Gold & Silver ‘Sweet Spot’ Portends Sharp Surge into Late-March ‘24!
03-06-24 – “For the past ~18 months, INSIIDE Track & the Weekly Re-Lay have detailed why & how Gold should bottom in late-2022, trace out some initial ‘1-2’, ‘1-2’ wave formations in 2023, and ultimately break out to the upside in 2024.
Part of that outlook had to do with the ‘lifting’ of Dollar & interest rate burdens – ushering in a ‘Sweet Spot’ for these metals to surge.
As described in the excerpt on page 2 (from the April 11, 2023 The Bridge – Gold, Silver & Elliott Wave Structure), the late-2022 cycle low in Gold & Silver – and corresponding peak in the US Dollar – coincided with the true peak in inflation.
However, the pressure of continuing interest rate hikes – until inflation had declined and neared the Fed’s target range – would still contain Gold & Silver rallies as they steadily trace out those initial rallies and pullbacks, creating the foundation from which a breakout rally would likely occur in 2024.
It would only be when the general consensus removed the likelihood of any additional rate hikes that Gold & Silver would likely enter the accelerated phases of new bull markets. Inflation would still be in the markets and the economy, and its impact has been supporting Gold & Silver for the past ~16 – 18 months, but the major ‘headwind’ needed to be removed before a breakout advance would be most likely in metals.
On an intermediate basis, Gold would have its best chance for an accelerated advance when another competitor – cryptocurrency – was nearing the end of its accelerated advance… allowing room for the anti-Dollar baton to be passed to Gold.
That coincided with weekly & monthly 21 MAC & 21 MARC action & setups, daily & weekly cycles, and even the 2-Year Cycle – all of which were projecting a sharp move higher in late-February/early-March 2024. That is another affirmation to the scenario that has been forecast to take hold in 2022 – 2025… and beyond.
In late-2022, the US Dollar Index set a multi-year peak while the pair of ‘anti-Dollar’ antagonists – Bitcoin & Gold (digital & hard currency) – set multi-year lows.
As described back then, this ushered in the next phase of the 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars and should trigger major advances in cryptos and Gold – from 4Q 2022 into 4Q 2025 – and a corresponding decline in the US Dollar.
The previous phase – of that 40-Year Cycle – had culminated in 2016 – 2021, when Gold and related anti-Dollar ‘currency’ were projected to undergo an initial 4 – 5 year advance.
That would be the perfect ‘bookend’ to a 40-Year Cycle that began in 1976 – 1981 with the global monetary order’s official divorce decree from Gold (AKA the Jamaica Accord in 1976) and the resulting plunge in the US Dollar versus Gold – as Gold surged from ~100 to over 850/GC between August 1976 & January 1980.
2016 – 2020/21 was forecast to see a new surge in Gold, but nothing close to the magnitude of the 1976 – 1980 advance. It was merely the first phase of a larger overall advance in Gold.
The second phase has been forecast to unfold during the opening years of this new 40-Year Cycle (2022 – 2025… and potentially longer).
At the same time, Bitcoin was projected to set a major, multi-year peak in November 2021 and undergo a bubble bursting decline similar to that seen in the XAU in the early 2010’s, the Nasdaq in the early-2000’s, and the Nikkei in the early 1990’s.
Related cycles projected that plunge to last into at least September 2022. That would create a bottom from which a new multi-year bull market would emerge. As stated in September 2022:
9-08-22 – “September 2022 could time a critical shift in the overall ‘Currency War Cycle’. While that does not necessarily imply it will mark an extreme high or low in any specific combatant (in this ‘war’), it could trigger some surprise counter-trend moves that begin to reshape perspectives.
One important factor, that could help trigger an intermediate shift, involves the US Dollar Index. It signaled a multi-year bottom in 1Q ‘21 and has been on track to surge above 110.0/DX ever since. It just reached that upside target…”
All of this coincided with the Dollar Index reaching major, 10 – 15 year upside targets and completing a textbook 5-wave advance from its 2008 bottom.
That set the stage for a new decline – from late-2022 (the fulfillment of multiple 7-Year & 14-Year Cycles) into late-2025. And that was, and still is, expected to usher in major advances in Gold, Silver & Cryptos… as well as some other fiat currencies.
On Friday, March 1st, 2024, Gold set its highest weekly close of all time. Since then, it has progressively set daily record high closes. The breakout is underway!
As with most breakouts, this is expected to be a multi-stepped process beginning with this initial breakout and then a pullback to test breakout support.
An example of this, on a much different level, just took place in Silver on the daily charts. Since January 5th, Silver had repeatedly bumped up against multi-week resistance near 23.75/SIK. On March 4th, it surged and closed above that resistance – signaling an initial breakout on a 1 – 2 month basis.
It quickly tested ~24.40/SIK – an initial upside target – and then retraced to 23.785/SIK today, retesting that breakout resistance (now support) and then entering a new surge. On a multi-year basis, Gold could do something similar in the coming weeks and months. The specifics will be laid out in this, and forthcoming, publications.
Gold & Silver are surging after Silver held intra-year trend support for 6 consecutive weeks as Gold completed a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high… and then both triggered new buy signals in mid-February. Gold is validating the bullish weekly & monthly 21 MAC scenario that has been developing in recent weeks & months.
Based on multiple wave objectives (rally from Oct ’23 low = Oct ’22 – May ’23 rally; rally from Feb ’24 low = Oct – Dec ’23 rally, etc.), Gold could see a surge to ~2300/GCJ in the coming months (or weeks).
That is also a pair of long-term wave objectives and would allow the current advance (from Sept/Oct 2022) to double the magnitude of the 2015 – 2018 advance and be .786 (2DGR) the magnitude of the 2018 – 2020 rally.
Additionally, April Gold has traded in consistent ~150.0/GCJ ranges since November 2022, with parameters at ~1850, ~2000 & ~2150/GCJ. If it breaks out to the upside, as expected, the next range trading target would be ~2300.0/GCJ.
On a 1 – 2 week basis, a surge back to ~2170/GCJ – where Gold’s weekly LHR intersects its all-time intraday peak and range target – appears likely. (Related daily extremes could spur a spike as high as 2210 – 2220/GCJ in the short term. The latest 3 daily LHRs are grouped at 2202 – 2212/GCJ.)
If it does that in the coming days, Gold would provide a perfect form of symmetry – first declining for ~22 weeks from ~2160 to ~1860/GCJ and then rallying for ~22 weeks, from ~1860 back up to ~2160/GCJ. (That is a type of minimum objective. Since Gold is perceived to be in an intensifying uptrend, it should overshoot those target levels.)
Silver needs a weekly close above 23.76/SIK to reverse the weekly trend up & confirm a multi-month bottom. That would also generate a range-trading signal with targets at ~25.25 & ~26.75/SIK. Silver turned its weekly 21 MAC up last week but needs a weekly close above ~24.40/SIK to validate.
That is exactly where Silver’s initial surge peaked (before the pullback to daily breakout resistance turned into support), reinforcing the significance of that upside target/resistance. A weekly close above 24.56/SIK would magnify developing strength, allowing Silver to turn its intra-year trend up.
Daily extremes in Silver would allow for a spike up to 25.61 – 25.78/SIK in the short term.
An initial surge into March 6 – 8th was expected to unfold and is now being fulfilled. The intra-month trends have turned up, so additional upside is likely in the coming days. In addition, the current front month of Gold (April ’24) just closed above the high set in early-December ’23 (in the front month at that time).
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors could have entered/added to long positions in Gold & Silver around 2025/GCJ & 23.00/SIK and can now risk daily closes below the March 1st lows. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The XAU & HUI retested their October ’23 lows in late-February and held, providing further validation to the 12.5 – 13.0 month cycle that bottomed at that time (see HCP diagram on page 4) and analysis for a new multi-month rally to follow. They were/are poised to surge in the current/coming weeks, in sync with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs.
The action of the past 3 weeks has been similar to the three weeks leading into early-March 2023, before the XAU embarked on a 5-week surge.
In both cases, the XAU suffered a final sharp sell-off for ~2 weeks, bounced, then retested that low ~2 weeks later. In 2023, that subsequently led to an initial surge of ~16.00/XAU points during the first 7 trading days and then an overall advance of ~35.00/XAU points over a ~5-week period.
2024 is poised to see something similar.
The most bullish thing the XAU could do in March is to rally and close the month above 126.30/XAU. That would turn the intra-year trend up (closing above the January ’24 high) at the same time it is closing above its descending monthly 21 High MAC.
If that occurs, the monthly 21 High MAC would almost assuredly turn up in April ’24 – a textbook reversal sequence – since the inversely-correlated 21 High MARC plunges to 114.97/XAU in April ’24.
On a near-term basis, a rally above 115.00/XAU was expected to turn multiple indicators positive – which is now unfolding – and will likely trigger more upside momentum while confirming the buy signal triggered at 106.00 down to 102.60/XAU.
1 – 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 106.00 down to 102.60 in late-February in line with the strategy published at that time. Risk/exit on a weekly close below 108.00/XAU.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Gold & Silver are confirming their mid-February ’24 buy signals, projecting accelerated surges in March 2024. An overall (intermediate) advance is projected from the mid-February cycle lows into late-March 2024 and up to key price targets (with Gold surging to new all-time highs).
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! This should have a dramatic impact on the US Dollar in 2024/2025. March 2024 should provide the next corroboration to that outlook. Gold is acting as the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’ and is poised to break out to the upside in March 2024!
How Does Gold Outlook Portend Related Shocks in Other Key Markets??
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts as well as discussion on why, how & when Gold is most likely to break out to the upside (in 2024) following a multi-year ‘flat correction’.
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Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.