Gold & Silver (& XAU) Completing Projected Declines; Aug 14 – 25 ’23 = Cycle Low.
08-16-23 Gold/Silver/XAU: The Time Has (Almost) Come! – “Gold & Silver remain in multi-month consolidation phases between their late-Feb/early-March ’23 lows and the subsequent cycle highs set on May 3 – 5. Those highs fulfilled ~3-month low-high-(high) & ~4-month low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions and were projected to usher in a corrective phase that would not set a final bottom until Aug 14 – 25, ’23.
A secondary peak arrived in mid-July, fulfilling a ~3-month/~90-degree Silver cycle from its mid-April & mid-Jan ’23 highs. Those highs were preceded by lows in mid-Oct & mid-July ’22… and a high in mid-April ’22… a consistent string of ~3-month turning points.
The mid-July ’23 high fulfilled a ~3-month/~90-degree low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and projects another high in mid-Oct ’23 (possibly diverging & preceding early-Nov highs in Gold).
In the midst of these cycle highs, Gold & Silver have corrected into the convergence of multiple cycle lows. The most prominent is a consistent 22 – 23-week high-high-high-high-low-low-(
That dovetails with the weekly HLS indicator in Silver, projecting a (minimum) 1 – 2 month low by/on Aug 18, ‘23. This overall decline has now also fulfilled two critical indicators – both of which reached fruition when Gold & Silver spiked below their late-June lows…
- New lows fulfilled the minimum necessary for a ‘c’ wave decline (a-b-c correction from early-May ’23 cycle high) after both metals completed 5-wave advances from late-2022 into early-March ’23.
- New lows fulfilled the weekly downtrend patterns in both metals…
During the rallies into mid-July, Gold failed to neutralize its weekly downtrend as Silver twice neutralized its weekly downtrend but failed to turn it up. Both patterns argued for a drop back to the late-June ’23 lows.
These spike lows provide the minimum necessary to fulfill those indicators but do not automatically signal a multi-month bottom.
The focus remains on the potential for a future, more significant peak in late-Oct/early-Nov ‘23 – the next phase of a consistent ~9.5-month cycle that timed the March ‘22 peak and then the early-Jan ‘23 peak. It would also fulfill an over-arching ~19-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver & complete a ~1-year/~360-degree advance in Gold.
The early-May ‘23 peak created a corroborating ~6-month/~180-degree low (early-Nov ‘22) – high (early-May ‘23) – high (early-Nov ‘23) Cycle Progression. As is often the case, a large part of the next advance could occur toward the end of that cycle.
(xxxx – xxxx ’23 is a prime time for an accelerated rally, due to key cycles and the weekly 21 MARC. It is even possible it begins in xxxx.)
For now, the intermediate trends remain down until daily closes above 1948.5/GCZ & 23.40/SIZ.
The XAU & HUI are poised for similar lows as the HUI projects a low by Aug 17, ’23 – fulfilling a 22 – 23-week high (Nov 15-22, ’21) – high (Apr 18-25, ’22) – low (Sept 19-26, ‘22) – low (Feb 24-Mar 9, ’23) – (low; Aug 3 – 17, ’23) Cycle Progression – while the XAU portends a low on Aug 14 – 21, ’23 (based on related cycles).
Both indexes also remain in monthly uptrends, reinforcing the potential for a new multi-month rally in Sept/Oct ’23 (potentially beginning around Aug 18/21, ‘23). Both are also attacking their 2 – 4 month primary downside targets – their 4th wave of lesser degree support – at ~110 – 112/XAU & ~210 – 214/HUI.
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Gold & Silver remain on track for an overall decline (from 3 – 6 month cycle highs in early-May ’23) into August 17 – 24 when the next projected multi-month low has been forecast (since March ’23) to take hold. That is when a myriad of weekly & monthly cycle lows converge and usher in a unique period of time – in the markets and geopolitically from that point forward.
Geopolitical cycles argue for a related trigger event on ~Aug 22 – 24, ’23 (when Vladimir Putin is projected to ‘make a statement’ with some sort of action that alters the landscape moving forward and starts the clock ticking on a more significant event leading into future cycle highs).
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! The XAU & HUI are projected to set decisive lows surrounding mid-Aug ’23, ideally on Aug 17 – 21, ’23 – the recurrence of an uncanny 23-week high-high-high-low-low (Mar 6 – 10, ’23) – (low; Aug 14 – 21, ’23) Cycle Progression that portends a multi-month bottom on Aug 14 – 21, ’23 (greatest synergy of cycles on Aug 17/18, ’23).
Where are Metals Likely to Bottom on August 17 – 24, ’23?
Will Geopolitical ‘Statement’’ (Aug 22 – 24, ’23) Set Stage for Next Rally!
How Could Impending Gold/Silver Low (Aug 14 – 25, ‘23) Corroborate 2024/25 Outlook?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.