Gold/Silver Shift; Sept 28 Lows Project Sharp Rally into Oct 10 – 14 (22.50/SIZ Target).
09/28/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Gold & Silver are mixed with Silver (and other metals) remaining above the early-Sept lows while Gold continued to decline after failing to neutralize its daily downtrend or daily 21 MAC downtrend during recent rebounds. In contrast, Silver initially surged and turned its daily trend up in mid-Sept.
That led to a ‘b’ wave retracement that had Silver neutralizing that daily uptrend – with this week’s spike low – but then re-entering the daily uptrend on today’s close. This is also the time when Silver’s inversely-correlated daily 21 High MARC plunges from 19.38 to 17.86/SIZ over a 4-day period and creates the potential for a bullish period on Sept 28 – 30…
The next daily cycle (high) convergence is on Oct 10 – 13 and could time a future peak. As long as Silver does not turn its daily trend down in the interim, it could rally to higher highs into then.
As for Gold, it’s entire decline (since March 8, ’22) unfolded in a 66 – 69 day/~9.5 week high (3/08) – low (5/16) – low (7/21) Cycle Progression that projected a multi-week low for Sept. 26 – 28 (and then early-Dec ’22 when a ~9.5 month Cycle Progression also recurs; that is also when Gold would retrace 50% – or 28 months – of its 56-month advance into Aug ‘20).
It needs a daily close above 1697/GCZ to show signs of a multi-week low taking hold.
The XAU & HUI dropped to new intra-year lows, reinforcing the 2022 outlook and the significance of the April ’22 cycle peaks. In the case of the HUI, it is now matching the duration of its Aug’16 – Sept ’18 decline, dropping from Aug ’20 into Sept ’22.
Their April ‘22 peaks were also in lockstep with an overlapping 29 – 31 week high-high-low-low-(high) Cycle Sequence (most notable in HUI) that helped time most of the primary 3 – 6 month turning points of the past three years. That could produce another multi-week high in Nov ‘22… IF the recent lows hold.
As for now, these indexes have re-entered neutral territory and would turn positive if they can rally to new intra-month highs (above 107.67/XAU & 204.22/HUI) by the close of September.”
Silver is slowly validating what has been discussed throughout this year – that Sept ’22 would usher in the time when Silver begins to overtake Gold and sees stronger rallies due to multiple factors. Silver’s initial intermediate advance is projected to take it up to 22.50/SIZ, but the subsequent action is what could be the most revealing. Both Gold & Silver are setting the stage for a Sept 28 reversal higher and the onset of accelerated rallies into Oct 10 – 14. The XAU & HUI concur.
How Quickly Can Silver Surge to ~22.50/SIZ? What is Subsequent Upside Target?
What Does (Potential) Shift of Gold/Silver Ratio Portend??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.