Gold, Silver & XAU Validating Nov. 13 Cycle Lows; Multi-Week Rally Forecast to Follow… Future (Potential) Acceleration Point in Focus.
Gold, Silver & XAU Validating Nov. 13 Cycle Lows; Multi-Week Rally Forecast to Follow… Future (Potential) Acceleration Point in Focus.
11/17/18 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver sold off into Nov. 13 – the time when XAU cycles forecast a low. With both metals expected to see a quick, sharp 2 – 3 week rally into late-Nov./early-Dec. (daily cycles have their greatest synergy in early-Dec), a low needed to take hold during the past week – which appears to have unfolded.
In the case of Gold, that perpetuated geometric cycles – creating the 6th consecutive low at a ~45-degree (43 – 46 days) increment. They occurred on 4/06, 5/21, 7/03, 8/16, 9/28 & 11/13. Silver retested its low and then reversed higher, signaling the start of a new advance that could reach ~16.00/SIZ.
The action since mid-August continues to be a base-building phase following monthly cycle lows in Aug./Sept. 2018. With the XAU maintaining overlapping cycle lows into mid-Nov., that set the parameters for this overall base and should now yield to more of an uptrending phase for the next couple months (potentially stretching into Feb./Mar. 2019)… even though it should be in stages.
Gold’s action around its weekly 21 MAC continues to corroborate this outlook and it now enters the time – based on that indicator and its inversely-correlated 21 MARC – when a 3 – 4 week surge becomes more likely (since the 21 MARC will be dropping sharply for the next 4 weeks). That validates the cycle outlook.
While late-Nov./early-Dec. is the timing when a third 2018 peak would be seen, that does not mean it will be the culmination of a new advance (just a stopping point). Gold would only need to set & hold those highs for a few weeks to validate that 2018 outlook (and then begin a new rally in late-Dec.)…
The XAU remains in a weekly uptrend until a weekly close below 63.75. It fulfilled intermediate analysis for a drop into Nov. 13, the latest phase of a ~2-month/60-degree Cycle Progression, and immediately reversed higher.
By spiking to new lows, the XAU showed that its secondary low (‘b’ or ‘2’ wave low) was waiting until that Nov. 13 cycle low (as opposed to being intact from the Oct. 31 low and merely retesting that).
Despite spiking below that intermediate support (63.75/XAU) during successive weeks, the XAU never gave a weekly close below it, which means it never neutralized its weekly uptrend. That leaves it on course for a sharp 2 – 3 week rally into late-Nov./early-Dec.
On a slightly larger basis, the XAU could see an overall advance into late-Jan./early-Feb. 2019 – the same time of year it set peaks in 2018, 2017 & 2015 and the same time it set its major low in 2016. It has a ~360-degree low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression targeted at late-Jan./early-Feb. ’19.”
Gold, Silver & the XAU fulfilled the potential for a final round of selling into cycle lows on Nov. 13 – when multi-week, multi-month and even multi-year cycles bottomed in Silver. Silver did spike to new lows as Gold set a secondary low in preparation for a larger-magnitude advance… that could impact precious metals’ action in 2019 and 2020. Gold stocks and the Gold/Silver Index (XAU) concur and also set a decisive low on Nov. 13. An intermediate rally is expected to follow, potentially accelerating higher at a specific future point.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.