Gold & Silver Bottoming; Sept ’23 Begins Middle East War Cycles.
08-30-23 – “There are certain points within each given year, and within any given cycle, that act as inflection points – a perfect time to assess what has occurred up to that point and what could/should follow.
They are often the culmination of one intermediate cycle and the onset of a subsequent one (that combine with other intermediate cycles to create the larger overriding cycle). They usually reveal themselves months in advance and are steadily reinforced as their fulfillment approaches and corroborating cycles or events emerge.
A perfect example was in late-Feb/early-March ‘22, when cycles in Gold & Silver, Wheat & Soybeans, and a host of other markets projected an accelerated rally as geopolitical cycles collided.
Analysis and expectations for that time frame were published for months in advance. When Russia invaded Ukraine, Gold & Wheat skyrocketed, and most other markets reacted accordingly, it powerfully fulfilled that ‘pivot point’…
On a broader basis, equities continue to trace out a large, multi-year topping phase that began with 1 – 2 year (or longer) peaks in late-2021/early-2022 and could be followed by subsequent peaks in 2024 – the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle from the 2007 peak and subsequent 2008 meltdown (watch 2025).
Those 2024 peaks are likely to be divergent peaks as some indexes rally to higher highs while others set lower highs. That would perpetuate an uncanny 17-Year Cycle that has also had a remarkably strong correlation with and adherence to Middle East War/Conflict Cycles (which begin in Sept 2023).
That 17-Year Cycle previously timed the 3Q 1990 equity peak as Saddam Hussein was invading Kuwait (Middle East war) and triggering what would ultimately be a pair of ’Persian Gulf Wars’. That arrived another 17-Year Cycle from the 1973 Major stock market top and coinciding Yom Kippur War.
That 1973 stock market peak (and ~50% crash) came a full 17-Year Cycle from a multi-year stock market top in 1956 (that triggered a ~20-month/~15% decline)… and a corresponding Middle East war (Suez Crisis or Second Arab/Israeli War).
And that peak arrived 17 years after a secondary peak was set in 1939 – leading to a ~30-month/~37% decline that overlapped the Great Arab Revolt. In other words, it has been a consistent cycle…
Gold & Silver continue to reinforce analysis that projected major, multi-year lows to take hold in late-2022… and usher in subsequent multi-year advances. That was a result of the synergy of many factors – technical, cyclical AND fundamental – that identified this period of time (late-2022 – 2024 – ??) as an opportune one for precious metals.
As described repeatedly, those factors ushered in a ‘sweet spot’ for Gold & Silver… beginning in 4Q ’22 and likely extending into 2024. That term describes the unique period of time – within an inflationary cycle – when economic activity and price inflation are still much higher than normal (supporting ‘inflationary’ metals like Silver) BUT the threat of looming and repeated interest rate hikes is greatly lessened.
The latter stages of that interest rate cycle, as described in late-2022 and early-2023, are also often when the Dollar loses value as the perceived support of repeated future interest rate hikes – which help bolster its value – begins to wane. That creates a bullish ‘double whammy’ (a highly technical term) for a market like Silver… a carrot and (loss of) a stick.
The removal of negative interest rate influence and the increasing addition of positive Dollar action (dropping) combines to support Silver – even more so than Gold – during that phase of an inflationary cycle. There is also a third factor that is likely to create a ‘triple whammy’ in the coming year(s).
In late-2022, wave action, price indicators, trend factors, fulfilled downside targets, multi-month & multi-year support levels, and other bullish factors corroborated that ‘sweet spot’ analysis and signaled a major low in Silver.
It is important to fully understand the potential ramifications of this since they could be profound and somewhat-longer lasting than some might expect.
In Sept/Oct ‘22, INSIIDE Track and the Weekly Re-Lay detailed why and how Gold & Silver were likely bottoming on a multi-year basis – as a brand new Currency War was in its infancy – and poised to enter several different magnitudes of uptrends, including 3 – 6 month surges, likely 6 – 12 month rallies (into late-’23), and possibly/probably 1 – 2 year advances lasting into 2024… and potentially beyond.
Downside price objectives were being met at that time, monthly & multi-year cycles were bottoming, and the overall wave structure – though dramatically different in the two metals – was showing both Gold & Silver were poised to set multi-year (divergent) lows in late-2022. That analysis has been repeatedly validated and metals are nearing the time when a more accelerated advance could take hold.
All of that revolved around the ‘pivot point’ projected for Aug 14 – 25, ‘23. As that time frame was starting, the Weekly Re-Lay reiterated the unique synergy of corresponding market (and geopolitical) cycles and again detailed how the overall market scenario would likely play out (a small sample is on page 9; also see Opening Comments).
Along with many corroborating indicators, it identified why Silver was signaling a revealing bottom and should see a quick surge into early-Sept ’23 (as part of a larger advance). That remains the case and is still expected to lead to a subsequent 1 – 2 month peak in late-Oct/early-Nov ‘23 and a potential subsequent peak in Jan ‘24.
By setting lows on Aug 15 – 21, Gold & Silver fulfilled the latest phase of a consistent 22 – 23-week high-high-high-high-low-low-(
That dovetailed with Silver’s weekly HLS indicator, projecting a 1 – 2 month low by/on Aug 18, ‘23. Silver fulfilled that and projected a sharp, initial rally from that mid-Aug ’23 low into early-Sept ‘23. Early-Sept ‘23 is also the midpoint of its over-arching ~8-month/35 – 37-week low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that projects a future peak in Jan ’24.”
Gold & Silver fulfilled multi-month projections (since 3 – 6 month cycle highs in early-May ’23) for an overall decline into August 17 – 24 and reached the minimum downside targets leading into those cycles. A quick surge into early-Sept ’23 was/is expected to produce a subsequent, multi-week high (and reinforce future cycle highs in late-Oct/early-Nov ’23 and in Jan ‘24).
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! The setup of the XAU & HUI concurs. The 90/10 Rule of Cycles in Gold continues to project a sharp advance in Oct ’23 – in the final weeks leading into a (potential) early-Nov ’23 peak.
Where are Metals Likely to Rally in 4Q ’23? Will Middle East War Cycles Have an Impact??
How Does 90/10 Rule of Cycles Project Sharp Rally in October ’23?
Why are early-Nov ’23 Cycle Highs the Key to 2024 Outlook?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.