Gold/Silver Poised for Imminent Lows; Project New Surge into Early-December ’23!
11-11-23 – “Gold & Silver are correcting after their initial October surges (waves ‘1’), creating what is likely a lower magnitude wave ‘2’ retracement. The weekly 21 MAC has not yet turned up in Gold, delaying the onset of another accelerated advance and preventing it from spiking up to extreme targets.
It would take a rally above 2010/GCZ this week (or above 1981/GCZ on Nov 20 – 24) to turn the weekly 21 High MAC up and signal new strength.
In the interim, Gold spiked down to its weekly HLS (extreme downside target for this past week) at 1937/GCZ…
Gold initially surged in October, setting its highest weekly close, since late-July ’23, on Nov 3, 2023 and fulfilling weekly cycles. During that initial rally, it made it to 2020/GCZ, so price analysis maintains higher potential for this overall advance.
The weekly trend remains the most important filter. Gold needs a weekly close above 2019.7/GCZ to turn the weekly trend up and elevate this advance to the next higher magnitude.
Silver has retraced ~50% of its initial advance after peaking in line with weekly cycles in mid-October ’23. That peak reinforced analysis for a subsequent high to emerge in mid-January 2024. In between now and then, Silver could rally back to 25.40 – 26.00/SIZ (possibly higher).
A rally into the middle half of January 2024 would perpetuate a ~36-week low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression as well as a .618 rebound in time (22 weeks down, 14 weeks up).
From a broader perspective, long-term decennial and geometric cycles are focused on 2023 – 2025 as a likely time for a major rally in Silver (see Nov ’23 INSIIDE Track for details).
The Sept 2022 low was expected to be a multi-year low and the recent Oct 2 – 6, ’23 low was likely the end of Silver’s wave II retracement.
It fulfilled a textbook .618 retracement in time – 35 weeks up & 22 weeks down – as well as ~11-week high-high-(low) AND ~15-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progressions.
The ongoing wave structure has convincingly validated the outlook for an initial wave ‘I’ rally into early-May ’23 followed by a wave ‘II’ decline to the 4th wave of lesser degree support before a (likely) more complex wave ‘III’ would begin (in Oct ’23).
The GLD ETF fulfilled that outlook precisely (ETFs act as a continuous contract, smoothing out time premiums) – dropping right to its downside target (168.19/168.35; early-Oct ‘23 low was 168.30/GLD) as Gold & Silver attacked related levels.
That ushered in the ‘1’ of ‘III’ advance – the recent surge – that should pave the way for future rallies if/when a breakout of Gold’s triple-top occurs (see April 11, ’23 issue of The Bridge for related analysis on this ultimate breakout signal).
Gold & Silver are correcting after fulfilling more than half of their upside targets during the first surge. Silver is poised to set a secondary low in the coming days (Nov 10 – 15, ’23) – the latest phase of a 26 – 29 trading day high-high-high-high-low-(low: Nov 10 – 15, ’23) Cycle Progression.
The XAU & HUI have also retraced after peaking in mid-October. This is a likely wave ‘2’ (of III) decline and should soon give way to a wave ‘3 of III’ advance…
These indexes remain poised for rallies to 130 – 133/XAU & 251 – 254/HUI in 4Q ‘23. November’s LHR is 132.52/XAU & December’s current monthly LHR is at 132.31/XAU (but could rise), creating four successive LHRs at 129.94 – 133.81/XAU. The monthly 21 High MAC is near 131.80/XAU. They need weekly closes above 119.32/XAU & 233.88/ HUI to reverse their weekly trends up.
Platinum & Palladium remain weak with Platinum plunging to new lows and now projecting a lower low (instead of a higher low) during the next phase of a ~7-week high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression on Nov 17 – 24, ‘23.
Copper is attempting to bottom after fulfilling a ~39-week high-high-(low) Cycle Progression. However, it would not turn its weekly trend up until a weekly close above 3.7440/HGH.”
Gold & Silver (and XAU/HUI) are fulfilling ongoing projections for a sharp multi-week rally in 4Q ’23 as metals enter the time when major advances are forecast. Middle East War Cycles returned in October ’23 and were powerfully fulfilled, spurring this latest surge in metals. A new surge is expected to take hold in the coming week and trigger rallies into early-December ’23 & ultimately into the first half of January 2024.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! This should have a dramatic impact on the US Dollar and could coincide with a pullback in interest rates.
Why & When is Gold Likely to Attack ~2070/GC… and Potentially ~2130/GC?
How Do Early-October ’23 Cycle Lows Reinforce 2024 Outlook?
Why Do They Project Subsequent Surges into early-Dec ’23 & early/mid-Jan ’24?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts as well as discussion on why, how & when Gold is most likely to break out to the upside following a multi-year ‘flat correction’.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.