Gold/Silver Shift on Track; Gold Poised to Retest Low Before November Surge.
10/29/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver are hovering above recent lows and could enter new rallies in the coming week in line with bullish cycles and signals in Silver and Platinum…
Gold & Silver remain above their Sept ’22 lows with Silver setting a series of three successively higher lows since Sept 1 (even as Gold did the opposite). They could see another 1 – 2 week rally as a majority of cycles & indicators are still favoring that 1 – 2 month bottoms are in place.
A daily close above 1675.5/GCZ would turn the daily trend up in Gold and confirm a multi-week bottom. A daily close above 19.77/SIZ would reinforce Silver’s developing advance. Gold has been in a bottoming phase since fulfilling a 66 – 69 day/~9.5 week high (3/08) – low (5/16) – low (7/21) – (low; Sept. 26 – 28) Cycle Progression.
That cycle broke down into thirds, creating a 21 – 23 day/15 – 18 trading day low-high-low-low Cycle Sequence that was perpetuated with the Oct 20/21 low… and recurs on Nov 11 – 16… when a high is appearing slightly more likely. A rally into Nov 10/11 would also match the duration of the July 21 – Aug 10 rally and arrive ~90 & ~60 degrees (~3 and ~2 months) from the Aug 10 & Sept 12 highs.
There are several factors that reinforce the potential for recent lows to hold for several more weeks…
- Gold completed successive declines of ~equal duration (7 months each) while setting its late-Sept ’22 low. That is expected to hold for 1 – 2 months.
- Gold dropped to its weekly HLS (1648.6/GCZ) on Oct 14 – the extreme downside target for that week. That signaled an intermediate bottom should soon take hold and usher in a multi-week rally.
- Gold’s 4-Shadow Signal of July/Aug ’22 projected a subsequent drop to new lows followed by the largest rally since the Mar ’22 peak. It did drop to new lows and then rallied – matching the magnitude of its July/Aug ’22 rally (in half the time; a possible sign of developing, underlying strength).
The ensuing pullback should be a ‘b’ wave decline and give way to a ‘c’ wave rally to new 1 – 2 month highs (to fulfill the 4-Shadow Signal) – at least reaching ~1760/GCZ and potentially retesting intra-year trend resistance at ~1795/GCZ.
Silver appears to have completed the pullback in mid-Oct and should now rally into (at least) Nov 10 – 15 – matching the duration of its two latest rallies.
Silver has a convergence of weekly cycles in late-Nov/early-Dec ’22 that could stretch that rally and time the peak of this advance (at least in Silver).
Gold & Silver are mixed with Gold’s daily trend pattern leaving open the possibility for a spike to new lows before a new rally takes hold. Daily closes above 1675.5/GCZ & 19.77/SIZ are needed to signal that lows are intact.
The XAU & HUI are rallying after retesting support (and the XAU’s range target near 95.00). They held above their mid-Oct lows, reinforcing the likelihood for an overall rally into Nov 7 – 18, ’22… when a future high is most likely. They turned their daily trends and then their daily 21 MACs up – reinforcing this outlook… they are expected to see an initial surge to 117 – 120/XAU & 224 – 230/HUI.
Platinum & Palladium are mixed after Platinum fulfilled a 12 – 13 week low-low-low-high-high-(low) Cycle Sequence at those lows. The next phase of this cycle comes into play in late-Nov ’22… The subsequent phase is in late-Feb ’23 – the same time when other 90/180/360-degree cycles come into play – and is much more likely to be a high. The only question is what this intervening cycle will be…
A rally into late-Nov ’22 would complete successive rallies of equal duration (12 weeks). A rally into late-Nov ’22 would also fulfill a 50% rebound in time (25 wks down/12.5 wks up).
Platinum turned its weekly trend up after closing above its weekly 21 High MAC – confirming recent strength. Over the next 5 weeks, the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC will plunge – likely resulting in the weekly 21 MAC turning up. This action should spur a quick rally above 1040/PLF.
Palladium turned its weekly trend back down even as it remains in a ~6-month trading range between ~1800 & ~2300/PAZ. This could remain the case through the month of November.”
Silver is steadily validating what has been discussed throughout this year – that Sept ’22 would usher in the time when Silver begins to overtake Gold (shift in Gold/Silver ratio) and sees stronger rallies due to multiple factors. Silver’s initial intermediate advance is projected to take it up to 22.50/SIZ with the potential to surge as high as 24.50 – 25.00/SI before the end of 2022. Platinum is showing similar signs of developing strength and should rally into/through November.
What Does (Potential) Shift of Gold/Silver Ratio Portend?
Could Platinum Surge with Silver?
How Does Current Action Corroborate 2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.