Gold, Silver, & Euro Poised For Highs (& Dollar Low) around ~July 14; Drop into Aug 14 – 25, ‘23.
07-12-23 – “Frequently, these publications will cite an ‘ideal’ scenario – in one market or another – that could unfold. There are two primary reasons for citing these, and often some secondary reasons, as a market trend or retracement unfolds:
- The first reason is the obvious one – to anticipate where a market might head.
- The second is often the more important one (depending on where a market sits when this ‘ideal’ scenario is discussed) – to test the accountability and validity of future analysis.
A prime example has unfolded in Bitcoin for much of 2023… fulfilling projections for rallies to 25,000 and then to ~30,000, with a drop to ~20,000 in between. After it peaked in mid-April, the ongoing outlook – the ‘ideal’ scenario – was for a pullback to ~25,000 followed by a new surge… In the ‘ideal’ scenario, that peak would occur in mid-July – ‘ideally’ on ~July 17…
Inherent in both of these, and the key to keeping similar outlooks in proper perspective, is the meaning of an ‘ideal’ scenario. This has been explained many times over the years but it is worth restating:
An ‘ideal’ scenario is simply (no more and no less) the perceived scenario that would fulfill the majority of applicable indicators or cycles – or both – at a given point in time. It does not imply that it is ‘ideal’ for a specific market participant (bull or bear; trend follower or congestion trader, etc.) or ‘ideal’ for another related market complex… or anything else.
It merely implies that scenario fulfills the greatest amount of indicators and – in most cases – reflects the most ‘normal’ market action (as opposed to extreme moves or objectives).
It usually reflects when a market would most closely follow the ‘textbook’ application of key cycles and/or indicators – often reflecting balance or an attainment of equilibrium, sometimes symmetry, in a given trend of a given market.
Another one of those ideal scenarios has been paving the way for subsequent ideal scenarios – in Gold, Silver and the XAU (and HUI) Index…
For almost two months, the Weekly Re-Lay described how the ideal scenario for Gold & Silver was to see a rally into – and multi-month peak during – early-May… ideally on May 3 – 5, ’23.
The corresponding cycles were often detailed and related price objectives also came into focus (2080 – 2100/GC & ~26.50/SI) and were published.
Both Gold & Silver reached those price targets in the first half of April and then consolidated for a few weeks. They needed to allow ample time to pass before the bullish cycles – that were ushered in along with the early-March buy signals in Gold – would reach their apex.
Sure enough, on May 4 Gold & Silver attacked their highs and set their highest daily closes of the entire ~2-month rally… but did not close above their April highs despite spiking above them. With Silver spiking to a slightly higher high during the May 5 trading session, both Gold & Silver reversed lower and fulfilled their oft-cited ‘ideal’ scenario of peaking on May 3 – 5, ’23.
In that case, both factors were almost equally important. The upside target provided the ‘ideal’ time for the intermediate uptrends to peak and the early-March buy signals to reach fruition. It also reinforced ongoing analysis for metals to set multi-month highs at one of their two most important cycle peaks in 2023 (see INSIIDE Track for discussion on the other future cycle).
That peak was preceded by a peak in the XAU & HUI Indexes – almost exactly 1 year (360 degrees) from their April ’22 peaks – in mid-April ’23. Since that time, the XAU has been adhering to its own ‘ideal’ scenario for the period from mid-April – mid-Aug ’23 – when the next multi-month low is most likely.
In the interim, both indexes set multi-week lows in late-June/early-July and were forecast to undergo rebounds to ~130 – 133/XAU & 254 – 257/HUI in the near term.
That was expected to coincide with the ‘ideal’ scenario for precious metals – a quick, sharp rally in Gold & Silver from July 10 – 14 that should see Gold surge to 1984 – 2000/GCQ & Silver to 24.60 – 24.80/SIU.
Following a July ’23 (secondary) peak, metals and the related indexes are expected to – in the ‘ideal’ scenario – decline into mid-Aug ’23. A low in the XAU at that time would fulfill an uncanny ~23-week high-high-high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and overlapping 45 – 51 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
More specifically, that 23-week Cycle Progression recurs on Aug 11 – 18, ’23. Corroborating that, a .618 retracement in time (28-week rally followed by 17-week decline) would reach fruition on Aug 7 – 14, ’23 [199-day rally & 123-day decline pinpoints Aug 14, ’23]. That is also the latest phase of a ~12-month high (Aug ’19) – high (Aug ’20) – low (Sept ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – (low; Aug/Sept ’23) Cycle Progression in the XAU.
Ideally, the XAU & HUI would ultimately drop back to (or below) their early-March lows – which now represent 4th wave of lesser degree support near 110.0/XAU & 210/HUI. Depending on the levels of impending (expected) highs, those downside targets could shift lower.
To reiterate, this scenario – particularly the cyclic aspect of it (XAU low on Aug 7 – 18, ’23) – is when the greatest synergy of cycles, timing objectives, and Cycle Progressions converge… creating the ‘ideal’ time for a multi-month low. More specific targets – in price and time – should emerge in the coming weeks…
The Dollar Index is fulfilling its weekly trend pattern – portending a drop back to 100.21/DXU. The weekly 21 MAC corroborated that after the Dollar Index rallied right to its weekly 21 High MAC (103.18/DXU) and reversed lower last week, generating an outside-week/2 Close Reversal lower on July 7. That was/is expected to spur a quick, sharp drop into July 14.
The Dollar is still expected to set its next multi-month peak on Aug 14 – 25, ’23 – the fulfillment of a 23 – 24 week & 11 – 12-week high-high-(high?) Cycle Progression. If that is going to be the case, the Dollar could extend the current decline into late-July (~8 weeks down) and then rally for ~4 weeks (50%).
The Euro is fulfilling the outlook for a rally into ~July 14 and would not show any signs of weakness until a daily close below 1.1037/ECU…
Gold & Silver have rebounded after Gold fulfilled a 28 – 29 day low (Mar 8) – high (Apr 5) – high (May 4) – high (June 1) – (low; June 29/30, ‘23) Cycle Progression (that could ultimately reinforce future cycle lows in late-August – two more 28 – 29 day cycles in the future).
As described this past weekend, this rebound has a good chance of making it back up to ~2000.0/GCQ by/on July 14 – where Gold has set a pivotal range-trading parameter for most of 2023…
Silver has related resistance at 24.60 – 24.80/SIU and is still likely to set its next multi-week high around July 14, ’23 – ~3 months/~90 degrees from its April 14 high and ~6 months/~180 degrees from its Jan 17 high.
The next multi-month cycle low in Gold is still expected in late-Aug ’23… A low on Aug 21 – 25, ’23 would complete both a 50% and a .618 retracement in time (both lows of the late-2022 double bottom are used to calculate the ensuing rally), a 16-week/26-week low-low-low (1/1.618) cycle, and a ~3-month/~90-degree low (Nov 23) – low (Feb 27) – low (May 25/26) – (low; Aug 23 – 28) Cycle Progression.
The XAU & HUI are fulfilling projections for a quick surge to ~130 – 133/XAU & 254 – 257/HUI.”
Gold & Silver remain below the lows set while fulfilling multi-month upside price targets AND cycles/timing indicators that peaked on May 3 – 5, ’23 (while convincingly reinforcing two future cycles). They completed initial sell-offs in May ‘23 with the weekly trends providing additional corroborating clues – projecting a new decline after a reactive bounce – that is ultimately projected to stretch into the second half of Aug ’23, when a myriad of weekly & monthly cycle lows converge.
From a broader perspective, the early-May ’23 peaks powerfully corroborated the other primary cycle focus for 2023 – the time frame in/around late-Oct/early-Nov ’23. That remains a decisive cycle, with some surprising expectations for the months leading into it! [The period surrounding early-Aug ’23 could provide additional reinforcement.] A strong rally could begin in the second half of Aug ’23 and last into late-Oct/early-Nov ’23.
All of this action, since late-2022, is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential with the Dollar Index already fulfilling multi-year upside targets and signaling that a major top is in the making! The Dollar is projected to set a future peak on Aug 14 – 25 while Gold is likely setting a multi-month low.
The XAU & HUI are similar and fulfilled projections for a strong rally into, and a multi-month top in, early-May ’23. In mid-April and early-May ’23, they reached convincing upside targets and signaled 3 – 6 month peaks and the onset of a 1 – 2 month corrections… which have been unfolding. They were expected to bounce into mid-July ‘23 and then sell off into the second half of Aug ‘23.
The XAU possesses the most consistent and uncanny weekly cycle – a 23-week high (Jun ’21) – high (Nov ’21) – high (Apr 18 – 22, ’22) – low (Sept 26 – 30, ’22) – low (Mar 6 – 10, ’23) – (low; Aug 14 – 21, ’23) Cycle Progression that portends a multi-month bottom on Aug 14 – 21, ’23 (greatest synergy of cycles on Aug 15 – 18, ’23). Related cycles in Gold & HUI overlap this period, projecting a multi-month bottom during that week or the week the days that follow (overall period of Aug 14 – 25, ’23).
How Does Early-May Peak Corroborate Aug – Nov ’23 Cycles?
Is a New MAJOR Bull Market Unfolding? If so, When is a Breakout Likely??
How Are Interest Rates & Inflation Creating a Unique Opportunity?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure for expanded analysis that addresses some of those questions.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.