Gold, Silver & XAU Consolidating; Failing to Confirm Multi-Month Lows (Yet).
06/15/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Throughout 2020/2021, our publications highlighted the culminating 7th phase of America’s 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars (finales/shifts in 1781, 1821, 1861, 1901, 1941, 1981 & 2021) – projected to usher in a seismic economic and financial shift in the years and decades that follow.
That Phase VII included a new antagonist with a three-way battle between fiat (paper), hard (metals) and digital (cryptos) currencies.
A pair of Alerts published in May 2021 reiterated this, explaining why Bitcoin was about to enter the final stage of a massive bubble that should peak in 2021 (the title reflected that outlook). It had fulfilled the upside target for a wave v of 3 – with the April ’21 peak near 65,000/BT – and had nearly completed the projected correction to ~29,000/BT. That was forecast to usher in one final surge to new highs – ideally spiking above the April ’21 peak but topping only a little above 65,000/BT.
The May 27, ’21 Weekly Re-Lay Alert explained it this way:
5-27-21 – “The first five months of 2021 have powerfully reinforced the perspective on the current phase of ‘Currency Wars’ and the ongoing forecast – since 2015/ 2016 – that Gold and other anti-Dollar vehicles would move higher into 2021 (with accelerated advances projected for 3Q ‘20 – 2Q ‘21) as the Dollar corrected into 2021. At that point, the US Dollar was/is expected to set a multi-year low while Gold, Bitcoin, et al were forecast to set multi-year peaks.”
That built on what had been described in multiple issues of INSIIDE Track, including the May ’21 issue:
4-29-21 – “The markets have entered a momentous time when 5 – 10-year trends and shifts were projected to culminate, 40-year cycles and trends were projected to shift and larger-degree cycles – like the 80-Year Cycle of War – were projected to enter a new and decisive phase.
At least part of these shifts are also linked to the uncanny influence of the ~11-Year Sunspot/Solar Cycle that bottomed in late-2019 and is likely to accelerate higher in 2021 and 2022. That could create all kinds of unintended consequences…
Among the events or shifts projected for 2020/2021 were:
– Completion and transition of ongoing 40-Year Cycle of Currency War.
– Parabolic phase in Gold/Silver bull markets as well as Bitcoin/crypto bull markets.
– Food Crisis Cycles prompting substantially higher prices in grains and foodstuffs – whether supply or demand related.
– Related accelerated advances in grains, beginning with Soybeans in 2020 and shifting to Wheat (and Corn) in 2021 and back to Soybeans in 2022.
– Culmination of US Dollar correction from 2017 peak (and onset of new 1 – 3 year advance) – in the first half of 2021.
– Major bottom and onset of multi-year uptrend in interest rates, beginning in mid-2020.
– Onset of multi-year war cycle linked to 80-Year Cycle of War (1781, 1861, 1941, 2021) – beginning in 2021 and impacting several years that follow.
In crucial respects, all of these expectations are related. The key is identifying the connecting threads and acting accordingly…”
With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, it is now possible to assess these projections – some of which had been forecast for 5 – 10 years prior, pinpointing 2021/2022 as the time for their fulfillment and a massive shift:
Culmination of Currency War – √
Parabolic rally in Bitcoin/cryptos – √
Food Crises – √
Soybean, Wheat & Corn Surges – √
US Dollar Bottom – √
Major uptrend in interest rates – √
Onset of War Cycle – √
Gold & Silver are consolidating below their June 3 highs, peaks that were set during the latest phases of corresponding ~6-week & ~12-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progressions. In the case of the 6-week cycle, that high perpetuated a ~6-week low-low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression…
As stressed in mid-May, when the latest bottom was taking hold:
5/18/22 – “In 2022, Gold & Silver were expected to set multi-month peaks in ~March & Aug/Sept ’22 with a sharp sell-off in between. They have seen the first peak and the ensuing sell-off. Now the focus begins to shift to 3Q ’22 – when the next peak is expected.”…
The first thing that still needs to occur, if a bullish scenario is going to unfold, is for Gold & Silver to turn their intra-month trends up with daily closes above 1878.6/GCQ & 22.54/SIN.
The XAU & HUI are consolidating after plunging right to their Jan ’22 lows in May ’22, rebounding but failing to turn their daily trends up, and then dropping back to retest that support. They should not give weekly closes below those levels if any additional highs are to remain possible in 2022. They need daily closes above 130.00/ XAU and 262.00/HUI to give initial signs of a multi-week bottom.”
Gold, Silver & XAU/HUI Indexes have produced ‘normal’ rebounds into early-June… but have not confirmed multi-month lows. If they are going to add to recent gains, however, they MUST turn their intra-month trends up in the coming days. With recent highs fulfilling ~6-week & ~12-week Cycle Progressions, it is doubly significant that recent highs be exceeded if a bottom is intact.
What Would Failure to Turn Intra-Month Trends Up Signal?
How Does Gold/Silver Action Factor into March ’22 Cycle Highs??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.