Gold & Silver Rallying; Aug 12 = Pivotal Time for Rebound.
07/30/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver produced spike lows in July ‘22 – creating what could be the ideal cycle scenario (4 months down/2 months up)… Both declined to the levels of their early-2020 highs – multi-year levels of ‘resistance turned into support’. From a timing perspective, Silver fulfilled a ~6-week low-low-low-low-high-high-high-high-(low) Cycle Progression while bottoming on July 11 – 18.
At the same time, Silver matched the duration of its two longest declines of the past few years. All three have been ~18 (17 – 19) weeks in duration – unfolding in Aug – Nov ’20, May – Sept ’21 and now Mar – July ’22 – an example of wave equivalence.
If this spurs a reactive ~9-week rally (50% rebound in time for Silver and the ideal scenario from a cyclic perspective), Gold & Silver could fulfill longer-term cycles that have been focused on Aug/Sept ’22 for a second (lower) peak in 2022…
From a price perspective, Gold matched the magnitude of its Aug ’20 – Mar ’21 decline while fulfilling an intermediate HHL objective in the Dec ’22 contract (~1710/GCZ) and testing the levels of its Mar & Aug ’21 lows (and Feb/Mar ’20 high).
Gold also fulfilled a ~2-year ‘flat’ correction – with successive highs at the same level (~2080/GC) and successive lows at the same level (~1680/GC)…
Since bottoming, Gold & Silver have surged immediately after the latest interest rate hike was official. Since that is probably the most extreme hike in this overall rate cycle, metals might be less impacted by the headwinds of higher interest rates and more supported by ongoing inflationary pressures in the weeks/months to come.
Gold & Silver each neutralized their weekly downtrends, an early sign of a developing bottom. That identifies Aug 12 as a pivotal date – the earliest the weekly trends could turn up…
Gold & Silver have rallied sharply after the July 26 interest rate hike. Gold turned its daily trend up and is likely to rally to (at least) 1810/GCZ – where initial resistance is most likely. That is where the coming week’s resistance converges with the May ’22 low – pivotal support turned into resistance.
Silver needs a daily close above 20.49/SIZ to turn its daily trend up. Silver has initial resistance around 20.77/SIZ…
Platinum & Palladium are rallying, increasing the potential for future cycle peaks in Sept ’22 (and then Mar ’23). This comes right after Platinum matched the duration (18 – 19 weeks) and magnitude (~350.0/PL) of its May – Sept ’21 decline, fulfilling two forms of wave equivalence and reinforcing the potential for a bottom. It also, from its Feb ’21 peak, matched the magnitude of its Jan – Mar ’20 plunge.”
Gold & Silver are corroborating the 2022/23 outlook and multi-month cycles that peaked in 1Q ‘22 while Gold was fulfilling the primary upside target for a ‘5’ of ‘V’ wave peak (a top that is likely to hold for at least 6 – 12 months). The XAU/HUI Indexes set subsequent peaks in April ’22 – fulfilling very consistent ~23-week & ~10-month cycles in both. The ~10-month cycle projects a future peak in Feb ’23 and provides important clues as to when an intervening multi-month bottom is most likely.
Gold fulfilled a primary (3 – 6 month) objective by dropping back to ~1680/GC (see 5/11/22 issue of The Bridge as well as related publications) as part of multi-year wave structure and a larger decline in Gold now that a wave ‘V’ peak is likely intact. The test of that support projected a 1 – 2 month bottom to take hold and spur a rally back to ~1810/GC or higher.
What Would Future Close Below 1680/GC Mean for Gold? …And When is that More Likely?
How Does Gold/Silver Action Reinforce 2022 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.