Gold, Silver & Gold Stocks Attacking Extreme Upside Targets During Feb. 20/21 Cycle Peak? Is Window of Opportunity Poised to Slam Shut?
Gold, Silver & Gold Stocks Attacking Extreme Upside Targets During Feb. 20/21 Cycle Peak? Is Window of Opportunity Poised to Slam Shut?
02/20/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Narrow Window of Opportunity: “To correlate or not to correlate… that is the question.
Gold has entered an anticipated period, the (perceived) final weeks of a ~6-month uptrend… the culmination of this phase of its bull market.
Since Jan./Feb. 2018, the outlook for Gold was to see another comparable peak (similar to the late-Jan. 2018 peak) wait until the next phase of an uncanny 55 – 59 week cycle. That cycle would return on Feb. 11 – March 15, 2019 – fulfilling a 55 – 59 week low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
Gold corroborated that outlook when it bottomed in mid-August ’18, the midpoint of that cycle. The next phase of that related 27 – 29 week cycle would come into play on Feb. 18 – March 8 – when the culmination of a ~6-month rally was forecast. Gold could fulfill both of those cycles with a peak at any time.
Since the late-Sept. buy signal in Gold (3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month buy signal addressed in INSIIDE Track), it has been projected to see a strong advance into ~March 2019, with a penultimate peak in late-Jan./ early-Feb. During each 1 – 2 week swing of the past few months, that outlook is consistently repeated.
In late-Dec./early-Jan., two lesser-degree cycles (half of the 27 – 29 week cycle… and then half of that 13 – 14 week cycle) have governed Gold’s action and reinforced the outlook for an initial peak in late-Jan./early-Feb. (another 50% division of the smallest 6 – 7 week cycle) and a more significant peak in late-Feb.
A high on Feb. 19 – 26 would perpetuate a 6 – 7 week low-low-low-low-high-(high) AND a 13 – 14 week low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
So, Gold has entered a decisive period when an intermediate peak could take hold at any time.
Perhaps the most convincing sign of an impending peak has come from the action of this week, following the Dollar’s projected high in mid-Feb. To reiterate from the Feb. 9, 2019 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Gold & Silver corrected after fulfilling intermediate cycles and expectations for a multi-week peak in late-Jan./early-Feb 2019 (on the way to a higher magnitude peak in March 2019).
This correction could stretch into mid-Feb. and set the next (ascending) 1 – 2 month low during the latest phase of a ~90-degree cycle in Gold that has timed lows in mid-May, mid-Aug. & mid-Nov. 2018… The Jan. 24 low produced a validating 20 – 21 day high-low-(low) Cycle Progression targeted for Feb. 13 – 14…
One of the more intriguing aspects of this entire rally in Gold – from Sept. ‘18 into the present – is that it has coincided with a rally in the US Dollar, from Sept. ’18 into the present.
Both are within a 1% move of their 6 – 9 month highs and both are within 2 – 4% moves of 18-month highs.
The daily & weekly moves have not been in perfect lockstep but the overall trends have moved in tandem. In some cases, it was similar to the old adage ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’. A higher Dollar became the enemy of equity prices in Sept. – Dec. ’17.
As a result, Gold rallied on (at least partially) safe-haven status. That is why trading on ‘textbook’ inter-market correlations is dangerous.
The question is what could happen if the Dollar does experience a decent sell-off from mid-Feb… It might open a narrow window of opportunity for Gold to accelerate higher, since it now has almost six months of upward-developing momentum under its belt.
That is often how these trends work, with the largest and fastest moves at the end of a cycle.
As a result, the action of the next 1 – 2 weeks – and the extent of the developing correction – should provide important clues as to the potential for another surge in precious metals in the near future…
Similar to Gold & Silver, the XAU has the potential for another substantial advance if it bottoms by mid-Feb. and holds support at 71.64 – 72.85.”
The Dollar did turn down – right after rallying into Feb. 14 and retesting its high – and sold off sharply, allowing Gold and the XAU to see accelerated rallies. How soon could that ‘window’ slam shut?…
Gold just surged to dual weekly LHR levels (extreme upside targets for this week) at 1344.5 – 1345.2/GCJ while testing the monthly Raw SPR (1350.0/GCJ) and overall monthly resistance (the projected high for Feb. 2019) at 1350.5 – 1363.4/GCJ. That comes into play just below 3 – 5 year resistance at 1365 – 1377/GC.
At the same time, Silver retested its high (16.20/SIH) while twice neutralizing its daily downtrend. So, it would take a daily close above 16.20/SIH to turn the daily trend back up and to signal a breakout higher.
So, Gold & Silver are at make-or-break levels, from which an intermediate correction could develop…
The XAU rallied after pulling back to its ascending daily 21 High MAC and bottoming a little above trend support at 72.64 – 72.85. It… could still peak on Feb. 20/21 – the latest phase of a 21 – 22 day low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
Like Gold, the XAU is in a parabolic phase – accelerating to the upside and also attacking its monthly projected high/resistance at 80.42 – 82.56. That also includes the descending monthly 21 High MAC.”
Gold, Silver and Gold/Silver Index (XAU) are fulfilling extreme upside price targets at the same time daily, weekly & monthly cycles are producing the greatest synergy for a decisive peak (Feb. 20/21). Silver’s daily trend pattern and weekly extremes are creating a textbook setup for a divergent peak… and subsequent plunge back below 15.000/SI.
How Quickly Could a Sell-off Emerge… and How Long Should it Last??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.