Gold & Silver Poised for New Surges; Early-March Cycle Lows Concur.
03-04-23 – Gold & Silver have corrected after Silver peaked in early-Jan ‘23, while fulfilling weekly & monthly cycles, and Gold stretched its rally into early-Feb ’23. Silver’s Jan ‘23 peak fulfilled its multi-month upside target (24.50 – 24.68/SIH) and set the stage for a 1 – 2 month correction.
That has resulted in Silver dropping into a ~6-month/24 – 26-week high-high-low (Aug 29 – Sept 2, ’22) – (low; Feb 24 – Mar 3, ’23) Cycle Progression – a ~6-month/~180-degree move from its Sept 1 low. A low at this time would also complete a 50% retracement in time (4 months up, 2 months down).
This is occurring as Silver has just completed a precise .618 retracement (of its Sept – Jan ’23 rally) while dropping to 20.50/SIK. At the same time, Gold has repeatedly tested its 2 – 4 week downside target at ~1820/GCJ. From a price perspective, this is an ideal scenario for a multi-week low…
Silver’s daily/weekly cycles were/are in early-Jan, early-March & early-May ’23. Gold, due to its ~2-month delay in starting its advance (Silver bottomed in early-Sept ‘22 while Gold waited until early-Nov ’22 to bottom), had those cycles in early-Feb, early-March & early-May ’23.
While Silver showed multiple signs of setting a multi-month peak in early-Jan ’23 – including fulfilling all its 3 – 6 month upside potential (3 – 6 month price targets were at 1950 – 1980/GC & 24.50 – 25.00/SI), Gold was expected to continue its rally beyond then… Gold just generated an outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher which should spur some follow-through buying. That should propel Gold up to 1890 – 1900/GCJ.
In a very bullish short-term scenario, Gold could spike as high as [reserved for subscribers] – attacking its weekly LHR (extreme upside weekly target) and its .618 rebound target… would reinforce the next convergence of daily/ weekly cycle highs… in early-May ’23.
A high at that time would fulfill a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold. If a high is seen in the coming days/week, Silver would also create a ~2-month low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression recurring in early-May ’23.
Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23. And that would arrive ~6-months/~180 degrees before a more significant cycle peak in early-Nov ’23 (see March ’23 INSIIDE Track for additional details).
The XAU & HUI reached and briefly spiked below their 2 – 4 week downside targets at 115/XAU & 220/ HUI while fulfilling their weekly HLS indicators and precisely fulfilling a 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that timed the Sept ’22 low and returned on Feb 24 – Mar 10, ’23.
From a cyclic, price, and wave perspective, these indexes are steadily tracing out a textbook wave structure, first surging into Jan ’23 and fulfilling ongoing projections for multi-month rallies to 137.29 – 139.84/XAU & 259.42 – 262.31/HUI. They peaked at those target ranges and reversed lower.
They sold off to/below downside price targets and fulfilled weekly cycles in late-Feb ‘23, setting up for a ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave low (primary low was Sept ’22). The first advance – into Jan ’23 – was able to reverse the monthly trend up, a lagging and confirming indicator that usually reverses at/near the culmination of an initial multi-month rally.
At the time, the XAU perpetuated a 9 – 10 month/ 41 – 45 week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that returns in 4Q ’23 – when another decisive peak is expected…
Platinum & Palladium are showing signs of reversing higher, initially validating the outlook for a 1 – 2 month low to take hold this past week. Platinum sold off into late-Feb ’23 – the same time other 90/180/360-degree cycles came into play – very similar to cycles in Silver.
A low at this time would fulfill a ~6-month high-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a 50% retracement in time (18 wks up/9 wks down)… but would not be validated until a weekly close above 980.0/PLJ.
From a price perspective, Platinum plunged to its monthly HLS (extreme downside target for Feb ‘23) at ~905.0/PLJ, where a low is likely. That is also near the levels of the Sept & Dec ’21 lows – creating the potential for an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern on a 1 – 2 year basis. The next multi-month high could stretch into early-to-mid-May ‘23, the next phase of that 18 – 19 week Cycle Progression.
Palladium spiked down to multi-year range-trading support (1400 – 2200 – 3000/PA), reinforcing its ongoing weakness. It has declined for almost a full year from its early-Mar ’22 peak and would not show any convincing signs of a multi-month bottom until, at the very least, a weekly close above 1600/PAM.”
Gold & Silver fulfilled the 1 – 2 year outlook for lows in Sept ’22 (SI) and Nov/Dec ’22 (GC), followed by strong multi-month surges. At that time, they entered the ideal situation – based on inflationary factors (slowing), interest rates, and the Dollar (peaking) – for the onset of a very bullish 1 – 2 year period.
They are poised to set multi-month (secondary) bottoms at any time, completing ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave pullbacks (following the initial impulse waves from the Sept & Nov ’22 lows) and setting the stage for strong rallies in March/April ’23… coinciding with the outlook for topping interest rates and bottoming Bonds & Notes. However, they would also be a likely harbinger of a new (different) phase of inflation in 2023/24.
The XAU & HUI are similar and portend a multi-month low by March 6 – 10 – during the latest phase of an uncanny ~23-Week Cycle. The monthly trend projects a strong rally to new intra-year highs to follow.
How High Could Gold & Silver (&XAU) Reach in 2023?
Will the Outlook for Bonds (Bottom in ~March ’23) & Interest Rates Concur?
What Other Factors Could Positively Impact Gold & Silver in 2023?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.