are often hurled toward Earth) are divided by about 11 years and the most active phases are also divided by about 11 years.

In a strong parallel to Earth’s 17-Year Cycle – and its overlapping and more consistent 34-Year Cycle – the Sun possesses a 22-Year Cycle that is able to filter out some of the ‘white noise’ and demonstrate a stronger correlation between sunspot peaks or troughs and coinciding events.

It is that 22-Year Solar Polar Cycle that is a more precise or consistent cycle, partially due to how the Sun’s magnetic oscillations evolve.  During each ~11-Year Cycle, the Sun alternates the polarity of its sunspots – basically from northern-oriented to southern-oriented… and then back again.

So, it takes a full ~22-Year Cycle to return to a similar phase (with similar polarity) as its predecessor… Previously, I made reference to another moderate link that now deserves some added attention and reiteration…

The reason I refer to it as a ’moderate link’ is due to the small number of data points involved.  However, it has maintained a 100% correlation – with those data points – so it should not be ignored.  The data points all involve the time when the Sun is exiting its lowest point of solar activity – when few or no sunspots are detected for many months – and then begins to enter its next Solar Cycle with an intensification of these solar storms.

Like so many cycle transitions, this shift is often when the most abrupt reactions are witnessed in our world…

Late-2019 times momentous cycles… 11 years from the start of a previous price-inflationary period from late-2008/early-2009 into 2011/2012…. it is the time when the Sun could finally come back to life!  Could we see some fireworks (begin) in 4Q ’19?”

INSIIDE Track, October 2019

“Outlook 2019/2020: The 80-Year Cycle

10-30-19 – The 40-Year Cycle has powerfully reinforced its ubiquity and accuracy, right up to the present day.  While many of the events about to be discussed might be debated as to their individual impact or significance, they combine with so many corroborating events to create a synergy that cannot be refuted.

So how do the intensifying wildfires in California, the US pullout from Northern Syria (catapulting Turkey into the most decisive period in their recent history), the unresolved trade war with China, and the continued ascent in Gold – not to mention dozens of other seemingly unrelated occurrences – reinforce this uncanny 40-Year Cycle?

If they are somehow linked, what does that signify?

America’s Trio of 80YCs

In articles over the past decade, I have detailed the 40-Year Cycle that has governed America’s entire existence – incorporating everything from currency to conflict to agricultural development and shifts.  Global gold and currency action – dating back to (at least) the 1200’s has adhered to that cycle.  That cycle projected a momentous shift for 2017 – 2021.

A higher-magnitude 80-Year Cycle has timed the bigger, over-arching evolutions – most notably America’s involvement in major wars (1781 – 1861 – 1941 – 2021?).  That 80-Year Cycle of War has also governed European conflict – prior to and overlapping America’s existence as a nation – dating back hundreds of years prior to 1781.

As discussed in 2013 – 2015, that 80-Year Cycle has also timed larger migration shifts in America – tied to agriculture (and gold).  The excerpt on page 2 recounts a little bit of that analysis – detailing why I believe the 2020’s could usher in a developing shift away from California.  And that could impact a lot!

That doesn’t have to be a mass exodus, but simply a steady intensification of what is already emerging – based on many factors.  Numerous articles have already documented the start of this transition – an early fulfillment of the analysis detailed in 2013 – 2015 and another form of ‘canary in the coal mine’.

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-population-growth-20190501-story.html

https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265

https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-next-california-demographics/

They attribute a potential population shift to various factors – including an aging population (80-Year Cycle?).  With diverse living costs already sky-high, a demographic shift will increase the financial burden to fewer citizens – likely accelerating the exodus due to lack of affordability.

Increasing natural disasters – and the costs they create (directly and indirectly in rising costs like insurance) could exacerbate this.

[NOTE: I have no ‘axe to grind’ with California.  On the contrary, I love what the state has to offer and spend a couple weeks there every year.  I lived there in the ‘90’s, have more than half of my family based there, love the coast – from Santa Monica up to Mendocino – and have backpacked in Yosemite for a week at a time, 5 times over the past decade.  This is simply cyclic observations and analysis.]

From an agricultural perspective, there are factors that could push crop production costs up and validate the analysis described in 2015 (crackdown on illegal immigration, intensifying climate swings, etc.).  That could impact all of us (’as goes California’…).

This is just one subtle validation of the dramatic shift expected to take hold as America’s third 80-Year Cycle culminates.  There are other ’seeds of change’ that confirm related 80-Year Cycles and portend dramatic changes in the ’20’s.  Stay tuned…

2015 analysis examined an uncanny 40-Year Cycle and overriding 80-Year Cycle – both of which argued for dramatic shifts for California, beginning in 2016/2017 – 2021 (and potentially lasting for decades). As detailed then, these cycles timed the westward movement of America’s agriculture (and culture) in 80-year intervals.

However, a Perfect Storm of challenges was developing and could see the unwinding of that western movement in the years and decades that follow (2016 – 2021 and late-2010’s into 2020’s & 2030’s).

The first challenge was drought – similar to what drove many farmers west in the 1940’s after the Dust Bowl of the late-’30’s. A 40-Year Cycle of drought – beginning in 1976/1977 & accelerating into 2016/2017 laid the foundation – projected to trigger an extremely vulnerable 3 – 5 year period (into 2021).

Exacerbating that were wildfires, intensifying during the years leading into late-2015 and likely to continue. Finally, there was the potential for erosion of topsoil in the years that follow a decade of drought and wildfires.  2016 gave a small taste of that potential with El Nino-related flooding.

Since then, dozens of catastrophic wildfires have plagued the state – all leading to a subtle (negative) shift in migration patterns in 2017/2018.  Could that shift accelerate in the 2020’s?

Soybeans, Corn & Wheat remain in the early stages of a bull market…  Most recently, they rallied into mid-Oct. when Soybeans fulfilled multiple cycles and wave-timing targets – ushering in an intermediate (multi-week) correction.

That peak had Soybeans spiking to new multi-month highs, fulfilling their weekly trend patterns as they completed a symmetrical move from their Dec. ’18 top – first declining for ~21 weeks and then rallying for ~21 weeks.  All of this argues for a 1 – 2 month period of consolidation in Soybeans…”

INSIIDE Track, November 2019

“Outlook 2020/2021 – 80-Year Cycle of Agriculture

09-29-20 – America continues to evolve on a 40-Year Cycle basis.  By that, I mean that many social and economic swings have adhered closely to that 40-Year Cycle – the topic of dozens of discussions over the past decade.  The primary focus of that analysis has been the period of 2015 – 2021 – when seismic shifts were forecast to occur. When analyzing that, it is always important to remember that history rhymes… it does not repeat.

One current example involves expectations for price inflation in 2020 – possessing some similarities AND some very important distinctions from what took place in 1980… and 1940… and 1900.  In the current case, the 2010’s have seen an exponential rise in paper assets – most notably stocks (and bonds) – akin to the rise in commodity prices & hard assets in the 1970’s…

Adding another ‘rhyming’ factor, metals and commodities were forecast to see an inflationary price surge from March 16 – 20, ‘20 into 2Q ‘21 (at the same time Dollar cycles were/are bearish).  It is the subsequent period between mid-2021 and late-2022 when things could get a bit more ‘dicey’.

40-Year Cycle of Migration…

And then there are much larger, overriding cycles that might not always have a direct or immediate impact on specific markets… but ultimately do have a significant impact on the broader picture.  Since this usually involves a slower process (like reversing the direction of an aircraft carrier instead of a speedboat), it is often overlooked until it is too late.

In 2015, INSIIDE Track began to elaborate on the outlook for the late-2010’s (and early-2020’s) and the potential for dramatic changes.  One of the conclusions drawn then (2015) was that challenges in California were about to ratchet up to a new level.

A 40-Year Cycle of drought was transitioning and 2016/17 was threatening to usher in a vulnerable 3 – 5 year period during which a food crisis was expected to unfold (in diverse areas) as California was (expected to be) hit with escalating challenges.

One speculation, described at the time, was that El Nino flooding could hit CA in early-2016 and exacerbate the troubles already brought by years of escalating wildfires.  California and its wildfires were ‘rhyming’ with the Dust Bowl events in the Midwest 80 years earlier – in the 1930’s.  Along with that, the potential for topsoil erosion in CA was growing.

During the ‘30’s, the evolving dust storms (and massive topsoil erosion) decimated the prairies in the middle of the US and Canada – reaching a crescendo in 1939/1940 and ultimately driving farmers, ranchers and their crop-raising… to California.   Something remotely similar could soon repeat… and might already be subtly evolving.

As described in the late-2015 analysis (reprinted on page 2), US agriculture has evolved on an ~80-Year Cycle with the period of 2016 – 2021 representing the culmination of the latest cycle (and related 40-Year Cycle) – during which a developing food crisis was expected to unfold… in or out of California.

2019 – 2021 was the crescendo of that period and the expected time for when the consequences were most likely to manifest themselves to the masses.

The speculation then, and repeated in the intervening years, was that the mass migration West (since the Dust Bowl decade of the 1930’s) – to California – would begin to reverse itself after that time and potentially trigger a decentralizing of agriculture that had become so pronounced in CA.

(Obviously, that is likely to be a slower process since it is in the context of an 80-Year Cycle.)

Sure enough, 2016 brought El Nino flooding that was a likely precursor to the future.  In some areas, it demonstrated what happens when normal topsoil protectants are burned away and then flooded.

Also included in that 2015 analysis was conjecture that there would then be another warming spike after El Nino – lasting into 2019/2020 and exacerbating the drought conditions in CA (and in other areas).

Sure enough, global temperatures peaked in early-2016, spiking slightly above the 1998 peak, and then fell back for ~two years.  They then entered the latest surge and are likely to set another multi-year peak in 2020/2021.

(Global temperature spike highs have occurred at a similar ~11-Year Cycle as other solar phenomenon – peaking in 1988, 1998/99, 2009/10 and potentially in 2020/21.  This is NOT a political climate debate but rather an observation of shorter-term cycles.)

Is it possible that the events of 2014 – 2020 could spur a new migration away from California, similar to how the events of 1934 – 1940 spurred a migration to CA?  If so, what does that mean for the 2020’s?

And just to be clear, I spend time in CA every year or two and love what the state has to offer.  So this is not any sort of bias or political statement.  It is simply an observation of some very intriguing cycles that should not be overlooked.  Stay tuned…

Soybeans, Corn & Wheat fulfilled analysis for strong advances in June – Sept., with the second phase expected to be a surge from early-Aug. into mid-to-late-Sept. (after an initial surge into early-July).  Soybeans accomplished that…  Price action projected a rally above 980.0/S and ideally back to ~1060/S in Sept. ‘20.

They made it up to 1046.75/SX while surging into Sept. 18 – fulfilling these targets (in price and time) while also triggering traders to exit 1/2 of long positions (from ~850.0/SX) at 1045.0/SX.

Wheat has a combination of cycles that forecast an intermediate peak on Sept. 21 – Oct. 2.  That remains the case, but an opposing cycle low (~Sept 28) could provide a floor under any future corrections… as part of a much larger bull market.

1 – 3 month and 3 – 6 month traders could be holding partial long positions in Nov. Soybeans futures from 854 down to 846 – holding 1/2 of these. w/avg. open gains of about $8,500/contract.  The other 1/2 should have been exited at 1045.0/SX w/avg. gains of about $9,700/contract.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

INSIIDE Track, October 2020

10-29-22 – “Climate Cycles

In the mid-2010’s, INSIIDE Track described a convergence of longer-term climate cycles portending a culminating global warming in the late-2010’s and early-2020’s – leading into a multi-year peak.  [NOTE: I am NOT a climatologist or meteorologist.  This conjecture is simply based on cycle analysis.]

After a couple decades of fairly level global temperatures, the late-2010’s/early-2020’s fulfilled that outlook.  That is also when a Food Crisis was forecast to take hold – driving the price of grains and other commodities substantially higher.

2023/24 is when cycles project a bit of a shift after reaching new extremes.  One of those shifts could be seen in the West (as goes CA, so goes the US??)…

Based on analysis of a consistent 6-Year Cycle, a Sunspot-related 11 – 12-Year Cycle and a ~40-Year Cycle, I expect California and other parts of the West to see an abrupt turnaround in precipitation during the 2022-23 & 2023-24 rainy seasons (’water years’).

In recent decades, heavy rain years arrived in 2017 (highest total since records began), 2011, 2005, 1998, & 1993. 6, 12, 18, 24 & 30 years from those spikes pinpoint 2022/23 as a prime candidate for increased precipitation – based on a 6-Year Cycle.

Looking back over the past ~80 years, the water years of 1941, 1952, 1963, 1974, 1986, 1998 & 2011 produced surges in precipitation – averaging about 35% above the annual average amount.

2022/23 & 2023/24 are the next phase in this ~11/12-Year Cycle.

That is also when a 40-Year Cycle comes back into play – linked to increased rainfall in the early1900’s, early-1940’s & early-1980’s, following extreme dry years in each of the preceding decades.

Following the 1976 year of extreme drought, 1982 – 83 saw consecutive water years of extreme precipitation – combining to create the greatest 2-year period of rain since records began in the late1890’s.

Could 2022/23 or 2023/24 repeat this pattern and perpetuate that 40-Year Cycle?

Related El Nino cycles focus on 2023/24 for another chance for increased precipitation… based on cycle analysis.  That is another factor in this analysis.

Since 2023 is the year with the greatest synergy of cycles related to major solar storms, the next 12 – 18 months could see some abrupt shifts in climate-related events…“

INSIIDE Track, November 2022

 “Outlook 2023 – The Year of Disruptions?

01-04-23 –  2022 fulfilled a myriad of cycle projections – including a major top and sell-off in the stock market, a crypto meltdown, skyrocketing inflation & interest rates, a culminating surge in the US Dollar (potentially stretching into 2023), the onset of an 80-Year Cycle of War, and the shift to a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars.  Overlapping & reinforcing these expectations has been the latest upturn in the approximate 11.2-Year Solar/Sunspot Cycle.

Though it is rarely given sufficient credit, the Solar Cycle is one of the most impactful cycles on our world.  Along with related cycles, that Solar Cycle was/is forecast to trigger at least three major natural events in 2023/2024…

— Major Solar Storm in 2023

— Strong uptick in volcanic eruptions in 2022 – 2024.

— Surprising shift in drought/flood cycles for the Western US (particularly CA) in late-2022 – late-2024.

Climate Cycles

In 2022, INSIIDE Track reiterated why – in stark contrast to the calls for escalating drought in CA and the West US – cycles were arguing for not just one but two consecutive years of greatly-increased precipitation in 2022/23 & 2023/24.

That was coming on the heels of the culmination of the latest 40-Year Cycle of Climate & Food Crises – in 2021/2022 – when a MAJOR climatological shift was on track to take hold.  That had been discussed throughout the 2010’s and was forecast to reach a crescendo as food prices escalated and global temps experienced a final warming into 2021/2022… before a dramatic shift takes hold in 2022/23 and beyond.

That would repeat a pattern seen in 1976 – 1981/82 when the previous drought cycle was culminating and in 1936 – 1941 when the Dust Bowl was signaling the culmination of the previous Drought Cycle.

Prior to that, 1895 – 1901/02 timed the Federation Drought in Australia – the transition of previous Drought Cycles.  And prior to that, the biggest impact of the Civil War Drought took place in 1855 – 1862.

In each case, a final multi-year drought (and usually warming) period began in the ‘5’ or ‘6’ year of the preceding decade (1855, 1895, 1935/36, 1976 & 2016) and stretched into the ‘’2’ year of the ensuing decade – when abundant precipitation usually timed the shift of that 40-Year Cycle (1862, 1902, 1942, 1982/83 & 2022/23??) and the end of the Drought Cycle.

That dovetailed with previous discussions on longer-term cycles of drought that had forecast West Coast rains/floods in 2017 followed by a final global warm-up and drought into 2021/2022… before a deluge was forecast to occur in 2022/23 & 2023/24…  The most recent discussion of this explained the following:

10-29-22 – “Based on analysis of a consistent 6-Year Cycle, a Sunspot-related 11 – 12-Year Cycle and a ~40-Year Cycle, I expect California and other parts of the West to see an abrupt turnaround in precipitation during the 2022-23 & 2023-24 rainy seasons (’water years’). 

In recent decades, heavy rain years arrived in 2017 (highest total since records began), 2011, 2005, 1998, & 1993.  6, 12, 18, 24 & 30 years from those spikes pinpoint 2022/23 as a prime candidate for increased precipitation – based on a 6-Year Cycle. 

Looking back over the past ~80 years, the water years of 1941, 1952, 1963, 1974, 1986, 1998 & 2011 produced surges in precipitation – averaging about 35% above the annual average amount. 

2022/23 & 2023/24 are the next phase in this ~11/12-Year Cycle.

That is also when a 40-Year Cycle comes back into play – linked to increased rainfall in the early-1900’s, early-1940’s & early-1980’s, following extreme dry years in each of the preceding decades.

Following the 1976 year of extreme drought, 1982 – 83 saw consecutive water years of extreme precipitation – combining to create the greatest 2-year period of rain since records began in the late-1890’s… 2022/23 or 2023/24 repeat this pattern and perpetuate that 40-Year Cycle… the next 12 – 18 months could see some abrupt shifts in climate-related events…”  [End of excerpt from Nov ’22 INSIIDE Track]

This was being written at the same time mainstream weather & climatologists were warning about a ‘drier than normal’ winter for CA in 2022/23 and the near certainty of escalating drought conditions:

https://www.abc10.com/article/weather/california-drought/california-drought-water-year-winter-outlook/103-c340afd6-d180-4cb2-aeae-07b931f92875 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/ 2022/10/25/california-drought-forecast-record-dry/  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2  

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/noaa-releases-california-winter-weather-predictions/ 

Anyone wanna guess what has transpired so far?

A majority of regions across the state – from NoCal to SoCal – are at 150 – 200% of normal with a sequence of ‘atmospheric rivers’ heading across the Pacific with reckless abandon… and a ’bomb cyclone’ soon arriving.  Reservoirs are acting similarly as snowpack is also beginning to build… providing a powerful jumpstart to what cycles have been saying is highly likely in late-2022 – mid-2024.

This climate shift does NOT just impact CA or the West Coast and has been responsible for  major storms tracking across the US this winter.  More are likely to follow.  And this is likely a symptom of a more dramatic climate shift… at least for the coming years.  That is why it has been discussed.

One of the important points is that coincidence does not mean causality.  Each of these expected and/or maturing events… are all symptoms of a much larger, over-arching shift.”

INSIIDE Track, January 2023