Gold/Silver Enter Projected Nov ’22 Surge; Rally into Nov 11/14 Likely.
11/05/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver are entering new rallies in line with bullish cycles and signals in Silver and Platinum as well as the fulfillment of the daily trend pattern in Gold…
Gold & Silver remain above their Sept ’22 lows with Silver setting a series of four successively higher lows since Sept 1 (even as Gold did the opposite). In sync with its daily trend pattern – and the ideal intra-month pattern – Gold just spiked to new lows (as Silver again held support) and surged.
This reinforces the outlook for another sharp rally into Nov 11 – 16… when the next high is most likely. A rally into Nov 10/11 would also match the duration of the July 21 – Aug 10 rally and arrive ~90 & ~60 degrees (~3 and ~2 months) from the Aug 10 & Sept 12 highs.
As Silver has been steadily gaining ground (since Sept 1), Gold has been in a bottoming phase that included fulfilling a 66 – 69 day/~9.5 week high (3/08) – low (5/16) – low (7/21) – (low; Sept. 26 – 28) Cycle Progression with its late-Sept low. That low has held during two successive tests, ushering in the time (after the first 3 trading days of the new month) when an accelerated rally is most likely.
There are several reasons why it has continually been emphasized that the Sept 28 low should hold and why Gold & Silver should rally to higher highs in November. A few of them have been enumerated in recent weeks and should be reiterated since they influence upside objectives:
- Gold completed successive declines of ~equal duration (7 months each) while setting its late-Sept ’22 low. That was expected to be a multi-month low.
- Gold dropped to its weekly HLS (1648.6/GCZ) on Oct 14 – the extreme downside target for that week. That signaled an intermediate bottom should take hold within 1 – 3 weeks and then usher in a multi-week rally.
- Gold’s 4-Shadow Signal of July/Aug ’22 projected a subsequent drop to new lows followed by the largest rally since the Mar ’22 peak. It did drop to new lows and then rallied – matching the magnitude of its July/Aug ’22 rally (in half the time; a possible sign of developing, underlying strength).
The ensuing pullback is a ‘b’ wave decline and should give way to a ‘c’ wave rally to new 1 – 2 month highs (to fulfill the 4-Shadow Signal) – at least reaching ~1760/GCZ and potentially retesting intra-year trend resistance at ~1795/GCZ.
- Silver has remained positive and has been leading the way, projecting an overall advance from Sept 1 into at least mid-Nov and potentially into a convergence of weekly cycles in late-Nov/early-Dec ’22.
The longer that Silver waits before breaking above 21.00/SIZ, the higher its subsequent upside potential increases. Silver is now to the point where a daily close above 21.00/SIZ (ideally above its Oct 4 high of 21.31/SIZ) should spur a quick surge above 23.00/SIZ and is likely to extend that rally up to 24.50 – 24.90/SIZ.
Since early-July, Silver has also traced out an inverted head-and-shoulders with the neckline at ~21.00/SIZ (left shoulder = July 14 penultimate low, head = Sept 1 ultimate low, right shoulder = Oct 14 secondary low).
That also forms a type of range-trading pattern in which a close above 21.00/SIZ projects an equi-distant move as the ~3.50/SIZ range between the neckline and low – projecting a rally to ~24.50/SIZ. 24.50/SIZ is also where Silver initially found support after its early-March peak. The next level of support was ~21.00/SIZ… and then ~17.50/SIZ.
(On a weekly-close basis, Silver has traded in ~3.00/SIZ ranges since before the March ’20 low – with parameters at 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27 & 30.00/ SIZ. As a result, the likely scenario for a peak would be an intra-week spike up to ~24.50 and a weekly close at or below 24.00/SIZ – during whatever week that takes place – to reinforce that next range.)
Gold & Silver are adhering to daily & intra-month trend patterns with Gold spiking to new lows as both metals set intra-month lows in the first three trading days of Nov ‘22. Both have turned their intra-month trends up, projecting rallies into mid-Nov.
The XAU & HUI are rallying after retesting support (and the XAU’s range target near 95.00). They remain on track to surge into mid-Nov and set an intermediate high by/on Nov 11 – 18, ’22… when weekly cycles converge. Initial upside targets are at 117 – 120/XAU & 224 – 230/HUI… with extreme targets (for Nov ’22) at ~130/XAU & ~245/HUI.
Platinum & Palladium remain mixed after Platinum fulfilled a 12 – 13 week low-low-low-high-high-(low) Cycle Sequence at the late-Aug lows… and has steadily gained ever since. Platinum again closed above its weekly 21 High MAC and could turn the direction of that average up, in the coming week, with a rally to 973.0/PLF.
Over the next 4+ weeks, the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC will plunge – likely pushing the weekly 21 MAC higher and spurring an initial rally above 1040/PLF and potentially to ~1130/PLF – its range-trading target.
Like Silver, Platinum’s relationship to Gold was timed to shift in Sept ’22 and see proportionately-greater gains than Gold over the next 1 – 2 years. It has a 12 – 13 month low-low-low-low-high-high-high-(high; Mar/Apr ’23) Cycle Progression that portends the next multi-month peak in ~April ’23.
Palladium remains in a ~6-month trading range between ~1800 & ~2300/PAZ. This could remain the case through the month of November.”
Silver is validating projections for Sept ’22 shift when Silver begins to overtake Gold (reversal in Gold/Silver ratio) and sees stronger rallies due to multiple factors. Silver’s initial intermediate advance is projected to take it up to 22.50/SIZ with the potential to surge as high as 24.50 – 25.00/SI before the end of 2022. Platinum is showing similar signs of developing strength and should rally through November.
What Does (Potential) Shift of Gold/Silver Ratio Portend?
Could Platinum Surge with Silver?
How Does Current Action Corroborate 2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.