Energy/Equity Markets Plunging Following Multi-Month Cycle Highs
Energy/Equity Markets Plunging Following Multi-Month Cycle Highs.
10/17/18 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – The 15 – 17-Week Cycle: “One of the most common intermediate cycles in the markets is a 15 – 17 Week Cycle. At times, it shortens to 15 – 16 weeks and adheres to that rhythm through multiple phases.
At other times, it lengthens slightly – to 16 – 17 weeks, and repeats at that interval. When it is holding to that latter frequency, it is roughly a 4-month – or 120-degree – cycle. At times, there are even competing ~4-month cycles within a single market – governing opposing highs and lows or even timing staggered highs & lows that overlap each other.
When doubled, this becomes a 7.5 – 8-month cycle. That has been cited in numerous markets, including certain equity indexes that produced lows in Feb. ’16, Oct. ’16, June ’17 & early-Feb. ’18 before an ~8-month rally into early-Oct. ’18,
Doubled again, it produces a 15 – 16-month cycle. That largest cycle is one that has been repeatedly observed and discussed in equity markets, energy markets, interest rate and currency markets and even several commodities.
A perfect example is the ~16-month low-low-(high) Cycle Progression that has unfolded in Crude – timing lows in Feb. ’16 & June ’17 followed by a ~16-month advance into early-Oct. ’18. That ~16-month advance broke down into an ~8-month low (June ’17) – low (Feb. ’18) – high (Oct. ’18) Cycle Progression.
The shorter (~4-month) phase has been discussed in everything from Gold & Silver (leading into and out of their late-2015 bottom and in the years since then) to Bitcoin to Crude Oil to Bonds & Notes…
Stock Indices have rallied sharply after perfectly fulfilling 2-Year Cycle expectations for a 10% sell-off surrounding the first two weeks of October… The DJIA & NQZ have already reached preliminary resistance so tomorrow’s action should be revealing. If a secondary top were going to take hold now… the ideal scenario would be [reserved for subscribers]…
The indexes now enter a 1 – 2 week period during which they should reveal if they are going to extend the recent declines and take this correction to a higher level. The Nasdaq 100 needs a weekly close below 6907/NQZ to turn the weekly trend down and generate a sign of a 3 – 6 month (instead of just a 1 – 2 month) peak…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil continue to drop sharply after Crude re-attacked and held the 2018 primary upside target that stretched up to 77.30/CL. In doing so, Crude stretched its 2018 advance a couple weeks longer than expected (after failing to turn its daily trend down in early-Sept.) but did not violate price expectations – leaving it on course for the year… Crude could see another 1 – 3 week decline take hold after some intervening consolidation – ultimately taking it back down toward [reserved for subscribers].
Natural Gas could not turn its daily trend down, leaving open the potential for another attempt at testing the monthly LHR just above 3.4700/NGZ. Intra-month support remains at 3.1000 – 3.1500/NGZ.”
Energy & Equity markets experienced initial sell-offs as they slowly validate multi-month cycle highs. Crude is powerfully fulfilling multi-month & multi-year cycles that projected a significant peak in/around Sept. 2018 (coinciding with Middle East cycles that project a major shift surrounding late-Sept. ’18).
Natural Gas, in stark contrast, was projected to see an initial rally into mid-Oct. and a larger overall advance into mid-to-late-Dec. ’18. October 2018 is validating serious trouble for both Energy & Equity markets – in perfect sync with cycles and analysis that have been discussed since 2017.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.