Gold Remains Strong; Silver Projects Drop to ~21.50/SI … XAU & HUI Peaking.
01/21/23 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver remain strong but have fulfilled the overall outlook for an advance into Jan. and up to key upside price targets (as part of a larger, overall advance into late-Feb/early-Mar ‘23). However, they have not yet signaled a reversal lower so the uptrends remain in force.
Silver peaked on Jan 3, fulfilling its ~6-week high-high-high-high-low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and has consolidated since then. It needs a daily close below 23.26/SIH to turn the daily (and intra-month) trend down and confirm a peak. It is tracing out a textbook daily 21 MAC sequence that is also positioned to signal a top.
This is occurring after Silver perpetually attacked – and held – its primary ~4-month upside target (and the precise target for its Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern) around 24.50/SIH… and is likely to correct to ~21.50/SIH.
Gold also rallied into early-Jan, fulfilling key weekly and monthly cycles, and then pulled back. It remained in positive territory (never turning neutral) during that pullback and then signaled an extension to its uptrend – projecting a renewed rally into the past week…
Gold remains in bullish territory and would show no signs of a near-term peak until [reserved for subscribers]…
Ultimately, Gold & Silver are still likely to work higher (on balance) into late-Feb/early-Mar ’23… the precise time that cycles converged in 2022 & timed a decisive peak. If Gold sets a subsequent peak at that time (Feb 27 – Mar 10, ’23), it would perpetuate a 51- 52-week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression & complete a 50% rebound in time (34 wks down/17 wks up).
On a broader basis, Gold & Silver continue to build the case for a major low being set – in Sept ’22 for Silver and 4Q ’22 (Nov ’22) in Gold – the early stages of what could be a new 6 – 12 month (possibly 1 – 2 year) advance.
The Nov ’22 INSIIDE Track reiterated this potential and why the early-Sept ’22 low in Silver was likely a major ‘B’ wave low before a 1 – 2 year ‘C’ wave rally. (Platinum has a similar wave structure and outlook.)
After a ~2-year flat correction in Gold (Aug ’20 & Mar ’22 highs near same levels and Mar ’21 & Oct/ Nov ’22 lows near same levels), that was almost a perfect 50% retracement in time (56 months up/27 months down), Gold is likely tracing out the first impulse wave of a larger, overall advance…
Silver maintains the potential to see a drop to ~21.90/SIH by the end of Jan ’23 and to ~21.50/SIH (possibly 21.00/SIH) by/in early-Feb ‘23. Silver now has its latest 3 (of 3) weekly HLS levels grouped at 21.91 – 22.10/SIH, an extreme weekly downside target that could be reached in the coming week. That is also where the coming week’s 21 High MAC will likely come into play.
Silver has been tracing out a textbook daily 21 MAC sequence, first dropping to the rising daily 21 Low MAC and then reversing back up. It then rebounded to the rising daily 21 High MAC and quickly sold off to, and closed below, the still rising daily 21 Low MAC. That was the first signal of a developing (bearish) reversal.
Silver then rallied back to its flattening daily 21 High MAC and then sold off to its flattening daily 21 Low MAC – trading within this channel as the channel was/is preparing to reverse lower… This (second) time, that would be expected to coincide with the direction of the daily 21 Low MAC turning down…
The XAU & HUI fulfilled ongoing projections for overall advances to 135 – 137/XAU & 250 – 260/HUI with both indexes rallying right to, and spiking above, their Jan ’23 LLRs, weekly LHRs (137.07/ XAU & 261.98/HUI), and the XAU’s monthly 21 Low MARC & 21 High AMAC (136.22 – 138.99/XAU) at the same time they were testing and holding weekly resistance zones (137.29 – 139.84/XAU & 259.42 – 262.31/HUI). That was/is expected to spur a drop to their mid-Dec lows near 115/XAU & 220/HUI.
Platinum & Palladium continue to sell off after Platinum peaked while fulfilling an 18 – 19 week low-low-low-low-(high; Jan 3 – 13, ‘23) Cycle Progression. At the very least, this should spur a drop back to 970 – 980/PLJ…
Copper is reinforcing recent strength and is likely to ultimately extend this advance into early-March ’23. An intervening low could be seen around Feb. 10/13, the next phase of a 5 – 6-week/37 – 39-day low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.”
Silver fulfilled projections for a multi-month advance to 24.50 – 25.00/SI into early-Jan ’23 when a multi-week or multi-month peak was/is likely. It is expected to correct to (at least) 21.50/SI before a pullback low is likely. Gold is reinforcing its early-Nov ’22 buy signals and triggered a new buy signal in early-Jan, reinforcing the outlook for an overall rally into Feb/Mar ’23.
The XAU & HUI are corroborating this outlook and on track for surges above 135/XAU & 250/HUI. Platinum spiked above 1100/PL while fulfilling weekly cycles on Jan 3 – 13.
How High Could Gold Reach in 1Q ‘23?
How Could This Impact Future Cycle Highs (in 3Q ’23)?
How Long Should Silver its early-Jan ’23 Cycle High?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.