Gold & Silver Reinforce New 40-Year Cycle: May 4/5 Spike High Likely.
04-27-23 – “Outlook 2023 – 40-Year Cycle Progression
A new 40-Year Cycle has begun. That has been a topic of discussion for the past ~10 years – identifying 2016 – 2021 as the culmination of the previous 40-Year Cycle and 2022 as the onset of a new one… often the most volatile time within cycles.
Since much of this discussion has centered around the sequence of 40-Year Cycles in America’s history – dating back to 1776 – 1781 when a previous phase reached a crescendo – and since it would be helpful to have a naming system to distinguish each one, we will simply call this new one 40-Year Cycle VIII or 40YC VIII. The previous phase completions were as follows:
40YC I – 1776 – 1781
40YC II – 1816 – 1821
40YC III – 1856 – 1861
40YC IV – 1896 – 1901
40YC V – 1936 – 1941
40YC VI – 1976 – 1981
40YC VII – 2016 – 2021
40YC VII Culmination
Over the past decade, INSIIDE Track repeatedly published expectations and projections related to past 40-Year Cycles and detailed outlooks for 2016 – 2021. These projections included:
— A new Currency War between hard (gold) and fiat (paper) currency, with a new addition – digital (crypto) currency. Gold was forecast to enter the latest phase of its bull market (which began in 1999 & 2001) in 2016 and advance – on balance – into late-2020/early-2021. Digital currency was similar, although its limited cycles projected a rally into late-2021.
— The return of Disease/Influenza Cycles in 2019 – when a 10-Year & 17-Year Cycle would collide with the trough of Solar Cycle 24/25 – the time when outbreaks have often (historically) taken place.
— Coinciding with the return of Disease/Influenza Cycles in 2019, an uncanny sunspot-related cycle of ‘Global Shaping Events’ & Stock Panic Cycles was forecast for late-2019/early-2020 – linked to China.
— A related finale in a 40-year stock market bull cycle that began in 1982 – and saw a decisive intervening low in 2002 (the 20-year midpoint) – was forecast to peak in early-2022.
A 40-year & 20-year low-low-(high; 2022) Cycle Progression – as well as related ~3.25-year, ~6.5-year, ~2-year, ~16-month & ~8-month cycles – all projected a major, multi-year stock market peak to take hold in 2022 (‘most likely in 1Q ‘22, ideally in early-Jan ‘22’).
— A related 80-Year Cycle of War would emerge in late-2021 – late-2025, ushering in 40YC VIII. (The real global-altering events, however, are cyclically more likely in 2027 – 2029!)
— A new climate warming phase in 2016 – 2021 as a 40-Year Cycle of Drought entered its parabolic phase (finale) and ultimately reached fruition, forecast to shift to a related Cycle of Deluge/Floods in 2022/2023. This was very similar to the shifts experienced in 1982/83, 1942/43, 1902/03 & 1862/63…
— Along with the crescendo of this latest 40-Year Cycle of Drought, the late-2010’s/early-2020’s were projected to trigger Food Crisis Cycles and spur massive, inflationary surges in grain and food prices.
— The return of Flood Cycles, immediately after the culmination of Drought Cycles in 2021, would usher in a serious challenge related to topsoil… and ultimately create a new challenge for crop production.
Synergy, Synergy, Synergy
There were many corroborating cycles that reinforced these previously-published conclusions. One involved another transition phase that was also projected to be momentous – the shift from Solar Cycle 24 into Solar Cycle 25. That occurred in Dec 2019 – reinforcing all these other cycles expected to culminate, and ultimately transition, in 2020/21 – 2025.
40YC VIII Onset; Food & Flood Cycles
The beginning of 40-Year Cycle VIII – in 2022/2023 – was forecast to be just as dangerous and uncertain as the final years of 40YC VII. The 80-Year Cycle of War actually ushered in 40YC VIII and initiated what should ultimately be a dramatic ‘week of time’ – a 7-year period from late-2021 into late-2028.
The preceding ‘week of time’ (2014 – 2021) laid the groundwork for this, timing the first 7 years of Russia’s moves back into Ukraine. Those Crimea battles were fought exactly 160 years (4 periods of 40-Year Cycles & 2 periods of 80-Year War Cycles) from the original Crimean War in 1853 – 1856… reinforcing the cyclic nature of war.
The ‘terror famine’ or ‘great famine’ of 1933 – also perpetrated against Ukraine, by the USSR – connects those 40-Year & 80-Year Cycles.
As the ‘breadbasket of Europe’ entered a phase of upheaval in early-2022, America’s breadbasket is seeing the early challenges of these new Flood Cycles with dangerous flooding along the Mississippi River. At the same time, America’s Cornucopia – the state of California – has suffered far worse flooding that is still expected to extend into 2024 and seriously impact crop production of many varieties.
These flood cycles are also being felt in places as diverse as Utah and Ft Lauderdale, FL. 2023/2024 is fulfilling analysis dating back many years and there are still specific expectations (for 2023/24) yet to be fulfilled…
Gold & Silver surged after bottoming in line with Gold’s intermediate support and its correction target (~1820/GCJ, triggering a multi-week buy signal on March 8) and Silver’s multi-month cycles. The early-March ‘23 low fulfilled a ~6-month high (early-Mar ’22) – low (early-Sept ’22) – (low; early-March ’23) Cycle Progression and a precise 50% retracement in time (4 mos up into early-Jan ‘23, 2 mos down into early-Mar ‘23) in Silver.
That reinforced the 1 – 3 month outlook for a new rally from early-March into early-May ’23. A peak in early-May ’23 would fulfill a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold.
Both have already reached upside price targets so an intermediate peak could take hold (or have taken hold) at any time. The action of March/April ’23 further validates the 1 – 2 year trend, structure and outlook… linked to what was projected to be major lows set in the final third of 2022 – Silver in Sept ‘22 and Gold in Nov/Dec ‘22.
That dovetails with analysis in interest rates, the Dollar and other markets/factors that often help or hinder Gold/Silver rallies.
A recent issue of The Bridge (a Weekly Re-Lay publication) further examined the wave structure and its potential for Gold & Silver. An excerpt of that analysis is included above and ties in with the chart on page 7. In addition, there was also a discussion on the sometimes-correlated factors that were ushering in an ideal scenario beginning in 4Q ’22… [See April 11, 2023 The Bridge – Gold, Silver & Elliott Wave Structure for details]
Those factors should continue to play a role in the movement of Gold & Silver, including ongoing analysis for [reserved for subscribers]… That could be reinforced by an initial peak in early-May ‘23…
The XAU & HUI surged after bottoming in early-Mar ’23, the latest phase of a 21 – 23-week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Sept ’22 low. That was corroborated by these indexes attacking their monthly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) in Feb ‘23 – fulfilling what was described in early-Jan…
These indexes are expected to set their next major peak in [reserved for subscribers]…”
Gold & Silver have reached multi-month upside targets after advancing since fulfilling the 1 – 2 year outlook for lows in Sept ’22 (SI) and Nov/Dec ’22 (GC). At that time, they entered the ideal setup for the onset of a bullish 1 – 2 year period in precious metals. Platinum is signaling something similar. 2023/24 holds the potential for some abrupt surprises for precious metals (in and out of the markets), with multiple advances projected.
The second advance was projected to begin in early-March ‘23 and last into May 3 – 5, ’23, when the next intermediate high is cyclically most likely. Based on the late-April sell-offs (which were not that bearish but warn of a future decline), a final spike high is still likely in early-May before metals would enter a prolonged corrective phase and experience larger sell-offs.
The XAU & HUI are similar and projected a strong rally to new intra-year highs (into early-May ’23), with upside price targets now being fulfilled. A retest of those targets could be seen during a final spike high in early-May ’23.
How High Could Gold & Silver (&XAU) Reach in 2023?
Is a New MAJOR Bull Market Unfolding… or Just a Comparable Advance??
Will the Outlook for Bonds (Bottom in ~March ’23) & Interest Rates Concur?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.