Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium Project Jan./Feb. ‘18 Peak!
Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium Project Jan./Feb. ‘18 Peak!
01/05/18 INSIIDE Track:
“01/05/18 – Gold & Silver set another low in Dec. 2017, the latest phase of a 1 – 2 year bottoming process, following major cycle lows in late-2015 & secondary cycle lows in late-2016. Gold set this low above its mid-2017 low, reinforcing & adjusting the ‘1-2’, ‘1-2’ nature of this wave structure in which Gold creates successive rallies & declines with each decline bottoming at a higher level.
Gold did, however, violate its Oct. low, showing that an additional ‘1-2’ did NOT develop in the final months of 2017. Instead, that new low just showed that the latest ‘2’ wave low was not yet intact. (In other words, the Dec. low took the place of the Oct. low, in the overall wave structure.)
The weekly trend pattern & weekly HLS indicator projected an intermediate low for Dec. 11 – 15, precisely when Gold & Silver bottomed. From an intra-year price & trend perspective, Gold bottomed at 1238.3/GCG – just above the high of its year-opening range (1236.0/GCG). That allowed Gold to maintain its intra-year uptrend as it retraced ~50% of its intra-year gains.
As long as Gold remains above its Dec. low, it is perceived to be in a ’3’ of ’3’ of ’C’ wave advance – normally a more dynamic rally. The action since mid-Dec. has initially validated that perception – with Gold completing an outside-month/2 Close Reversal higher in December.
On an intermediate basis, Gold has the next phase of an ongoing 18 – 21 week cycle – that could produce a multi-week peak – coming into play between mid-Jan. & early-Feb.
If this advance stretches into the final week of that cycle (early-Feb.; consistent with monthly cycles, previously discussed), it would also complete a 29-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression & a 14-week drop/7-week advance (50%) sequence.
On an intermediate basis, Silver could also still set an important high in Feb. 2018. Since its bottom in Dec. ’15, Silver has had 5 significant advances – each lasting ~2 months (Dec. ’15 – Feb. ’16, Mar. – May ’16, May – Jly. ’16, Dec. ’16 – Feb. ’17 & Jly. – Sept. ’17).
A similar, ~2-month advance would take Silver higher into Feb. ’18. A peak in Feb. 2018 would also complete successive ~7-month advances (Dec. ’15 – July ’16 & July ’17 – Feb. ’18) AND a ~9.5 month high (July ’16) – high (mid-April ’17) – high (Feb. 2018) Cycle Progression…
Traders could have entered new long positions in Gold at 1275.0/GCG down to 1247.0/GCG (avg. entry ~1261.0/GCG) and should now [reserved for subscribers only]. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!…
The XAU fulfilled its 2 – 3 month & 6 – 12 month outlooks by declining to new multi-month lows in Dec. 2017 – the latest phase of an 11 – 12 month low-low-low Cycle Progression.
It did that while dropping right to its weekly HLS at 75.77/XAU – signaling an impending multi-month bottom. The recent low also created a 21 – 22 week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression originating from the early-Feb. intra-year peak.
The XAU traded sideways throughout 2017 – the majority of which was a ~10-month correction. That ‘a-b-c’ decline (Feb. ’17 high – July ’17 low – Sept. ’17 high – Dec. ’17 low) created some wave similarity – in which the ‘c’ wave decline nearly matched the magnitude of the preceding ‘a’ wave decline – reinforcing that perceived wave structure.
The redeeming aspect of that ~10-month correction was that each test of support generated little downside follow-through. Although the XAU spiked to new lows in mid-March, May, July & Dec., each time was only by .5 – 1.5 points and it never gave a weekly close below the prior low.
That was a sign of resilience and of a slowly developing (secondary) bottom that just needed to wait for weekly & monthly cycles to bottom out in early-Dec. On Dec. 12, the XAU triggered a multi-week buy signal (see Weekly Re-Lay) that has already spurred a surge to 2 – 3 month resistance – around 88.00/XAU.
Multiple monthly targets, extreme targets & resistance projections group at 92.87 – 93.06/XAU in January and could be tested before month-end.
Platinum triggered a new sell signal in early-Dec., inverting its daily cycles and portending a low along with related cycles in Gold & Gold stocks. It has since rallied & neutralized its weekly downtrend. This could trigger an overall rebound into late-Jan./early-Feb. before an intermediate peak.
Palladium remains in a powerful uptrend – projected to last into Feb. 2018. Both a 7-year high-high cycle (from the Feb. 2011 peak) and an intervening 3.5 year high-high-(high) Cycle Progression (from the Aug. ‘14 peak) project a multi-quarter high for 1Q 2018…”
Gold, Silver, the XAU, Platinum & Palladium are all projecting continued surges into mid-to-late-Jan. ’18 – when weekly, monthly & quarterly cycles project a multi-month peak. The XAU has a very specific upside price target at 92.87 – 93.06 while Gold is targeting a retest of its Sept. ’17 high (~1365/GCG). The timing of those tests should clarify when a multi-month peak is most likely.
Weekly & monthly cycles turn back down in Feb. 2018 and could trigger significant sell-offs (Palladium has yearly cycles turning down in Feb. 2018).
In the case of Gold, this is all part of an evolving ‘C’ wave rally (see diagram in Jan. 2018 INSIIDE Track) that could ultimately take it back to 1425 – 1450.0/GC in 2018 or 2019. An intra-year high is expected in Nov./Dec. 2018 with the lion’s share of any advance immediately preceding that peak.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.